The Mid-American Conference has always thrived on chaos. It’s the kind of league where an undefeated favorite can get tripped up on a Tuesday night in November and where programs without massive budgets still carve out moments in the national spotlight.
Toledo is the rightful +230 favorite since it has been the model of consistency under Jason Candle — nine straight winning seasons, multiple 11-win campaigns, and a knack for knocking off Power Four opponents. Still, only two MAC titles in a decade means there’s pressure to convert consistency into more hardware.
The Rockets’ 2024 struggles were tied largely to a stagnant run game, so Candle overhauled the backfield via the portal, bringing in Chip Trayanum (Kentucky) and Kenji Christian (NC A&T) behind a bolstered offensive line. Quarterback Tucker Gleason has the tools and weapons — including standout receiver Junior Vandeross III and NIU transfer Trayvon Rudolph — to bring the offense back to its usual efficiency.
Defensively, Toledo should again be one of the MAC’s stingiest, with a veteran secondary leading the charge and an infusion of portal talent shoring up the front. With Kentucky as the only projected underdog spot on schedule, the path to a third MAC crown under Candle is right there.
Ohio’s 2024 title run was one of the more impressive coaching jobs in recent MAC history, but a leadership change puts the Bobcats in new territory. Brian Smith slides into the head role after Tim Albin’s departure, inheriting quarterback Parker Navarro and running back Sieh Bangura — a backfield that can carry games if the rebuilt offensive line holds up. The loss of top receiver Coleman Owen hurts, but there’s enough speed on the outside to keep defenses honest.
Retaining defensive coordinator John Hauser was critical, as his units have been among the MAC’s best in both efficiency and explosiveness prevention. The secondary is loaded with experience and depth, though the front seven will need to develop quickly after heavy departures. Ohio has won 31 games in three years; keeping that pace will hinge on whether new starters gel fast enough to avoid a post-title slump.
Buffalo’s rapid turnaround under Pete Lembo turned heads, jumping from three wins to nine in just one season. With 16 starters back, the Bulls have every reason to believe they can take the final step to a MAC championship. Running back Al-Jay Henderson is the centerpiece of an offense that averaged over 35 points per MAC game in 2024, and he runs behind one of the league’s more experienced lines.
New quarterback Ta’Quan Roberson may not have big-play chops like his predecessor, but he’s surrounded by capable receivers in Victor Snow and Nik McMillan.
The defense could be one of the best in the conference, headlined by pass-rushing terror Kobe Stewart and veteran linebackers Red Murdock and Dion Crawford. If the secondary improves against deep balls, Buffalo’s combination of returning production and schedule breaks could make them the most complete team in the MAC.
At +1200, my dark horse target is Northern Illinois, who played spoiler early last season with a shocking win at Notre Dame, but roster turnover has left Thomas Hammock with a near-complete rebuild. The Huskies’ offense has been stagnant for two years, so Hammock tapped former University of Charleston head coach Quinn Sanders to inject life into the scheme.
Quarterback Josh Holst, strong in the team’s bowl win, will be tasked with finding rhythm behind an inexperienced but physically imposing line. Sophomore running back Telly Johnson Jr. leads a young backfield, while the receiving corps remains a question mark.
NIU returns only a handful of starters, with edge rusher Roy Williams and corner Jacob Finley as the headliners. Transfers will have to hit immediately for the Huskies to contend, but with a track record of overachieving and a coach who thrives on physical football, NIU has the tools to disrupt the MAC race once again.
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