The early start of college football’s coaching carousel caught some industry insiders off-guard Sunday. Though there was no doubt about the need for change at UCLA and Virginia Tech following last-straw defeats in Week 3, the trend in recent years had been toward firings later in the schedule due primarily to the transfer portal.
Having played just three games, any player at UCLA or Virginia Tech could theoretically shut it down now, preserve their year of eligibility with a redshirt and hop into the portal. In effect, it’s already open season on both rosters.
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Though the overflow of fan anger around DeShaun Foster’s performance at UCLA and Brent Pry’s failures at Virginia Tech sparked firings that were quicker than expected, it’s not surprising in general that jobs are popping open. After a relatively muted coaching cycle last year, attributed largely to the financial uncertainties of the House v. NCAA settlement, 2025 always promised to be a more active year for changes.
The question now is which coaches will be next to collect their buyouts. We’re breaking down the possibilities by tiers of danger for each candidate to be fired this fall.
Coaching on borrowed timeMike Gundy, Oklahoma State
You would be hard-pressed to find a single person in college athletics right now who believes Gundy will be coaching the Cowboys in 2026. And that’s not just because of the 69-3 loss at Oregon. Gundy has had his ups and downs over 21 seasons, pulling himself back from the brink of trouble a couple times. But this feels different. It’s complicated because of Gundy’s longevity in Stillwater, but he needed to bounce back in a big way after last season’s collapse to 3-9. There’s no evidence that’s going to happen.
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Billy Napier, Florida
It would be a bit surprising if Florida pulls the plug before the Georgia game on Nov. 1, but there’s a chance that things go so poorly Saturday at No. 4 Miami that the school is pushed into making a move. Napier being the team’s offensive coordinator and play-caller also complicates things, as one could argue that dispatching him now might make things worse in the short-term for players who still have a chance to salvage something out of this season. At 1-2, though, with a brutal stretch of games coming up against Texas, Texas A&M and later Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Florida State, Napier probably can’t offset the Week 2 loss to South Florida that rekindled speculation about his job.
These college football coaches may be running out of time. (Bruno Rouby/Yahoo Sports)
Urgently needing winsTony Elliott, Virginia
The Cavaliers’ 35-31 loss to NC State in Week 2 did little to calm the waters, as it featured some of the same game-management concerns that have plagued Elliott from the beginning. Virginia has been patient with the former Clemson offensive coordinator as a first-time head coach, but with an infusion of money into this year’s roster after three straight losing seasons, it’s put-up-or-shut-up time. Given the ACC’s overall weakness, there’s a path to eight or even nine wins at Virginia — but Elliott better get there.
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Sam Pittman, Arkansas
It looks like the Razorbacks’ offense is legit, but Pittman’s 7-18 record in one-score games has become fodder for his naysayers after a 41-35 loss to Ole Miss last weekend. Pittman has done just enough to keep his job the past few years, but a 14-29 SEC record is weighing him down and there’s a very easy answer in offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino if the school decides to make a midseason change. Arkansas has a dangerous game at Memphis this weekend, followed by Notre Dame at home and a road trip to Tennessee. If the Hogs dig a hole in those games, it might be over quickly.
Joey McGuire, Texas Tech
With the amount of money being poured into the Red Raiders’ roster, notably by billionaire and political power player Cody Campbell, McGuire came into this season needing to show return on investment. Texas Tech has started 3-0, but wins over Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Kent State and Oregon State don’t move the needle. What would? Tech’s schedule over the next month includes road trips to Utah, Houston and Arizona State. Those games should help clarify whether McGuire has the potential to elevate the program toward Big 12 contention.
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Trent Dilfer, UAB
The Blazers are 2-1, but it hasn’t been a pretty 2-1 and the overall state of UAB’s program remains very much in question. In his first two years, Dilfer managed to pick off some American Conference wins over the league’s bottom-feeders and could do the same this time. But getting to 6-6 seems like an imperative for Dilfer to be brought back.
Teetering on the edgeLuke Fickell, Wisconsin
Firing him would cost in the neighborhood of $27 million, which may simply be a non-starter. But nobody could argue truthfully that this marriage has worked out. Wisconsin’s 14-14 record under Fickell is one of the biggest disappointments of the 2022 coaching cycle when he left Cincinnati to take what seemed like a good fit in the Big Ten. Last weekend’s 38-14 loss to Alabama was so uncompetitive that Wisconsin’s decision-makers have no choice but to be on alert. Another 5-7 type season might necessitate a buyout.
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Dave Doeren, NC State
It’s remarkable that Doeren has made it to Year 13 at NC State without ever reaching the ACC title game or finishing better than 20th in the Associated Press poll. Last year’s dip to 6-7 necessitated significant staff changes, and the jury’s still out on whether they’ve had the desired effect. The Wolfpack is 3-0 and could get to 6-0, but the back of the schedule is much tougher. NC State would prefer not to pay another large buyout after firing basketball coach Kevin Keatts last year if it can be avoided.
Brent Brennan, Arizona
It was well known around the industry that athletics director Desireé Reed-Francois, who didn’t hire Brennan, came into this season eyeing a possible change if Arizona had another disappointing year. The Wildcats’ 3-0 start, including a win over Kansas State last week, has complicated those plans. It’s hard to predict anything in the Big 12, but Brennan getting Arizona to seven wins after going 4-8 last year would probably show sufficient progress to get a third season.
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Dave Aranda, Baylor
We’re at the stage where every big win or loss will feel like a referendum on his future. Coming back in the fourth quarter on Sept. 6 to beat SMU was at least a temporary vibe-changer for the Bears, who are now 2-1 heading into a big home game this weekend against Arizona State. Anything can happen here as Baylor enters Big 12 play.
Mike Locksley, Maryland
Don’t be fooled by the Terps’ 3-0 record. Fast starts against nobodies have been typical of the Locksley era before reality sets in during Big Ten play. The big X-factor here is a new athletic director, Jim Smith, and what he envisions for Maryland football. A similar performance to last year, when Maryland went 1-8 in the Big Ten, would give him an easy excuse to wipe the slate clean.
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Getting off the hot seat — maybeBrent Venables, Oklahoma
It looks like importing the offensive coordinator/quarterback combo of Ben Arbuckle and John Mateer from Washington State will pay off in a big way for Venables after going 6-7 last season. The Sooners have looked much improved offensively in their 3-0 start, but that doesn’t mean Venables is out of the woods yet. SEC play will provide all the answers Oklahoma needs.
Hugh Freeze, Auburn
The mood around Auburn has improved significantly this month with a 3-0 start, including a very solid 38-24 win at Baylor. The Tigers are a talented team and look like they can compete at the level Auburn fans expect, but then again this is Auburn and the narrative could change entirely after its next two games at Oklahoma and Texas A&M. Stay tuned.