You’ve had this happen. We have all had this happen. You go to grocery store and you pick out a cart. It pulls to the right no matter which way it is facing. I am sure for many, my writing must sound like that after awhile. Some of this is subconscious I’m sure. Some of it is very intentional. I simply believe teams undervalue offense. I think this is true of the Astros in particular. I could do a deep dive into franchise history, but with numerous owners, general managers, and scouting departments it wouldn’t be that relevant.
In short, the Astros have been that bad shopping cart. No matter what numbers are produced on the mound or at the plate, they act like that shopping cart. They always talk about a need to add more pitching. No set of numbers prove anything 100 percent of the time and the breakdown of our hitting and pitching won’t either. There have been isolated seasons where our hitters have been better than our pitchers, but if you go back to 1962 you would find the preponderance of the evidence lies with the pitchers being better in most seasons.
Runs Rank
Runs Allowed Rank
2015
6
6
2016
15
10
2017
1
9
21018
6
1
2019
3
2
2020
14
14
2021
1
7
2022
8
2
2023
5
10
2024
11
7
2025
23
6
AVG
8.45
6.72
The averages tell us something, but the distribution of scores also tells something. With the exception of 2020, the Astros have always been in the top third in runs allowed. So, while they only led the league once (setting a modern AL record) in runs allowed, they have been consistently good. The offensive numbers have been all over the place. They did lead the league twice and both of those seasons resulted in pennants. Funny how that works.
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Like I said in the opening, I did not meticulously track the other 53 seasons of franchise history, but I have done a similar study before and the results are even more stark. This pitchers consistently outperform the hitters relative to the league and management consistently talks about getting more pitching. Don’t get me wrong, I wouldn’t turn down another high leverage bullpen arm or a steady starter, but anyone being honest with themselves knows what is holding this team back and it isn’t the pitchers.
Now, I am just an observer and not a professional scout, but as someone that has watched baseball for over four decades I think I’ve picked up a thing or two. However, beyond my own personal observations we can look at our ranks in the relevant numbers. Let’s see which of these numbers are the biggest drags on team performance right now.
Rank
Runs
23
AVG
6
OBP
13
SLG
16
OPS
13
ISO
21
Walks
25
SOs:
7
GIDP:
29
LOB
21
Looking at this puts things in perspective and often gives clarity to what we think we are seeing. We think we are seeing a team that strikeouts too often, but comparatively that’s not true. I’ve made these observations before, but they bare repeating. When you are looking at a team that is 23rd in runs scoring you want to see which numbers correlate most strongly with that result. It would appear that LOB, Walks, and ISO compare most closely with that result.
This is where we get into the harder question: why is this happening? I think the simple answer is that the Astros as a team are not selective enough. They are swinging at pitcher’s pitches and they are doing so early in counts. So, while those results mean more contact relative to the league, it also means it is the kind of contact that pitchers want. Pitchers generally want more groundballs. More groundballs might mean a higher batting average, but they are almost always singles and those ground balls result in more double plays.
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A double play by sheer definition erases a base runner and so does not count as a runner left on base, If we were to add those double plays with the runners left on base then we would see that the Astros move down to a tie for 26th in baseball with the Pittsburgh Pirates. It should be noted that the Pirates and Atlanta Braves are the only non-playoff teams on the list. So, perhaps those particular numbers are not all that relevant.
Still, a team that doesn’t draw enough walks and doesn’t hit for enough power is suffering from the same disease. This is the point where we leave the facts are start with the open conjecture. We have noted before that the makeup of the team will likely be fairly similar. We will have a healthy Jake Meyers and Isaac Paredes, but we will lose at least one of the regulars in all likelihood. So, will the results be remarkably different if the makeup of the lineup is similar?
This leaves with two choices if you want to dramatically change the results. Either you can drastically alter the composition of the lineup somehow or you can fire the hitting coaches and bring in a new team. Obviously, you can some combination of both as well. It seems pretty clear that what is currently happening is not good enough. I certainly have opinions on both options, but I am open to suggestions at this point. Do you make a change on the coaching staff or do you alter the makeup of the lineup to recreate what you are looking for?