Every NBA champion has
an X-factor that helps get them over the edge. We dive into who
could be those players for title contenders in the 2025-26
season.

Everyone always says that the NBA is a star-driven league.

And while that is true, basketball is still a team sport, and
even the mightiest of stars need great teammates to help reach the
finish line. 

Take, for instance, the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Of course, they wouldn’t even be close to contending for an NBA
title if not for the
contributions of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and
Jalen Williams. But even the reigning MVP and his
second-in-command would tell you that they couldn’t conquer the
final frontier if not for the efforts of Alex Caruso –
one of the best role players of his generation.  

Who might be those players in 2025-26? We’ve found six non-star
players whose performance could have a major impact on the story of
the season. 

We’re going to limit our X-factors to players who have not made
an All-Star team in the last three seasons. We also won’t be
including any members of the Thunder, since we already mentioned
Caruso and already know which dominoes need to fall in their favor
to repeat as champions (something
our model expects them to do).

Lastly, we will be focusing on teams with realistic odds of
making a deep playoff run, as those are the teams whose potential
x-factors mean the most. 

2025-26 NBA X-Factors
Jaden McDaniels, Minnesota
Timberwolves

McDaniels is the X-factor
of all X-factors. Ever since the Timberwolves made McDaniels a
full-time starter in 2022, he has always looked the part of a
3-and-D ace. However, his flashes as an off-the-dribble scorer
(78th percentile midrange efficiency in 2023-24) have led some to
suspect that there is more to McDaniels than just being this
generation’s version of Shane Battier. 

In today’s NBA, it isn’t enough to bank on continuity. And not
only did the Timberwolves not add any marquee names in free agency,

they lost one in Nickeil Alexander-Walker. So
to avoid underperforming, the Timberwolves will need that
addition to come in the form of a leap from their young core.

Terrence Shannon Jr., Rob Dillingham and Jaylen Clark are all
potential candidates, but McDaniels has the highest ceiling of all
of them, and if he does take his game from high-level starter to
All-Star, Minnesota may finally be able to advance past the
conference finals. 

Reed Sheppard, Houston
Rockets

The Rockets had a big offseason, but their offense still doesn’t
move me the way it should for a team that wants to compete for an
NBA title. 

Even with Kevin Durant, the Rockets don’t have enough on-ball
creation to survive in the half court in a playoff series. They
were 27th in the league last year in effective field-goal shooting
on pull-ups (per NBA.com). 

That brings us to Sheppard. The Kentucky product was taken third
overall in the 2024 NBA Draft in part because of his ability to
create for himself and others. In his single season at Kentucky,
Sheppard was in the 93rd percentile in off-the-dribble jumper
efficiency.

Last season, though, Sheppard’s ineffectiveness (28th percentile
DRIP)
made it hard for him to see the floor (654 total minutes) on a team
that was focused on winning as many games as possible. The Rockets
have to hope that Sheppard will be able to take a major leap in
Year 2 if they plan on fielding a more balanced offense. 

Cameron Johnson, Denver
Nuggets

The Nuggets gave the Thunder everything they could handle in the
playoffs. But in the end, it was their lack of depth (27th in
points per game off the bench in the regular season) that did them
in. Outside of Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon and
Christian Braun, Denver didn’t have anyone it could trust when it
really mattered.  

Michael Porter Jr. usually belongs in that group, but he
struggled with injuries and inconsistency in the playoffs. He
averaged 9.1 points in the postseason after putting up 18.2 per
game during the regular season.

In theory, Johnson is a very similar player. He’s tall, can
shoot, and leans more toward offense than defense.

He isn’t really bringing anything new to the table
(other than more financial flexibility), but the good news is the
Nuggets don’t need him to reinvent the wheel. They just need
Johnson to be the player Porter was for them before this
postseason. 

Mikal Bridges, New York
Knicks

It could’ve been either Bridges or Mitchell Robinson here, but
Bridges is the guy because of Robinson’s injury concerns and the
Knicks being far less committed to him financially (Bridges
inked a new
extension last month). 

Yes, Robinson was great last postseason, and New York trapped
lightning in a bottle when they played double-big lineups featuring
him and Karl-Anthony Towns. But he’s only appeared in 48
regular-season games over the last two years, and his free-throw
shooting woes (career 52.2% free-throw shooter) make him easy to
phase out of playoff games. Bridges, on the other hand, has
been an iron man.

Bridges games played

Besides, when this roster was constructed, it was always with
the thought that Bridges would be one of the best role players in
the sport. How do you build a championship-caliber team with your
two best players (Jalen Brunson and Towns) being questionable
defenders? You surround them with a trio of versatile
wings/forwards (Bridges, Josh Hart and OG Anunoby).

So far, Hart and Anunoby have lived up to expectations. Bridges,
however, hasn’t been the defender (outside the top 120 in defensive
DRIP) nor spacer (35.4% from 3 last season) we fell in love with
during his time with the Phoenix Suns. Can he return to the roots
that made him such a highly coveted player in the first place?

The Knicks are going to need him to do so if they plan on
hanging up a banner during the Brunson-Towns era. 

Lonzo Ball, Cleveland
Cavaliers

Ever since they traded for Donovan Mitchell and formed a Big 4
with him, Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, the
Cavaliers have had an
hourglass problem. Allen and Mobley have similar strengths and
weaknesses, and ditto with Mitchell and Garland. 

The Cavaliers have since remedied the fit issues that persisted
between these four stars, but that doesn’t change the fact that
they are lacking in wings/forwards who can adequately safeguard the
perimeter. 

For years, Isaac Okoro was their best and brightest in this
category, but his offense was always too detrimental (minus-0.7
offensive DRIP) for them to profit from his point-of-attack
excellence. Max Strus offers a lot more as a shooter/spacer, but
he’s overtaxed as a primary stopper (outside the top 180 in
D-DRIP). And last season’s midseason acquisition, De’Andre Hunter,
is better equipped to guard bigger forwards than speedy
guards. 

That makes Ball, the headliner of their incoming class, the
perfect addition. Ball is a great perimeter defender (93rd
percentile in D-DRIP), and between his pace-pushing, passing, and
improved jumper, he does enough on offense to warrant keeping him
on the floor (-0.1 O-DRIP). 

On paper, Ball is the perfect fit. There’s only one downside:
Ball has played in just 35 regular-season games over the last three
years. 

Will the former second-overall pick’s body hold up this year?
Cleveland doesn’t need him in the regular season, but can the team
manage his load enough to keep him healthy for an entire postseason
run? The fate of the season may very well rest on the answer to
that question. 

Brandin Podziemski, Golden
State Warriors

If the second round of the 2025 Western Conference semifinals
taught us anything, it’s that the Warriors are relying too much on
Stephen Curry.

Now, Curry is tied for second in O-DRIP in the entire NBA. There
are worse people to ask to shoulder an enormous burden. But Curry
is 37 years old now, and he can’t carry the Warriors the way he
used to during his glory days. 

O-DRIP Leaders

The future Hall of Famer needs some help, and as we also learned
in that aforementioned series, his aging co-stars (Jimmy Butler and
Draymond Green) can’t do it on their lonesome, either. 

The Warriors need someone who can flank their stars while also
leveling up their scoring when one or two of them need rest. With
the Jonathan Kuminga situation in dire straits, it appears that the
only person capable of such a feat on this roster is
Podziemski. 

The start of his sophomore campaign was a rocky one, but
Podziemski bounced back in a pretty meaningful way in January. In
his final 33 games of the regular season, Podziemski averaged 15.1
points, 5.6 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 1.2 steals on 46.6% shooting
from the floor and 41.0% shooting from downtown (on 6.1 attempts
per game). 

If Podziemski can build on this second-half success, it would
give the Warriors a viable third option behind Curry and Butler,
and an even greater chance of winning one more
title.  

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