By Sean Gentille, Shayna Goldman and Dom Luszczyszyn
For a team in a rebuild, the goal tends to be the same: Create a brighter future by drafting high-end talent.
Developing young players is important. So is establishing a culture that can one day lead to contention. But first and foremost, it’s necessary to be bad enough to land a franchise pillar at the draft. Those guys develop into the type of players who can carry a franchise to glory.
The Philadelphia Flyers’ core is still taking shape as they attempt to build around Matvei Michkov. Can they be bad enough to raise their future ceiling?
The projection
After surprisingly hitting 87 points in 2023-24, a market correction was expected for a rebuilding Flyers team. That’s exactly what happened, with a drop to 76 points. Right around 80 points is Philadelphia’s current normal.
The Flyers made some improvements on the ice (Trevor Zegras, Christian Dvorak) and off (coach Rick Tocchet) that should provide a small bump from last season’s finish. But it probably won’t be enough to push the team toward a playoff spot. It might even be a floor-raiser that pushes them too far away from the best odds at landing Gavin McKenna.
The Flyers aren’t going full scorched earth with their rebuild, which is probably the right call for cultural reasons. But it may also limit the team’s ultimate upside. For the sake of the rebuild, the Flyers will probably need some (bad) luck on their side. An 80-point year isn’t bad enough.
The big question
How high can Matvei Michkov climb?
There is, of course, a path to contention in Philly that doesn’t involve a catastrophic season or a No. 1 overall pick. These are not the Seattle Kraken, who’ve hung their hopes on Matty Beniers making a quantum leap offensively. These are not the Pittsburgh Penguins, a bottom-five team with a core born in the 1980s and a (still) middling prospect group.
This is a roster that already has Michkov, a 26-goal winger as a 20-year-old rookie, at the top. In that regard, Philadelphia has checked an important box: nothing about Michkov’s first North American season suggested that he won’t be an elite offensive force. Would it be great for the Flyers to snap their fingers and pair him with another elite player? Of course. That doesn’t happen in a vacuum, though — catastrophic seasons can have negative consequences. And while you’ll rarely find an NHL executive who, all things considered, would willingly build around a winger, Michkov looks like a relatively solid bet.
His impact in the offensive zone, as a shooter and creator, is already high-end. He’s also already one of the most effective rush players in the league. And he managed it all despite the requisite learning curve for young Russian players charged with adapting to life on a different continent. There were growing pains, of course. Nobody was surprised to see Michkov as a healthy scratch under John Tortorella. Michkov, though, responded — and while Tortorella’s exit was messy, each praised the other on the way out. Ultimately, for a young player with plenty to learn about off-the-puck responsibility, there are worse fates than 70 games with Torts calling the shots.
Now, Michkov gets to work under Tocchet, a coach who generally knows how to connect with offensive stars and maximize their talents for the good of the team. Phil Kessel in Pittsburgh is the template, but Tocchet’s resume in that area is long.
“(Tocchet) actually loves that kind of player,” an executive told The Athletic over the summer. “He just likes to rein him in a little bit. I think (Tocchet’s) much better for him than Tortorella was.”
Philly seems to agree. Nearly half of the Flyers fans who took Kevin Kurz’s late-July poll expect Michkov to become a top-20 player in the league. That’s a sentiment reflected by Scott Wheeler’s Prospect Tiers, a survey of scouts that placed Matvei behind only Macklin Celebrini, Connor Bedard and Matthew Schaefer overall, and near the top of the Franchise Tier. A player in that group, by Wheeler’s definition, is “unquestionably elite … someone who is the best player on a contending team or second best on a championship-caliber team.” Michkov clocked in at a similar spot on Corey Pronman’s under-23 rankings: sixth overall, behind only four centers (Celebrini, Bedard, Leo Carlsson, Adam Fantilli) and a defenseman (Luke Hughes).
So, yes, optimism is high. As it should be. Still, if the consensus is that the Flyers can thrive with Michkov as their best player — and that seems to be the case — it can come with some conditions, too. His most frequent linemate last season was Sean Couturier, a veteran warhorse and stabilizing force, but nobody’s idea of a first-line center in 2025-26. That’ll have to change. Nikita Kucherov, the best and most impactful winger of his generation, needed to play with Brayden Point for Tampa Bay to win Stanley Cup championships. David Pastrnak, as dangerous a goal scorer as there is in the league, can’t drag the Bruins to the playoffs on his own. Michkov needs help. The simplest way to do that would, of course, be to take an elite center at the top of the draft, but he’s good enough to give the Flyers other options.
The wild card
Do the Flyers have any hope between the pipes?
The concern about the Flyers’ lack of game-breaking skill is fair and well-founded, but it’s just as legitimate to point out that even mediocre goaltending would’ve dramatically changed the shape of their 2024-25 season. Samuel Ersson, Ivan Fedotov and Aleksei Kolosov combined to allow nearly 50 goals above expected. Ersson, the starter, led the way with an .883 save percentage. Nightmarish stuff.
Though the clock must be ticking, the organization still believes in Ersson as an NHL option. But he has struggled to handle an increased workload the past two seasons, and Fedotov and Kolosov failed as legitimate NHL backups. Wild as it sounds, Dan Vladar is a major upgrade on both. His .898 save percentage and minus-0.8 GSAx last season for Calgary were below league average but significantly better than the Flyers’ existing options, Ersson included. Vladar, though, has never played more than 30 games in an NHL season. It’s possible that he and Ersson work as a half-decent time-share tandem, but it’s far from a sure thing.
The strengths
If defense wins championships, the Flyers have a solid foundation to build on. That tends to be a core weakness for most rebuilding teams — look at the Blackhawks, Sharks and Ducks in recent years. Instead, it’s one of the Flyers’ best strengths.
On the back end, that starts with Travis Sanheim, who has become a staple on the top pair. His all-around game may not be flashy, but it earned him a role on Team Canada at the 4 Nations Face-Off last winter and a spot in this year’s Player Tiers project. The fact that his two-way play stands out despite his usage and environment is impressive.
He serves as a good example for someone such as Cam York. If York can rebound from a tough 2024-25, it should solidify the Flyers’ top pair. Sanheim and York were tasked with facing top competition last year, and still earned a 55 percent expected goal rate at five-on-five (the on-ice results were worse due to a low shooting percentage and poor goaltending).
That theme extends to Rasmus Ristolainen, too. He was fine defensively, but the team didn’t have much puck luck in his minutes. Playing in Philly has revitalized his game and made him an important part of the second pair. Nick Seeler brings some stability to the third. Those four, despite two minuses to round out the starting six, bring the Flyers’ blue line up to a plus-4.2 Defensive Rating, which is good for eighth in the league.
Up front, a mix of veterans and up-and-comers fuel the Flyers’ shutdown game. Tyson Foerster has emerged as a disruptive winger with a plus-3.6 Defensive Rating that leads the team. Alongside Noah Cates and Bobby Brink, Foerster’s line played well against top competition.
On the veteran front, Couturier wasn’t at his Selke-caliber heights over the last couple of years under Tortorella. But he still has the chops to slow down opponents. So does Garnet Hathaway. Even at the top of the lineup, Travis Konecny and Owen Tippett aren’t pushovers defensively, which helps solidify this group back in their own zone.
Defense isn’t the bread and butter of Konecny or Tippett’s games, though — it’s offense, which is especially more important in Philadelphia.
Konecny has used consistent scoring to become the Flyers’ offensive engine in recent years. His puck-moving ability is the key to that. He sets up his teammates’ shots often, and he does it with quality passes. His high-danger shot assist rate is comparable to players such as Robert Thomas and Jesper Bratt.
Tippett’s scoring and shot volume both dipped last season. But according to All Three Zones, he was still one of the best forwards at generating scoring chances in transition.
The weaknesses
The Flyers may have the defensive chops to contain their opponents, but the offense is seriously lacking. Last year’s team was actually top-10 in five-on-five expected goal generation, but couldn’t cash in on enough of its chances. But the power play was an outright killer, with a bottom-three ranking in expected and actual goals.
Konecny driving the Flyers is also a part of the problem. In a perfect world, he would be the team’s second- or third-best forward and not The Guy. A plus-8.8 Net Rating is in line with the average No. 2 forward. Michkov is on track to take over that role someday, but until that happens (or another star emerges), it slots most of the lineup above their depths.
Only four forwards have a positive offensive value in Philadelphia: Michkov, Konecny, Tippett and Couturier. And that aspect of Couturier’s game has declined in the wake of a serious back injury that cost him the 2022-23 season. After finding pre-injury consistency in the 70-point range, his pace has fallen below the 50-point mark since his return.
There aren’t many high-end puck movers outside those top forwards or sparks from the back end, either. Sanheim and Drysdale are the only two defenders with a positive Offensive Rating, and neither has proven to be a prolific scorer. Drysdale had some potential earlier in his career, but he hasn’t lived up to the hype. Their combined impact — a plus-1.9 Offensive Rating — isn’t enough to bring this group up from the bottom of the pack; this defense rates 31st in the league with a collective minus-12.4 Offensive Rating. It falls even lower if the team starts with Egor Zamula and Noah Juulsen in the lineup. Unlike most of the top four, Zamula and Juulsen aren’t strong enough defensively to make up for their lack of scoring. So, with the limitations of that blue line, it puts more emphasis on the forward group.
Foerster and Brink are two candidates for a glow-up under a new coaching staff. As much as their line produced last year, an on-ice shooting percentage of 13.6 isn’t a recipe for sustainable success. So both need more substance offensively to match what they bring defensively.
Outside of last year’s mainstays, neither offseason addition Christian Dvorak nor Trevor Zegras is a lock to improve the team’s scoring.
Zegras, at least, is somewhat of a wild card. He’s the type of reclamation project that makes sense for a rebuilding team. But his value cratered over the years, down to a minus-2.7 Net Rating, and he has a lot to prove. That may be slightly above league-average for a No. 8 forward, but it’s nowhere near the impact status he was expected to bring at this point in his career.
Zegras went from a potential franchise cornerstone to a fringe contributor with the Ducks. Not only did elements of his game disappoint, but injuries and his environment also held him back. At this point, his more realistic ceiling is as a No. 3 or 4 forward who contributes crafty scoring. But there is no guarantee that he will find his footing in Philly, either. Maybe it would be different if he were moving to a contender with a knack for maximizing talent.
The Flyers’ defensive structure should help insulate some of Zegras’ weaknesses. But unless he can keep up and complement Michkov and Konecny, he won’t have a lot of scoring support lower in the lineup. It’s not clear if he can drive his own line away from those types of difference-makers.
If the Flyers find a way to create more offense with this group — and that’s a big if — the coaches need to ensure it doesn’t diminish too much of the defensive structure put in place. The team can’t generate offense if it can’t get out of its own zone.
Any extra defensive zone time could be dicey. Despite being stingy at five-on-five last year, with the fourth-lowest rate of xGA/60 of 2.31, the Flyers were still a bottom-four team in goals against. Philly’s goalies gave up a collective 39 goals above expected. So while this season’s tandem looks stronger on paper, the bar is pretty low.
The worst case: 67 points
Flyers fans hoping for more high-end talent get their wish with a season that puts the team right at the bottom. They win the draft lottery and look ready to start moving up the ladder.
The best case: 92 points
Tocchet squeezes every ounce of talent out of the roster, enough to get some modest bumps — all the way to ninth in the East.
The bottom line
The Flyers have one truly major piece and enough other players of interest to eliminate tanking as an option, and they’re well-positioned for the summer of 2026. Another high pick would serve them best, but there needs to be contingency plans in place if, as expected, another year in the mushy middle awaits.
References
How the model works
How the model adjusts for context
Understanding projection uncertainty
Resources
Evolving Hockey
Natural Stat Trick
Hockey Reference
NHL
All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder
(Photo of Matvei Michkov: Eric Hartline / Imagn Images)