Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Wednesday

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day’s slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today’s MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

Jump to: Pitching notes | Hitting notes | Betting tips
Reliever depth chart

Pitchers to stream on Wednesday

Cade Horton is 6-1 with a 0.86 ERA and 0.88 WHIP since the break. The key is allowing just two homers over those 42 innings, but he’s also sporting a 23.8% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate in that span, both better than league average. The Chicago Cubs host the Atlanta Braves and an offense faring much better at home.

Ryan Bergert‘s record is only 1-1 since joining the Kansas City Royals at the trade deadline, but he’s done his part with a 2.54 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over five August starts spanning 28 1/3 innings. The righty has a solid chance to collect his second win with the Royals with a home date against the Los Angeles Angels. Bergert also is in a favorable spot to rack up punchouts against the lineup with the highest strikeout rate in the league facing right-handers.

Even though he’s coming off a subpar effort, Nestor Cortes is the top ranked pitcher on Wednesday’s slate. Part of it is Cortes’ track record, but he also catches a vulnerable Baltimore Orioles lineup in Petco Park. Especially lately, the Orioles have struggled on the road against southpaw pitching, mostly due to an above average strikeout rate.

Pitchers to avoid on Wednesday

Clay Holmes may be showing signs he’s hitting the wall in his first season as a full-time starter. Over the past three seasons, he averaged 63 innings as a reliever for the New York Yankees. This year, he hasn’t missed a start for the New York Mets, compiling a career-high 142 1/3 innings. Over his past four outings, Holmes posted a 4.50 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, but more worrisome is only 14 strikeouts with nine walks. Holmes draws a road start against a dangerous Detroit Tigers lineup, so it’s best to avoid him.

Today’s best matchups for pitchers

Today’s worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream on Wednesday

The Angels have a road date against a pesky Royals lineup, scrapping to stay in the wild card hunt despite a disappearing rotation. The Royals aren’t powerful, but are patient and put the ball in play, which is a recipe for success against Caden Dana, who is being called up from Triple-A to make a spot start. Jac Caglianone and Mike Yastrzemski benefit the most as they wield two of the more potent bats in the lineup.

Today’s best matchups for hitters

Today’s worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today’s top HR prop bets

Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+375)
Projection: 26% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.22 EV
One reason to bet this: The seventh-shallowest left field fences in MLB are found in Great American Ball Park.

Cedric Mullins | OVER 0.5 HR (+700)
Projection: 15% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.36 EV
One reason to bet this: In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast expects the fifth-most suitable hitting conditions on the slate today.

Today’s top pitcher prop bets

Jack Leiter | UNDER 4.5 K (+115)
Projection: 49% chance of this bet hitting, with a $4.75 EV
One reason to bet this: My projection system ranks Chase Field as the eighth-worst field in baseball for strikeouts.

Mitchell Parker | UNDER 4.5 K (-160)
Projection: 62% chance of this bet hitting, with a $1.38 EV
One reason to bet this: Parker’s 2,170-rpm spin rate this year on his fastball ranks in only the eighth percentile out of all SPs.

Today’s top YRFI/NRFI bets

Giants @ Rockies | YRFI (-140)
Projection: 61% chance of RUN with a $7.36 EV

Yankees @ Astros | YRFI (-115)
Projection: 55% chance of RUN with a $2.69 EV

Mets @ Tigers | YRFI (-110)
Projection: 53% chance of RUN with a $0.94 EV

Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Wednesday

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