Imagine this: The NBA decides to change the basketball used for a playoff Game 7 but does not test the new ball beforehand, giving teams just 25 minutes of practice before the competition begins.
That, in essence, is what is happening this weekend at Bristol Motor Speedway, where NASCAR tire supplier Goodyear is bringing a new tire intended to improve competition — but how it will actually perform in a Round 1 playoffs elimination race is anyone’s guess.
“You could coin-flip it, to be quite honest with you,” said Chris Gayle, crew chief for series wins leader Denny Hamlin.
NASCAR and Goodyear want to change the tire for the same reason the NBA would change a basketball: to provide more entertainment. Whereas in the NBA that would entail more scoring, NASCAR’s rubber change is all about more passing.
Drivers have complained they get stuck in position on Bristol’s half-mile concrete track and find it difficult to pass. That creates an uneventful race, like the one at Bristol earlier this spring, which had just four lead changes in 500 laps; afterward, fans pilloried the quality of the action on social media and satellite radio.
But just 18 months ago at the same racetrack, Goodyear accidentally struck black gold — just in the form of rubber instead of oil.
In the spring 2024 race, on a cooler-than-expected afternoon, the tires wore out shockingly fast and forced drivers into a compelling decision: race conservatively in an effort to make their rubber last longer, or mash the gas for more speed but risk having the tires go flat sooner.
The drivers’ dilemma created an astounding 54 lead changes (smashing Bristol’s 1991 record of 40) and a jaw-dropping 3,589 total passes under green flag conditions (the new NASCAR record for a non-superspeedway).
Naturally, many people wanted to see that sort of action again — except Goodyear has not been able to replicate it in the two Bristol races since. There was palpable disappointment this spring when everyone from NASCAR officials to Goodyear to the drivers and teams was nearly certain they’d experience a high-wear race again, only to discover it was the opposite once the green flag waved.
Goodyear tires sit trackside at the 2025 spring Bristol race. On Saturday, a new — and untested — tire will be used in NASCAR’s Round 1 elimination race. (Jared C. Tilton / Getty Images)
The theories as to the difference have ranged wildly: a mystery rubber compound (Goodyear denies this), the cold temperatures that day in 2024 (probably), or the chemical traction compound applied to the track (maybe).
“We know concrete, particularly Bristol, is very finicky when it comes to track temp on this Next Gen car,” said Mark Keto, Goodyear’s senior project manager for NASCAR. “As we saw in the spring of last year, we had significantly higher wear, probably a little too heavy. Then, in the fall, it kind of flipped the script because of the warmer track temp. So we wanted to make a change, (and) drivers have asked us to be aggressive.”
The change, he said, is not hugely significant: The right-side tires are slightly softer, and the left-side tires are the same as before.
But Goodyear was unable to test the new tires before this weekend; they have never been on the racetrack. That’s because of the setup for Bristol’s MLB Speedway Classic this summer, in which a baseball field was built inside the racetrack for a game between the Atlanta Braves and Cincinnati Reds; Goodyear needs enough lead time to test and build the tires, but that was not possible this time.
So, given all the X-factors as well as the new tire, what will drivers be facing Saturday night, when four drivers will see their championship hopes ended?
“Your guess is as good as mine on that,” defending Cup Series champion Joey Logano said. “We’re all like, ‘What is that going to look like?’ You just don’t know, and that’s a really tricky place for the teams to be.
“It’s part of racing, and I’m not complaining about it, but it is definitely a massive variable you would want to adjust (the car) to. But you won’t have that opportunity.”
The forecast this week has trended toward higher temperatures, with a green-flag temperature expected to be around 70 degrees. That should probably be enough to make for a more “normal” Bristol rather than the spring 2024 Bristol, and Hendrick Motorsports driver Chase Elliott said teams will have no choice but to set up their cars for the former.
“You would have to put your cards so far on the side of tire conservation that you would be giving up so much if the race went like it probably will go, which is what the majority of the events have been there,” he said. “If we fall into that situation we fell into in the spring race a couple years ago, then you’ll just have to adjust on the fly.”
Elliott means adjusting behind the wheel, not with the car itself. Because even if their 25-minute practice session revealed high tire wear Friday, it would be too late to change much for the race. That’s why Elliott said teams must err on the side of the expected rather than taking a gamble on the new tires performing drastically differently.
“We’re so limited to what we can change at the racetrack; you would be too stuck with the wrong things,” he said.
Whether they’re correct, though, is nothing but an educated guess.
(Top photo of Brad Keselowski’s crew working on tires during the spring 2024 Bristol race: Jeffrey Vest / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)