The forex market is gearing up for an eventful September, with markets showing breakout potential at any time.
Watch today’s video to see how I’m trading the DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, and XAUUSD as we roll into September.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Forecast
The DXY made a round trip last week, targeting the 98.60 resistance level, followed by the 97.70 support level.
On Friday, the USD index is trading below its August trend line on a 4-hour closing basis for the first time. That could be a clue for what’s to come next week, potentially opening up levels like 97.40 and 96.70.
As discussed in recent videos, 96.70 is the bottom of a 2011 channel. There are also two poor lows in the area at 96.62 and 96.69. Both could become targets for the DXY in September.
However, the index first needs to break the 97.70 support level on the high time frames. If that happens, we likely see the US dollar trend lower in the first half of September.
Although a break below 97.70 would be bearish toward 96.70, staying bearish if we see the latter is ill-advised.
Weekly Forex Forecast For DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF and XAUUSD (September 1-5, 2025) 6 EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD is pushing toward the 1.1720 resistance area after testing key support on Wednesday. The 1.1580 region is a confluence of support, marked by a key horizontal from June and the March ascending trend line.
For now, the euro remains range-bound as we head into September. However, my base case is for the EURUSD to extend toward 1.1800 next month. There is a poor high from July at 1.1810 that bulls may target, which aligns with the DXY unfinished auctions discussed above.
But just like the DXY, the EURUSD has work to do. 1.1720 won’t go down without a fight. Bulls need to secure a sustained break above that on the high time frames to open the door to 1.1790 resistance and potentially the 1.1810 poor high in September.
Alternatively, a sustained break below 1.1600 would be bearish for the EURUSD.
Weekly Forex Forecast For DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF and XAUUSD (September 1-5, 2025) 7 GBPUSD Forecast
GBPUSD is coiling tighter as we head toward September. The pair has ping-ponged between its August trend line support and July trend line resistance for weeks.
On Friday, buyers stepped in at the 1.3450 support I pointed out in Thursday’s video. GBPUSD subsequently tested the July trend line resistance hours later at 1.3516.
The pair is nearing breakout territory, but it’s not there yet. A sustained break above 1.3530 will open the door to 1.3580 and potentially the 1.3700 imbalances from July.
On the flip side, a sustained break below 1.3450 would be bearish. I remain long on GBPUSD from 1.3455, an entry I shared with VIP members in real time last week.
Weekly Forex Forecast For DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF and XAUUSD (September 1-5, 2025) 8 USDCHF Forecast
Like many other currency pairs, USDCHF has been choppy and difficult to trade. However, despite last week’s indecision, the pair remains below the 0.8030 key level on a weekly closing basis.
That leaves the door open to the poor lows, or unfinished auctions from July. Those levels span between 0.7944 to 0.7900.
If the DXY breaks below 97.70 next week, we will most likely see USDCHF trend lower to target those poor lows just above 0.7900. As long as the pair remains below 0.8030 on a weekly closing basis, that’s my base case for USDCHF.
Alternatively, a sustained break above 0.8030 on the weekly time frame would be bullish.
Weekly Forex Forecast For DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF and XAUUSD (September 1-5, 2025) 9 XAUUSD (Gold) Forecast
Gold is breaking out above $3,430, something I alluded to in Wednesday’s outlook. The higher lows since May had me leaning toward a bullish breakout, not to mention the uptrend in 2025 and before that.
If XAUUSD can hold above $3,430 next week, we could see the $3,500 all-time high targeted in September. Although $3,500 will attract sellers, I’d be willing to bet we see gold extend well beyond that later this year.
Alternatively, a break above $3,430, followed by a break below on the high time frames, would signal a fakeout. That would keep gold range-bound into September.
Lastly, if the DXY breaks below 97.70, that could fuel gold bulls next month. So keep a close eye on the US dollar index, along with the $3,430 level for XAUUSD.
Weekly Forex Forecast For DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF and XAUUSD (September 1-5, 2025) 10