LAS VEGAS – Now that Brandon Lowe has reached free agency as one of eight MLB players to do so with a qualifying offer, one of baseball’s smallest sluggers is expected to be among the biggest bats on the market.
After the two-time All-Star second baseman led the team in home runs, RBIs, slugging percentage and OPS and was a finalist for National League Gold Glove and Silver Slugger awards, the Pittsburgh Pirates extended Lowe the qualifying offer of $23.15 million on Nov. 2.
That move serves as more of a formality to secure draft pick compensation should Lowe sign elsewhere. The real pursuit for Lowe begins Tuesday at the MLB GM Meetings at Aria Hotel, where Pirates general manager Ben Cherington is expected to address the team’s offseason plans following an 82-80 finish that marked their first winning season since 2018 but fell short of their goal of making the playoffs.
Even as he’s expected to decline the one-year contract, Lowe will figure heavily into those decisions – whether it’s to re-sign him to a multi-year deal or how to compensate for losing his production at the plate, on the field and as a clubhouse leader who was their nominee for the Roberto Clemente Award for his charitable work and community service.
As much as bringing Lowe back appears a no-brainer, the Pirates have to weigh the pros and cons of the investment that would be required to re-sign him and the impact it would have on their roster construction.
As pros go, Lowe’s numbers speak for themselves. Despite his diminutive stature – he’s listed at 5-foot-9, 181 pounds – Lowe provided the most power on the Pirates. His 35 home runs marked back-to-back seasons with 30 or more homers for the first time in his nine-year career, and his 96 RBIs fell three short of his career-best in 2021.
Lowe thrived in 122 games in the second spot of the batting order, with a solid slash line of .260/.331/.493. His 29 doubles ranked second to Bryan Reynolds, who led the majors with 40. And Lowe’s 94 runs scored trailed only Reynolds, who led the Pirates with 102.
But the Pirates also have to consider Lowe’s cons. His blemishes with the bat in his hands begin with a 28.7 strikeout rate and 35.4% whiff rate, as his 189 strikeouts broke Pedro Alvarez’s single-season franchise record.
While the lefty-hitting Lowe took advantage of the short porch in right field at PNC Park, where he hit 20 homers and had 56 RBIs, his splits showed that he fared far worse against left-handed pitching. Where Lowe batted .279/.360/.550 with 23 doubles, 27 homers and 77 RBIs against righties, he had a .223/.270/.378 slash line with six doubles, eight homers and 19 RBIs against southpaws.
Another drawback is that Lowe struggled against breaking balls, batting .217 with a 42.7% whiff rate. Although Lowe played in 150 games – again, second only to Reynolds’ 162 – the Pirates dropped him to fifth in the order in eight games, mostly against left-handed starters.
It’s no coincidence that the Pirates had their worst records in the months that Lowe was least productive. They went 11-15 in June, when he batted .198 with a .691 OPS (but also had seven doubles, six homers and 20 RBIs) and 12-15 in August, when he batted .227 with five homers and 11 RBIs.
Conversely, Lowe followed with two of his best months, posting a .313/.356/.469 slash line with six doubles and 14 RBIs in July and a .317/.398/.598 slash line with seven homers and 14 RBIs in September, when the Pirates went 15-9.
There is no arguing the value of Lowe’s defense. He made the biggest turnaround in baseball, going from a minus-14 defensive runs saved with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2025 to plus-13 with the Pirates last season. Switching surfaces from turf to grass helped quell one of the biggest concerns, as Lowe has a history of knee and lower-back injuries. Lowe also credited Pirates infield coach Chris Truby for offering advice on adjustments such as adding a pre-pitch bunny hop to get on his toes.
If there’s a knock, it’s that Lowe occupied the natural position of Nick Gonzales, whose switch to third base was a bit of a disaster. Where Gonzales finished fourth in the NL with a .303 batting average, his minus-15 DRS ranked worst among all third basemen. If Lowe leaves, the Pirates could shift Gonzales back to second base and insert three-time Gold Glove finalist Jared Triolo at third base or address the hot corner through a trade or free agency.
But the Pirates are better with Lowe in their lineup. It comes down to cost. After making $11.5 million in the final season of his six-year, $24 million contract signed with Tampa in 2019, Lowe has been projected to make anywhere from as low as $45 million over three years by Jim Bowden of The Athletic to $80 million over four years by ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel to $150 million over five years by Keith Law of The Athletic.
That could put the 32-year-old Lowe out of the Pirates’ price range, considering a couple factors. For one, four of their highest-paid players next season – right-handed starter Mitch Keller ($18.4 million), outfielder Bryan Reynolds ($15.25 million), first baseman/right fielder Ryan O’Hearn ($15 million) and righty reliever Luke Weaver ($5 million) – are all in their 30s.
To lock up Lowe to a long-term deal could prevent the Pirates from allocating their money to sign extensions with someone like center fielder Oneil Cruz or a young starting pitcher. They have 10 players eligible for arbitration and must also address needs in the bullpen and the infield through trades or free agency.
If Lowe signs elsewhere for more than $50 million, the Pirates will receive a compensatory pick after the first round of the 2027 MLB Draft. If he signs for less than $50 million, the pick follows the second round.
As much as the Pirates would love to have Lowe return, he’s expected to be one of the best draws in free agency. Bringing him back on a lucrative long-term deal would bolster their lineup but could come at the cost of signing a young star, unless they are willing to continue spending.
It’s up to the Pirates to decide whether they want to say they want to make the playoffs or pay the price to be a legitimate contender.