KALAMAZOO, Mich. — Prices on fresh tomatoes are expected to rise nationwide after the U.S. pulled out of a nearly 30-year trade agreement with Mexico, opening the door for new tariffs that may squeeze both consumers and small businesses.

The Trump administration officially withdrew from a 1996 trade deal that set minimum pricing standards on imported Mexican tomatoes. As of this week, fresh tomatoes from Mexico are now subject to a 20.9% tariff.

Brad Hershbein, senior economist and deputy director of research at the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, said the move is already creating economic ripples —especially for industries that rely heavily on imported produce.

“For all the fresh tomatoes that we’re importing, somewhere around 80% to 90% come from Mexico,” Hershbein said. “We’re the fourth-largest tomato producer in the world, bigger than Mexico but we still rely on Mexican imports, especially during off-seasons.”

He noted that while canned tomatoes and sauces are not currently affected, the tariff on fresh tomatoes could cause prices at grocery stores to climb by 10 to 15 cents per pound.

Local restaurant owners like Adrianna Hernandez are already bracing for the impact. Hernandez, co-owner of Los Brothers Mexican Food in Kalamazoo, said tomatoes are a key ingredient in many of their dishes from salsa to burrito fillings. She says the price hikes could force them to rethink their recipes.

“It’s a very high price,” Hernandez said. “So what we have to do is use other products like canned tomato, which is cheaper.”

She added that produce prices rise almost every year, but the tariffs bring added pressure. Rather than immediately raising prices on customers, Hernandez said her team is exploring substitutions.

Hershbein explained that the U.S.-Mexico tomato agreement was originally designed to protect American growers by ensuring a minimum import price. Yet with market conditions shifting over time, that price hasn’t always kept pace with inflation or global trade patterns.

“There’s a willingness to revisit that agreement,” Hershbein said. “But pulling out now and imposing tariffs creates uncertainty, and uncertainty is one of the biggest risks to the economy.”

He also pointed out that although the U.S. is a major tomato producer, Mexico benefits from cheaper labor and a more favorable year-round climate, allowing for more consistent production and export.

“There are growers in places like Florida and California who support the tariffs,” Hershbein said. “But on the flip side, restaurants, grocers, and consumers are likely to see higher prices.”

As businesses scramble to adapt, Hershbein warned that broader economic consequences could follow if trade instability continues.

“When businesses don’t know what to expect, they hold off on hiring or investing,” he said. “We’ve already seen job growth slow, and with more tariffs potentially coming later this summer, it’s hard to say where things will go.”

For now, restaurants like Los Brothers are trying to make the best of the uncertain landscape.

“We’ll keep serving our customers the best we can,” Hernandez said. “But we’re watching the prices every day.”