SMU’s shocking 2025 run to the College Football Playoff redefined expectations around its program.
Just one year into its time in the ACC, SMU has emerged as a contender to win the conference and a top-25 team in the nation entering this season.
But with some turnover at key positions and a tougher schedule, SMU could face a more challenging road ahead in 2025 than it did last fall.
Here are the best- and worst-case scenarios for the Mustangs this year:
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Worst case
After back-to-back 11-win seasons, SMU’s worst-case scenario is losing some significant steam in 2025.
That would start with the Mustangs underperforming in a more challenging non-conference slate.
It took SMU a few games last year to ramp up to full speed by ACC play. With Baylor on the schedule in Week 2 and the conclusion of the Iron Skillet Rivalry against TCU in Week 4, SMU doesn’t have the same luxury this year and could find itself with two losses before ACC play even begins if it’s not careful.
Related:SMU game-by-game predictions: Can Mustangs handle far tougher schedule in 2025?
From there, the Mustangs face a much larger challenge, taking on both Clemson and Miami in ACC play — the teams picked to finish first and second in the conference this year. They also take on Louisville, a team just outside the AP Top 25 preseason poll.
A 7-5 season certainly is possible, and if the Mustangs deal with injuries or falter against a few other less-skilled ACC opponents, their bowl eligibility could even be in question.
Best case
The best case for SMU is to ride the momentum from last season and return to the College Football Playoff.
If fellow ACC counterparts Clemson and Miami can maintain national buzz throughout the season, SMU has a chance to earn resume-building wins in head-to-head matchups with both. A win over either (as well as a perfect record outside of those matchups) should be enough to get the Mustangs back to Charlotte for the ACC title game and possibly back in the CFP for the second straight year.
A tougher schedule can be a positive or a negative. If SMU is able to earn wins against Baylor, TCU, Louisville and one of either Clemson or Miami, it will have a far stronger resume entering the postseason than it did last year.
Plus, starting ranked No. 16 in the nation, SMU doesn’t have as far to climb.
If the Mustangs can return to the CFP, showing they are competitive or even winning a game would be the ultimate achievement.
Prediction
Given the turnover on the Mustang defense and the more challenging schedule ahead, it wouldn’t be surprising if SMU took a slight step back and didn’t match its 11-win total this season.
SMU should have a good shot to survive the early part of its schedule undefeated, but deep in ACC play, it may run into problems against Clemson, Miami and Louisville.
If that’s the case, a return to the College Football Playoff wouldn’t be in the cards, but a quality bowl game like the Pop-Tarts Bowl could be.
On X/Twitter: @Lassimak
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