Our resident betting dummies, Zac Jackson and Jon Greenberg, had a horrific run last week, going a combined 2-11. Then again, they also cover the Browns and the Bears, so maybe they’re getting some bad juju from their day jobs.
JON GREENBERG: (1-4 last week, 6-6-1 overall): I was in suburban Pittsburgh all week for family reasons. Sadly, I wasn’t able to make it back to Steubenville for Ohio Valley pizza. But in the spirit of the Ohio Valley, I’m marshaling my strength to pick some winners.
Let’s start by staying in Ohio for an unusual game in our beloved Mid-American Conference.
Miami (Ohio) is hosting UNLV at Yager Stadium on Saturday. Most people are flying back to Cincinnati from Vegas dead broke and tired. The Rebels are making the trek for work. UNLV is 3-0, while the Redhawks are 0-2 and coming off a bye week after a beatdown at Rutgers, and the Rebels are only 2.5-point favorites on the road. Hmm.
I’m going to stay away from the spread and take under 49.5. I’ve had a couple of groggy mornings in Oxford, and I’m betting the time change for UNLV will keep the scoring down.
As usual, we’ll bet the Civil War out in Oregon. The Ducks are great, the Beavers stink and we’ll see some points. I’m taking over 55.5.
I’d love to bet the Big 10 matchup of the week, Michigan (-2.5, 45.5) at Nebraska. Do you have a side? How about the other game of the week, the state of Ohio vs. the state of Florida in Kent State at FSU?
I’m just glad to be invited back after the way my picks went last week.
ZAC JACKSON (1-7 last week, 8-10 overall): I told Jon that I went 4-1 in the first week in my other NFL beat-the-spread contest and that I expected to go 1-4 in the second week. I went 1-4. Hard game this is.
Like the Browns, we’re only looking to the future. Kent State lost a heartbreaker last week and now goes to Florida State, which is off a bye. I can’t believe this line isn’t 49. I’ll take the Seminoles -45.5.
I was anxious to see the Michigan-Nebraska line, but I don’t think I have a strong lean there. I understand the slight move toward Michigan, since Dylan Raiola still has to prove he’s more than a Patrick Mahomes impersonator against decent competition.
I’m taking North Carolina +7 at UCF just on the coaching matchup being Bill Belichick vs. Scott Frost. It might be a 3-2 type of game, in which case I win! I’m also taking UNC’s archrival Duke -3.5 against N.C. State. Somebody’s spending money on football at Duke, and everybody with an online betting account has liked Duke the last two weeks. That went about like it usually does, but I think Duke has enough offense to win a wild one this weekend.
I also like over 56.5 in USC-Michigan State, your typical Big Ten game that kicks off at 11 p.m. EST. Michigan State was giving up points to Youngstown State last week, and USC gave up 357 yards to a bad Purdue team in a weird game that included a weather delay and multiple red-zone failures by Purdue.
GREENBERG: I also had a one-win week, made worse by taking your advice on Michigan State vs. Youngstown State. You said to take the Spartans because the line was off by a touchdown. That turned out to be true, but it was a touchdown the other way.
Let’s go to the NFL. I kept track of consensus picks on BetMGM last week, and the favorites went 9-6 with one 50-50 split. That brings me to a very lopsided game. What do you, an unbiased observer, think of the Cowboys-Bears line? Last I checked, 86 percent of BetMGM customers were taking the Cowboys -1 in Fox’s Game of the Week.
I’ve watched the Bears play their first two games in person and written scathing columns with hundreds of comments. And yet, I’d probably take the Bears here. Caleb Williams played better in his second game, and I’m not sure the defense can be that bad two games in a row, even with cornerback Jaylon Johnson out for the foreseeable future. I wouldn’t personally put money on the line, though. So I’ll suggest taking over 50.5. There should be points aplenty at Soldier Field.
A lot of people (55 percent) are riding the Bengals +3 at Minnesota in a battle of backup QBs. I’ll happily go opposite the crowd here and take the Vikings -3 at home. New Vikings starting running back Jordan Mason is going to go wild, and Bengals QB Jake Browning, who beat the Vikings at home in 2023, will hear that damn Gjallarhorn in his nightmares.
And no one (only 18 percent of BetMGM bettors) is taking the Titans at home against undefeated Indianapolis and its new QB hero Daniel Jones. Except me. I’d like it if I had a few more points, but give me Tennessee +3.5. (Warning: This could backfire dramatically.)
JACKSON: After you have a bad week, you probably should never chase the next week and try to get it back with one play.
Well, I have my play of the month. The chase is on with Green Bay-Cleveland under 41.5.
First, the Browns would struggle to get to 20 points if the Packers’ buses break down. But since both will show up, it will be a matchup of the two best yards-per-play defenses through two weeks and two of the scariest pass rushes (and rushers) in the league.
The Browns know their blueprint for trying to win a low-scoring game. The Packers will do what the Bengals and Ravens did and take away the deep ball from Old Man Joe Flacco. The punters and kickers will be busy.
Green Bay wins an ugly and close one, and the under hits.
I’ll take the Jets +7 (-120) in Tampa. The Bucs are on a short week coming off two dramatic wins and might be down multiple offensive line starters. I know Justin Fields is out, but is that really a significant loss?
Elsewhere, I want over 52.5 in Baltimore on Monday night and the Titans +3.5 over Jones and the Colts. My survivor pick is the Seattle Seahawks, who are hosting the Saints.
GREENBERG: I can’t believe we’re both betting on the Titans. What could go wrong? Nothing more than usual, I suppose. My survivor pick is Buffalo.
Zac Jackson’s picksJon Greenberg’s picks
(Photo of Cam Ward: Justin Ford / Getty Images)