It’s time for one of our favorite annual traditions at The Athletic: a doomed attempt at predicting the future.

Each year, we look at what the Detroit Red Wings have in their farm system, and try to project what the team will look like a few years down the road, when the team’s top prospects have (mostly) arrived.

Of course, there are infinite possibilities for what changes a lineup could undergo in three years — just look back at how different the Red Wings looked in 2022 — and the goal of this exercise is not to hit a bullseye. Rather, it’s a way to take stock of what kind of talent Detroit has in place, as well as who’s on the way, and identify the areas where the team still has question marks moving forward.

So, how are the Red Wings shaping up three years out? Let’s take a look.

Note: Listed ages reflect age on Oct. 10, 2028. Blank spaces shaded in red indicate a remaining need. Blue shading indicates a projected contract extension.

Forwards

LWCRW

Carter Bear (21)

Dylan Larkin (32)

Lucas Raymond (26)

Alex DeBrincat (30)

Marco Kasper (24)

Michael Brandsegg-Nygård (23)

Max Plante (22)

Nate Danielson (24)

Carter Mazur (26)

Elmer Söderblom (27)

Emmitt Finnie (23)

Jesse Kiiskinen (23)

When we did a similar projection one year ago, there was a glaring need at the top of the Red Wings’ future forward corps. That gap has been filled with Detroit drafting Carter Bear in the first round of this summer’s NHL Draft.

Bear projects as a top-six winger who brings significant offensive ability as well as sandpaper to complement the skilled players already playing at the top of Detroit’s lineup. And even though he’ll be just 21 on opening night in 2028, he should be in the NHL by this time, and Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond would be a great pair of linemates for him to break in with.

Larkin is one of the most interesting pieces of this projection. The Red Wings’ captain will be 32 in 2028, likely at the tail end of (or perhaps even beyond) his prime. Could that mean one of Marco Kasper or Nate Danielson is manning the 1C slot by then? Possibly. And one of those two young centers ascending to that level is arguably Detroit’s best path to true contention. But for now, we’re going to stick with Larkin until we see one of the younger pivots show they can produce true top-line offense. The good news is, Kasper and Danielson certainly look capable of being strong centers at the levels they’re slotted here.

Kasper’s production and underlying numbers from Jan. 10 (when he entered the top six full-time) through the end of the season were strikingly similar to those of Sam Bennett, the No. 2 center on the Stanley Cup-winning Florida Panthers, in the same span — and not far off some of the other second-line centers on some of the league’s elite teams.

Second-line centers after Jan. 10

PlayerTeamAgePts / gamexGF%

Lightning

27

0.6

59.1

Panthers

28

0.66

54.4

Stars

21

0.98

49.9

Golden Knights

31

1.09

63.2

Red Wings

20

0.71

54.5

Data via Evolving Hockey and Hockey-Reference

Of course, we’ll have to see if Kasper can keep that up over a full season — his 18 percent shooting over the above stretch does indicate some goal-scoring regression could be coming — but he’s also only 21 and has plenty of room to keep growing. It was a very encouraging season for him and if he can keep it up, he has the look of a shutdown second-line center who can also produce real offense.

Time will tell what Danielson’s future holds — The Athletic’s Corey Pronman recently ranked him as the team’s top under-23 player — but this 3C projection represents his floor, and if it is his role, he could be among the league’s best at it. He’s highly responsible, skates very well at 6-foot-2 and brings skill and creativity to a line. So while Detroit may not have top-end star power down the middle on the level of a Connor McDavid or Nathan MacKinnon, they do have enviable depth.

Still, the offensive star power will have to come from somewhere and Raymond will shoulder a significant amount of that responsibility, especially as Larkin ages. He hit 80 points last season for the first time in his young career and could very well hit 90 in the years to come. He’s a star already, with a chance to become something more.

The big question, though, is how much more dynamic offense Detroit can find to surround and supplement him. In this projection, I have the Red Wings re-signing Alex DeBrincat when his contract expires in 2027, which they should have plenty of cap space to do as the NHL’s upper limit rises. Even at 30, DeBrincat’s release should be a major weapon both at even strength and on the power play.

Bear, too, can be a significant contributor, able to use his creativity or grit to generate offense. And while 2024 first-round pick Michael Brandsegg-Nygård may not be on that level in terms of pure skill, his shot is a major asset and he has real potential to be a consistent 20-30 goal scorer while bringing many of the harder elements Detroit’s current top six lacks.

Down the lineup, there’s less certainty. I have Max Plante projected on the third line because I’m a big believer in his blend of skill, sense and competitiveness, but I also considered Dmitri Buchelnikov in that spot. Buchelnikov is closer to the NHL than Plante is, and is expected to come over from Russia as soon as next season as a highly skilled offensive creator. I can certainly see the case to have him here instead, but I slightly preferred Plante for his frame and compete level for a third-line role.

Meanwhile, Carter Mazur and Jesse Kiiskinen are both high-motor righties who can also really shoot, and Söderblom is a towering 6-8 winger who brings a level of skill seldom seen from a player his size. He’ll need to be consistently physical to stick there, but the trend last season was encouraging.

A more veteran 4C would be well-suited for this group, but I’m only using internal options and have been impressed by Finnie virtually every time I’ve seen him. He’s smart, competitive and has the size to play in a checking role, but also can chip in some offense too. Amadeus Lombardi could be another option for that spot, but I felt Finnie’s size and defense fit the role better. (Lombardi, however, could certainly challenge for the same type of role as Plante and Buchelnikov.)

All told, this group has a lot going for it, with potentially three strong two-way centers, legit goal-scoring of multiple varieties in the top six and some secondary offense down the lineup too.

Not every prospect will hit their projection, of course, but if the top names here do, this looks like a playoff-caliber forward corps — albeit not an elite one — with the potential to elevate if Detroit can get a bit more offense than expected out of its young centers.

Defense

LDRD

Simon Edvinsson (25)

Moritz Seider (27)

Axel Sandin-Pellikka (23)

Albert Johansson (27)

Anton Johansson (24)

Whether you envision Simon Edvinsson and Moritz Seider playing together or split up on separate pairs in the top four, both look like big-minute horses for the foreseeable future. Seider is of course more proven, but Edvinsson showed very well in his first full NHL season and has all the tools to take on tough minutes, deliver offense and do just about anything else you’d want from a top-pairing defenseman.

Top prospect Axel Sandin-Pellikka, meanwhile, projects to be Detroit’s power-play quarterback of the future. The 2023 first-round pick should bring a much-needed puck-moving element to the back end whenever he arrives (possibly later this season), though he doesn’t have the same upside defensively. The hope is he can handle second-pair minutes in spite of that, and with his hockey sense and competitiveness, I’m inclined to think he can.

But there is nonetheless one big hole on this blue line long-term: one more top-four LHD who can either complement Sandin-Pellikka on the second pair or join Seider on the top pair, freeing up Edvinsson to stabilize the second.

Perhaps the Red Wings can find that player in the 2026 draft, but more likely, they will need to acquire a proven defender elsewhere to maximize this collection of young talent. That’s because their current LHD prospects project toward third-pairing or depth roles more than true top-four minute-eaters.

William Wallinder and Shai Buium could both plausibly be on the third pair of this projection, but Albert Johansson earned a lot of trust down the stretch and got the nod here for that reason. Meanwhile, righty Anton Johansson looked very good in his late-season stint in Grand Rapids and brings the exact kind of physicality you would want on a third pair. The all-Johansson defense pairing is just a fun coincidence.

Finding a legit top-four defenseman in free agency or via trade is no small feat, as the Red Wings have experienced firsthand over the last decade. Typically, teams don’t let those players go unless they have to.

But if the Red Wings can find one more top-four defender to fit this timeline, their young talent on the blue line has the potential to be this team’s strength in the near future.

Goaltenders

G

Sebastian Cossa (25)

Trey Augustine (23)

In some ways, this was the easiest section: Detroit has two of the top goalie prospects in the sport, and in three years’ time, it feels likely both will be in the NHL (though Augustine may only be a rookie).

However, given the nature of goaltending timelines and development, it’s also the hardest to project. Cossa, at a minimum, should be an established NHL goaltender by this time. But will he be a slam-dunk starter? Or will Detroit decide he’s more of a true tandem goalie? And if it’s the latter, will they be willing to let the other half of that tandem be a 23-year-old?

There are a lot of questions at the sport’s most pivotal position, and we’ve seen time and again how hard they are to answer. We should learn more about Cossa this year as he looks to respond from a rocky finish in 2025. Augustine, meanwhile, is expected to dominate as an NCAA junior and should turn pro by season’s end.

If all goes well, this could be an exciting young tandem three years from now. But you can never be sure in the crease, and there’s still plenty of potential for things to change.

(Photo of Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider: Maddie Meyer / Getty Images)