Recent data released by U.S. Bank showed that despite trade- and economic-related uncertainty, the national truck freight market grew in the second quarter of 2025. Both shipment and spend volumes increased, the first time since Q2 2022, according to the latest U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index.

The U.S. Bank National Shipments Index rose 2.4% from the first quarter, while the National Spend Index increased 1.2%. Regarding a potential turning point for a freight industry still dealing with the lingering effects of the Great Freight Recession, the report remains cautious about declaring a definitive recovery.

“While it is too early to say the freight market has definitively turned the corner, the second quarter of 2025 was a very good step in the right direction,” the report noted.

Despite the quarterly improvements, year-over-year comparisons still show contraction, with shipments down 9.8% and spending down 4.9% compared to Q2 2024. However, these represent the smallest year-over-year declines since Q1 2023, suggesting some signs of early market stabilization.

Economic factors influencing freight movement remained mixed throughout the quarter. Manufacturing activity varied by region and showed only slight improvement nationally. Consumer spending increased marginally from Q1, while housing metrics were generally down despite some erratic patterns. Port volumes at both U.S. land ports of entry and seaports showed uneven performance.

Less capacity was cited as a factor behind some of the improvements, as quarterly gains in shipments and spending appear to be from less truckload capacity rather than truckload demand.

Freight rates data from DAT showed that spending was softer than shipments on a sequential basis primarily due to lower fuel surcharges, with fuel spend down $0.02 per mile (4.5%) from Q1. Contract rates remained flat quarter-over-quarter, while spot market rates decreased 1.4% ($0.03 per mile).

Year-over-year, all three rate metrics declined, with spot rates falling 0.5%, contract rates dropping 1.6%, and fuel outlays decreasing 10.6% as diesel prices fell compared to 2024.

Regional trends were another positive. For the first time since Q2 2021, all five regions tracked by the index posted sequential shipment gains. The Southwest led with a 6.7% increase, while the Southeast showed the smallest improvement at just 0.1%. Spend results were more mixed, with three regions posting gains and two witnessing declines.

The Northeast emerged as the standout performer, showing the best results both sequentially and year-over-year. The U.S. Bank Northeast Regional Shipments Index rose 3.3% over Q1 and increased 2.7% from a year earlier—the largest year-over-year increase among all regions. Northeast spending was up 1.3% sequentially and 3.7% year-over-year, aided significantly by housing starts that averaged 11% higher than Q1 and 39.3% above the previous year.

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The West region posted modest gains despite large fluctuations in port volumes, with shipments up 1.3% both sequentially and year-over-year. The region’s spending decreased slightly by 0.7% despite the volume increase, partly explained by lower diesel prices.

In the Midwest, both shipments and spending increased for the first time in years—up 2.6% and 2.2% respectively from Q1. These represented the region’s first gains since Q3 2024 for shipments and Q4 2023 for spending.

“Despite plenty of regional positivity, it may be too soon to say if the market has turned a corner or if the increases are the result of tariff volatility and uncertainty,” the report cautioned. The report adds that while the Q2 data is encouraging, a sustained recovery will depend on greater market clarity, particularly regarding international trade policies.

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