Super Bowl odds don’t generally shift after NFL teams establish 53-man rosters and begin final preparations for the regular season. “Generally,” being the keyword here. Leave it to Jerry Jones to shake things up on the eve of the 2025 campaign. The Dallas Cowboys trading star edge rusher Micah Parsons to the Green Bay Packers for defensive tackle Kenny Clark and two first-round picks alters the course for both legacy NFC franchises.

The top of the crowded Super Bowl odds board still features multiple juggernauts returning from last season — headlined by the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles. That said, acquiring Parsons gives the Packers a sizable leap among middle-tier teams, with Green Bay becoming a major Super Bowl factor after the move.

Approaching the regular season, here’s a look at the latest Super Bowl odds from BetMGM. While the top of the board remained the same, the Parsons trade delivered some notable movement after the top-tier teams.

Packers make Lambeau Leap in odds with move for Parsons

Jumping from 10th (+2200) to sixth (+1300) on the BetMGM odds board after landing Parsons, Green Bay’s aggressive, win-now trade triggered a sizable boost. Adding a game-changing superstar like Parsons bolsters a strong Packers defense that was already top 10 last season in points allowed (sixth), yards allowed (sixth) and sack rate (10th).

Green Bay potentially turning a good defense into an elite unit helps them navigate a crowded division that has all four teams among the top 17 in odds to win the Super Bowl, with three being potentially elite.

A year ago, the Detroit Lions (+1000) and Minnesota Vikings (+2500) both swept the Packers, showing a glaring Green Bay inability to win tight games against playoff-caliber opponents. Green Bay hopes Parsons is a missing link after a promising 11-win season with one of the NFL’s youngest rosters.

Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys are heading in a different direction. After refusing to re-sign Parsons and trading him, the Cowboys dipped from +5000 to +6000 in Super Bowl odds. Now 19th on the odds board, and a very clear third in the NFC East behind the Eagles and Washington Commanders (+1800), Dallas faces glaring questions on defense.

Near the bottom in major defensive categories like total yards (28th), rushing yards allowed (29th) and points allowed (31st) last season, the Cowboys must play a new-look defense without its assumed centerpiece. It could be a year full of shootouts for Dallas if new head coach Brian Scottenheimer wants to keep pace in a crowded NFC playoff picture.

Top tier stays the same

Despite the major shakeup in the NFC, the top of the odds board remains the same among the top five teams.

The defending champion Philadelphia Eagles (+700) remain tied atop the odds after starting the offseason solo at +650. Philadelphia returns much of its core from a dominant playoff run and maintains perhaps the deepest roster in the league despite some departures in free agency.

The Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens (+700 each) both maintain pace with the Eagles. So long as the Bills and Ravens receive MVP-caliber QB play from reigning winner Josh Allen and former winner Lamar Jackson, both teams remain tough outs in the AFC. The Bills began the offseason at +750 and crept up, while the Ravens have stayed steady.

Behind the trio of top teams are the defending AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs (+800). Attempting to re-ignite their dynasty after falling to the Eagles to end last season, Kansas City started the offseason at +750. Battling significant offensive injuries in 2024, a healthy Chiefs offense could look more like its former glory days with more help for Patrick Mahomes.

The NFC North champion Lions (+1000) round out the top five of preseason Super Bowl contenders. Losing both coordinators to head coaching roles during the offseason tweaks how Detroit plays (Ben Johnson to the Chicago Bears and Aaron Glenn to the New York Jets). The Lions dropped from an opening number of +850. The Pack also leaped Detroit as the new favorites to win the NFC North, moving from +260 to +170.
Recent Super Bowl winners have generally come from the top pack of preseason favorites. Only the 2017 Philadelphia Eagles (+4000) started the season longer than +1200 odds over the last decade.

Second tier sees Green Bay, Washington as headliners

The Parsons trade saw Green Bay elevate to the top of the second tier of Super Bowl contenders. A young playoff team adding a superstar like Parsons this late in the preseason casts a unique spotlight on Green Bay.

Second-year quarterback Jayden Daniels delivers optimism to the Commanders (+1800) following last season’s surprising playoff appearance. Splashy veteran offseason acquisitions for wide receiver Deebo Samuel, left tackle Laremy Tunsil and pass rusher Von Miller showed Washington’s desire to win while Daniels remains under his rookie contract.

The Cincinnati Bengals, Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers (+2000 each) formulate the next group. The Bengals and Niners completely missed the 2024 postseason and hope for much better luck this season. Consistency is critical for Los Angeles in 2025 after a sluggish start almost kept them out of the playoffs.

Hit hard by offseason departures, San Francisco dropped from +1300 at the start of the offseason. Christian McCaffery needs to return to form after a nightmarish injury situation in 2024 for the Niners to be a contender.

Consistent numbers maintain for Cincinnati despite the tumultuous contract extension talks for star pass rusher Trey Hendrickson. Now with Hendrickson signed, the Bengals can focus on protecting Joe Burrow and limiting timely mistakes that plagued last season.

Both the Denver Broncos and Minnesota Vikings began the offseason at +3000 before drifting to +2500. Denver’s top-five defense from a year ago anchors a growing offense behind second-year signal caller Bo Nix. Expectations remain high in the Twin Cities despite a change at quarterback from Sam Darnold to J.J. McCarthy. By letting Darnold leave for Seattle as a free agent, the Vikings freed up money to bolster both sides of their line coming off a 14-win season.

The Green Bay Packers are a legit Super Bowl threat after trading for Micah Parsons, writes @mattschneidman.

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— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) August 29, 2025

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