I almost combined the Khris Middleton and CJ McCollum statistical doppelgangers because…well…they’re pretty similar themselves. Not in terms of production, but rather in terms of career stage and status with the Wizards.

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Like McCollum, Middleton was a bit better than average last season…when he could stay on the floor. Like McCollum, odds are he’ll be around average again next season, though he’s at an age where a sudden and steep decline is normal. One difference: Middleton’s history of serious injuries increases his risk of a production drop-off.

Like McCollum, he’ll be gone when the season ends (or sooner), unless he’s willing to be a veteran mentor at around the league minimum. And, like McCollum, that wouldn’t be a bad thing — he’s well respected and probably has much to teach Washington’s youngsters.

So, where does that leave the Wizards? With an aging wing who used to be pretty good, but who’s now playing out the age/injury-related decline portion of his career. Which is perfectly normal for a rebuilding team.

And, the Wizards got paid a first round pick and wriggled out of multiple years of Kyle Kuzma to get him, which a) was a good bit of business by Will Dawkins, and b) is pretty normal for a rebuilding team.

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My version of the Statistical Doppelganger Machine uses 14 categories including box score stats and age. I don’t use height or position, though players tend to get comps from the same position group.

Middleton’s comps are interesting. They’re all good — or at least had a few good years — and they’re all 30+ years old. While they had their time as starters, at this stage of their careers, they were coming off the bench. Which is to say: Middleton probably has genuine value as a reserve on a good team. Here’s the group:

Terry Porter, 1997-98, Minnesota Timberwolves | Age 34 — Porter was a great point guard and instrumental in getting his first team — the Portland Trail Blazers — to the NBA Finals. His peak PPA was 211, and he had seasons of 180 and 160, as well. He defied the age-related decline. His production had dipped below average in his final year in Portland (age 31) and then again in his second year with Minnesota (age 33). This season was the start of four consecutive above average seasons from ages 34 to 37 — most of them coming off the bench.

Dana Barros, 1997-98, Boston Celtics | Age 30 — Barros was a little guy (just 5-11) who could really play. His best season rated a 172 PPA (age 27). This was his second-to-last above average season, but he was a decent contributor to age 34 and appeared in a game at 36.

Toni Kukoc, 2002-03, Milwaukee Bucks | Age 34 — This was the last above average season for Kukco, who made his mark as a superb role player with Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen, and the the Chicago Bulls.

Jon Barry, 2002-03, Detroit Pistons | Age 33 — Barry was a below average player for his first six NBA seasons, then abruptly got better at age 29. From 29 to 34 (seven seasons), he had fives seasons that rated average or better, and he just missed at 35. He retired after his age 36 season.

Danny Ainge, 1990-91, Portland Trail Blazers | Age 31 — Decent role-playing guard who had nine seasons that rated average or better in my PPA metric with a 143 peak at age 29 with the Sacramento Kings. This was Ainge’s last 100+ season in PPA, though he played four more years.

Bobby Jackson, 2006-07, New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets | Age 33 — My memory of Jackson is that he was feisty, competitive, and pretty good. He mostly came off the bench throughout his career, and was pretty good for a bench player. I have him with three seasons that rated average or better — his best was a 139. He lasted one more season after this comp year.

Rudy Gay, 2019-20, San Antonio Spurs | Age 33 — The idea of Gay was always better than the actual player, though he was still pretty good. His last above-average season was a 135 PPA at age 32, which also happened to be the highest rated season of his career. He played until age 36 — below average in each of his last four seasons.

Eric Piatkowski, 2002-03, Los Angeles Clippers | Age 32 — Good shooter without a ton of dimension to his game. His peak was a 121 PPA at age 31, and he played until age 37 (though severely limited over his final three seasons).

Manu Ginobili, 2013-14, San Antonio Spurs | Age 36 — One of my all-time favorite players for his all-around game and willingness to blend with other great players. Ginobili is the first player I remember seeing Euro-step with any regularity. I have him with three seasons with a 200+ PPA (208 peak at age 27) and three more that rated 180 or better. Just to level set this, John Wall, Bradley Beal, and Gilbert Arenas all had peak PPAs in the 160s. Ginobili had seven seasons that rated as good or better than the best season posted by any of that trio. By this season, he was in decline, but he played to age 40.

Derrick Rose, 2021-22, New York Knicks | Age 33 — Super promising youngster who was the youngest player to ever win the NBA Most Valuable Player Award (though he probably would have been seventh or eighth on my ballot). His career got wrecked by multiple injuries that forced him to miss major chunks of games for basically the rest of his career. This might sound familiar: when he could stay on the court, Rose was a solid contributor off the bench right through the 26 games he managed in this age 33 season. He retired at 35 after a couple more injury-riddled campaigns.

Next up: An analytics-driven 2024 Redraft.