Sean Barnard gives his prediction and preview on for the American Athletic Conference ahead of the 2025 college football season.
The college football season has arrived with a blank slate for how this season will be painted. Plenty is up for grabs in the American Athletic Conference (AAC), with this being one of the more open conferences in college football. Army is looking to defend its 2024 conference title and holds the second-best odds of winning the championship game again this season. Tulane enters as the betting favorite on DraftKings Sportbook, with six teams holding odds of +700 or shorter.
Let’s dive into the outlook for the conference ahead of the 2025 college football season and look at which bets on DraftKings Sportsbook make the most sense.
Tulane (+300 to win AAC)
Tulane has come a long way in a short amount of time as a football program. They went 2-10 in the 2021 season and averaged 4.2 wins per season between 1999 and 2021. But they have gone 32-10 over their last three seasons and become one of the most respectable G5 programs of late. The Green Wave went 9-5 last season and 7-1 in conference play. This was a slight step back from the 11+ wins they tallied the previous two seasons, before Jon Sumrall’s first season as head coach. Tulane still peaked at 18th in the AP Poll and returns 52% of its production from last year. They lost the final three games of the season against Memphis, Army, and Florida to prevent an even more impressive record.
Eight of last year’s starters were lost to power-conference programs — headlined by QB Darian Mensah (Duke) and RB Makhi Hughes (Oregon). Tulane landed 20 transfers who started at least one game for FBS teams last year. Quarterbacks Kadin Semonza and Brendan Sullivan transferred in from Ball State and Iowa. They also added FAU transfers RB Zuberi Mobley and WR Omari Hayes, as well as All-Sun Belt center Jack Hollifield from Appalachian State. They also return a pair of all-conference offensive linemen and several key pieces of the defense. Tulsa likely took a slight step back from the quarterback production that was brought by Darian Mensah, who led the conference in completion percentage and QB rating last year. But Sumrall did a nice job surviving his first season at the helm and will have more stability this year. The track record for Tulane is strong in recent years, and they did a nice job filling the holes of the portions of the roster that were picked over by the transfer portal. Look for them to match their win total of last year and have a legitimate chance of taking a step further and returning to double-digit wins.
Best Bet: Over 8.5 Wins (+120)
Navy (+380 to win AAC)
The Midshipmen are coming off a 10-3 record last season, which marks the program’s best record since 2019. This will mark Brian Newberry’s third season at the helm, and he helped the program double its win total from 2023 to 2024. Newberry has introduced a more modern offensive approach compared to the previous option system. 63% of last year’s production is returning, including 74% of the offensive unit. This starts with Blake Horvath at quarterback, who threw for 1,353 passing yards and 13 passing touchdowns while adding 1,298 non-sack rushing yards and 17 touchdowns with his legs. Eli Heidenreich also returns after tallying 1,115 yards from scrimmage and nine touchdowns last year.
There is more turnover to deal with on the defensive side of the ball, but Navy still returns 13 of the 20 players to record 100+ snaps last year. This includes five of the six players with at least five tackles for losses and some notable players in the secondary. They ranked in the top 30 in college football in turnovers forced and red zone touchdown rate last season, and the program has a strong defensive track record from before Newberry took control. It is a relatively difficult schedule for the Midshipmen, but the matchup against Notre Dame feels the only truly unwinnable game, and even the Fighting Irish proved they weren’t immune to a significant upset last year. Keeping the continuity at the key positions the way they did is impressive, and look for them to build off their 10-win season last year by sitting right near the top of the AAC from start to finish this year.
Best Bet: Over 8.5 Wins (-125)
UTSA (+450 to win AAC)
Jeff Traylor waited patiently for his first collegiate head coaching job after dominating the high school scene and bouncing around with assistant jobs at the University of Texas, SMU, and Arkansas. He got the chance at UTSA starting in 2020 and has done an impressive job building up the program. The Roadrunners won 32 games from 2021-23, but dropped to 7-6 last year, which was the worst winning percentage across Traylor’s tenure. UTSA started the year 3-5 and ripped off four wins to close the season and still finished above .500. This leaves some intriguing momentum to build off, and 64% of their total production is returning, which marks the second-best rate in the conference. This includes 82% of the offensive production.
Owen McCown returns at quarterback after tallying 3,424 passing yards and 25 touchdowns last season, as well as eight additional offensive starters. This doesn’t include a pair of starting offensive linemen from 2023 who missed last year due to injury and are set to be back this season. Five players with at least 28 catches are back, as well as running back Robert Henry. There are more questions about the defense, with only six of the 19 players to tally 200+ snaps returning. This does include a pair of impact defensive tackles, breakout edge rusher Vic Shaw, and CB Owen Pewee. They brought in plenty of transfer portal talent, headlined by Baylor DT Kaian Roberts-Day, TCU LB Shad Banks Jr., and Maryland S Brandon Jacob. UTSA is loaded with size, physicality, depth, and has a continuity edge over just about the entire rest of the conference. They are projected favorites in 10 games this season. Expect the lesson to be learned from last year’s slow start and for UTSA to be ready to hit the ground running. Not only am I backing the win total of over 7.5 at -140 on DraftKings Sportbook, but I am backing Traylor to lead the team to their first American Athletic Conference championship in program history.
Best Bet: UTSA to win the AAC (+450)
Memphis (+550 to win AAC)
Ryan Silverfield is entering his sixth season as Memphis’ head coach and has improved the program’s record in three consecutive seasons. The Tigers went 11-2 last year, which marks the best record since Mike Norvell’s tenure. Their two losses came to UTSA and Navy last year, in which they allowed 100 combined points. Memphis also lost just about every notable starter from last year’s roster, with its 40% ranking the second-worst in the AAC. Left tackle Chris Adams and defensive end Williams Whitlow Jr., are the only full-time starters returning.
While they are essentially starting from scratch, Memphis did a nice job in the transfer portal. Brendon Lewis is expected to step in as the starting quarterback after throwing for 5,330 yards and rushing for 2,108 over his past five seasons at Colorado and Nevada. They brought in six offensive line transfers and one JUCO addition at the position. 22 different starters saw at least 100 snaps on defense last year, and only three of these are returning. Silverfield brought in five linemen, six linebackers, and 10 defensive backs through the portal to address this. There are a few big names, such as Florida State S Omarion Cooper, JMU CB Chauncey Logan, and Indiana tackle Marcus Burris Jr. Jordan Hankins took over as defensive coordinator last year and brought an increase in aggression. While they were too vulnerable to big plays and paid the price at times, the schematic change was noteworthy. Ultimately, it feels there are too many new faces in new places for there not to be some growing pains out of the gates. Silverfield deserves the benefit of the doubt to an extent, but this win total is too high for my liking based on the level of roster turnover.
Best Bet: Under 8.5 Wins (-145)
Army (+650 to win AAC)
Army is coming off its best season in program history, in which they went 12-2 and won the American Athletic Conference. Jeff Monken has altered the program for the better and will enter his 12th season as head coach. The Black Knights had averaged just 2.9 wins per season across the 17 years before Monken’s arrival and are averaging 8.9 wins per season since he took over. They finished with double-digit wins three times and finished ranked twice across the past eight years. Last year marked their first season in the conference, and they will look to build off the success.
Senior Dewayne Coleman is expected to step into the starting quarterback role and saw some limited action last year. Noah Short and Hayden Reed return as a dynamic duo in the backfield, and two all-conference linemen are also back with the team. Defensively, only eight of the 18 defenders with over 200 snaps logged are returning. This includes LB Andon Thomas and S Casey Larkin, who combined for 10 tackles for losses and six interceptions last year. The defensive track record is strong from the program, and they have not struggled to maintain the level of production while making changes on the roster over the past few seasons. If the quarterback play can live up to last year, Army should be right back in the contending mix. Unfortunately, this is easier said than done, with Coleman not inspiring confidence in his limited opportunities last year. It is also fair to be concerned that the conference will have a better book on Army’s unique style in their second season in the conference. I am bracing for some regression this season and for their second season in the AAC to come with some additional resistance.
Best Bet: Under 7.5 Wins (-140)
South Florida (+700 to win AAC)
Alex Golesh is entering his third season as head coach at South Florida and has finished with a 7-6 record in both years thus far. They lead the conference in returning production with 67% of last year’s roster coming back, which ranks 11th in the entire country. The Bulls overcame a season-ending injury to Byrum Brown last year, with Bryce Archie replacing him at quarterback. Both quarterbacks are back this year. Brown is the better runner and less mistake-prone, but Archie shaped up to be solid by the end of last year. This is a better quarterback outlook than many other teams can say.
Three of the top running backs and two top wide receivers are not returning. But Keshaun Singleton returns with his level of big-play ability, and four wide receivers were brought in through the transfer portal. Defensive improvement is necessary, but there were some positive steps taken last year under defensive coordinator Todd Orlando. 13 of the 20 players with over 200 snaps are returning, and 10 of the 12 incoming transfers are juniors or seniors. The defense went from atrocious in 2023 to just pretty bad last year. If they can take a further step forward, they could join the contending conversation. With a stable quarterback position and plenty of returning talent, look for South Florida to maintain their win total or potentially take another step forward.
Best Bet: Over 6.5 Wins (-120)
North Texas (+1200 to win AAC)
Eric Morris enters his third season as head coach at North Texas. He led the program to a 5-7 record in their first season in the AAC and finished 6-7 last year. If nothing else, North Texas will continue to be exciting. They led the country with 44 fourth-down attempts last season and are not shy to attempt a big play. In 25 games under Morris, the Mean Green have scored 35+ points 14 times. However, they are just 1-10 in games that they did not tally at least 35 points.
North Texas made a change at defensive coordinator with Skyler Cassity coming over from Sam Houston. He brought in several players along with him, with DE Briceon Hayes, DT Richard Outland Jr, LB Trey Fields, and CBs David Fisher and Da’Veawn Armstead all following him to North Texas. They will be expected to establish the foundation of this Mean Green defense. Drew Mestemaker looked primed to serve as the starting quarterback and flashed his big-play ability in last year’s First Responder Bowl, which included a 70-yard touchdown run. Mestemaker is a cool story who started as a walk-on and had not started a game at quarterback since ninth grade, but has made the most of his opportunity. Albany transfer Reese Poffenbarger will also challenge him. With more defensive optimism than has been the case and the typical high-flying offense in place, expect North Texas to be prepared to run teams off the field again this season. Look for them to take another slight step forward with some pulse of defensive production taking some significant pressure off the offense.
Best Bet: Over 6.5 Wins (-150)
East Carolina (+1800 to win AAC)
East Carolina made a somewhat surprising decision to fire Mike Houston after starting 3-4 last year. After back-to-back winning seasons in 2021 and 2022, the Pirates had gone just 5-14 since the start of 2023. This seemed to be the rallying cry the program needed with East Carolina closing the season 5-1 under interim head coach Blake Harrell, winning four consecutive games by an average of 19 points in the process. While some of this was the benefit of a friendly schedule, it was enough for the program to show confidence and remove the interim tag, making Harrell the full-time head coach.
Quarterback Katin Houser returns, along with the two most explosive wide receivers in Anthony Smith and Yannick Smith. But star running back Rahjai Harris is no longer with the program, as well as three offensive line starters. 15 of the 20 defenders who logged 200+ snaps also left. The pass rush should still be strong, and Indianapolis CB Key Crowell and Western Kentucky CB Jordy Lowery transferred in after combining for 11 interceptions and 18 pass breakups last season. East Carolina sits firmly in the middle of the pack of the AAC talent pool. If things break completely right and the momentum they showed in the second half of last season is sustainable, they could play their way into the contending conversation. But the defense could take a notable step back, and Houser has interception issues that he did not fully solve with 11 notched across his nine games last year. This is a win total that could come down to the last game of the season, but I am backing the Pirates to take a slight step back as Harrell gets his full footing as the full-time head coach.
Best Bet: Under 6.5 Wins (-150)
UAB (+15000 to win AAC)
UAB strayed away from the typical pool of head coaching candidates by hiring former NFL QB and ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer back in 2023. Across his two seasons in charge, the Blazers have gone 7-17. This is a huge step back from the 8.3 wins per season the program averaged across the previous seven seasons. The offense was relatively solid last year, averaging 26.2 points per game, but UAB was a disaster defensively. Steve Russ has been brought in as defensive coordinator with the hopes that he can change this after previously coaching at Air Force.
Quarterback Jalen Kitna, left tackle Jon Darius Morgan, and safety Sirad Bryant are returning this year. Unfortunately, this is it for the returning starters. 30 incoming transfers were brought in, and some progress will need to be shown with Dilfer’s seat heating up. WRs AJ Johnson from ETSU and Evan McCray from Wingate are expected to play a role after each averaged over 15 yards per catch last season. UAB is only favored in two games this season and will need to overachieve by a significant margin to make any sort of noise. Ultimately, it feels as if their level of talent does not stack up to most of the conference, and we could be heading toward the end of the Trent Dilfer head coaching experience. Expect the offense to still look competent, but for the Blazers to fail to get stops at a regular enough rate and end up in the loss column more often than they would like.
Best Bet: Under 4.5 Wins (-150)
Tulsa (+1500 to win AAC)
Tre Lamb is stepping in for his first season as the head coach of Tulsa. This marks the third new head coach in the past four seasons after Kevin Wilson went a collective 7-16 during his time leading the team. Lamb is just 35 years old, but already has led Gardner-Webb to FCS playoff appearances in 2022 and 2023 and improved ETSU from 3-8 to 7-5 in his lone season in charge.
Quarterback Kirk Francis remains in place, as do key wide receivers Grayson Tempest and Zion Steptoe. Lamb brought in three power conference running back transfers, a new batch of wide receivers, and eight offensive line transfers. 12 transfers join the defensive side of the ball, which has a decent defensive line in place. He also signed six transfer linemen who started at least one FBS game last year. Tulsa has regressed for four straight seasons, and Lamb is attempting to do a lot in a short amount of time. This is a difficult challenge, but his track record is strong. Expect the offense to be in the mix for one of the best in the conference and for the defense to still give them enough of a chance. There will be some bumps in the road, but the incoming transfer class is strong, and expectations feel lower than they should be. It will take multiple seasons to reach the heights Lamb and the program desire, but expect some steps in the right direction this year.
Best Bet: Over 3.5 Wins (-115)
Rice (+15000 to win AAC)
It will be a new era of football for Rice as well, with Scott Abell taking over the head coaching role. Abell went 47-28 across his time at Davidson, reaching the FCS playoffs three times and never finishing with a record below .500. He brings with him an exciting offense that averaged 315.6 rushing yards per game in 2024. It is based out of a shotgun spread option attack, which is unlike anything seen in the conference. Returning running backs Quinton Jackson and Taji Atkins averaged a combined 6.0 yards per carry as backups last year and are expected to be leaned on heavily this season.
Sophomore Chase Jenkins has been named the starting quarterback after beating out AJ Padgett and Drew Devillier. But he was recruited to run a very different offensive system than what he will now be asked to do. Rice’s offensive line is fairly inexperienced, and the defense lost three of its top four pass rushers along with four starting defensive backs. If the season goes south, it will likely be due to the lack of reliable defensive production. Expect Rice to be far more entertaining than they have been in past seasons, but it will likely take some additional time for Abell to fully catch the roster up to his desired scheme. In the long run, it is worth buying some stock in Rice, but this season could be a bit of a wakeup call in the short-term.
Best Bet: Under 3.5 Wins (+110)
Florida Atlantic (+15000 to win AAC)
Florida Atlantic will roll out another first-year head coach as 33-year-old Zach Kittley takes control of the program. He opened some eyes while serving as the Western Kentucky offensive coordinator and served in the same role at Texas Tech. This will be his first head coaching experience, and he will look to uplift a program that went 22-35 in its last five seasons. Kittley made quick work of making this roster his own. Right tackle Alex Atcavage is the only returning player to start more than seven games, last year, and 35 players have transferred in.
Quarterback Caden Veltkamp transferred in, along with fellow Western Kentucky standout WR Easton Messer, who tallied 793 receiving yards and four touchdowns last year. This duo will be key to settling in quickly and is expected to be called upon for significant roles. Kittley brought in several small-school stars on the defensive side of the ball. The transfer class is on the younger side with a lot fewer proven transfers in comparison to some of the other teams in the conference. This season will be year one of Kittley, hopefully, establishing some roots at Florida Atlantic, and he seems to have the long-term outlook in mind. Even still, the Owls have five matchups against opponents that are projected 112th or worse in the SP+, so there are some opportunities for wins. The win total feels right on track for what expectations should be, but with the long-term outlook in mind, I am keeping my expectations tempered.
Best Bet: Under 4.5 Wins (-135)
Charlotte (+15000 to win AAC)
The 49ers went a unique direction with their previous head coaching hire, giving former hedge fund millionaire Biff Poggi a chance at the gig. A former assistant of Jim Harbaugh at Michigan, Poggi went just 6-16 across two seasons before getting the ax last year. Charlotte will now go a more traditional route with Tim Albin taking over the program. He has served as Ohio’s head coach since 2021 and won 10 games each of the past three seasons. Albin’s teams have a physical identity, and he will look to carry this over to his new program.
Charlotte will return center Jonny King, linebacker Reid Williford, and safety Treyveon McGee, but this is where the list stops for returning starters. Three transfer quarterbacks- Grayson Loftis (Duke), Conner Harrell (North Carolina), and Zach Wilcke (JUCO)- are still battling it out for the starting job. Five offensive line transfers were brought in, seven members of the defensive line, six linebackers, and five defensive backs will all be new to the program. On paper, the team makes some sense, but there are plenty of questions about how this will play out in reality. It is worth noting that even while being successful at Ohio, the team went 3-9 during Albin’s first season. This is another situation where it is worth buying long-term stock but keeping expectations limited in the short term. It is difficult to find many wins on their schedule, and expect next season to be when the full Charlotte turnaround starts to occur.
Best Bet: Under 2.5 Wins (+125)
Temple (+20000 to win AAC)
It was not too long ago that Temple was a respected football program trending in the right direction. They won at least seven games in every season from 2015 to 2019 and went a combined 43-24 across this time. The Owls have been in free fall since this point, going 13-42 and failing to win more than three games in a season. K.C. Keeler will step in and attempt to right the ship with national titles at Delaware and Sam Houston on his resume.
Keeler brought in Oregon State transfer Gevani McCory and Robert Morris transfer Anthony Chiccitt to compete with Evan Simon for the starting quarterback role. The 65-year-old has also teased the potential for a two-quarterback system, which is something to keep an eye on. He brought in several small-school standouts, and the defense has a better outlook than it has the past few seasons. The offensive line is a concern, but the bar of expectations is low. Progress does not occur overnight, and it will take the defense taking a massive leap for it to make a significant difference. There is hope surrounding Temple for the first time in a while, but Keeler went 3-9 in his first season at Sam Houston before leaping to 9-3 his second year. Expect similar results for the Owls and for them to remain an AAC bottom feeder for the time being.
Best Bet: Under 3.5 Wins (-135)