In July, both demand and supply expanded hand in hand, and in turn, the unemployment rate remained stable despite the rise in participation and employment rates. In recent months, these rates have remained essentially unchanged; it seems that this pattern is now also shifting.
Based on three-month averages, both the participation rate and the employment rate have peaked. The former is at its highest level since summer 2024, and the latter is at an all-time high. Of course, seasonal effects continue to significantly impact these indicators.
In any case, after a long time, we can finally report some meaningful, positive developments. The labour market therefore remains tight, which puts companies in an extremely difficult position as they try to manage increasing wage costs in an economy that has been stagnating for three years. Strong wage growth is expected to stay with us into next year as well.