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A’ja Wilson and the Aces will try to avoid becoming the second WNBA team to start a best-of-five series with consecutive home losses tonight (Photo credit: Chris Poss)

According to the oddsmakers who proverbially share their home city, the Aces remain a heavy favorite to advance to their third WNBA Finals in four years despite dropping Game 1 of the semifinals in decisive fashion. On the other hand, history says there’s a better than even chance that the Fever will advance — nine of the previous 15 teams to take Game 1 of a best-of-five series on the road have won the series. History also tells us that it’s not terribly likely that the Fever will pull off a second straight upset tonight, with the previous 15 Game 1 thieves going 1-14 in their bids to take a 2-0 lead. Of those 14 losses, nine were by margins of at least seven points and only two were by fewer than five. As rare as it is for a team to go down 0-2 at home, Aces coach Becky Hammon knows all too well how it feels. The only time it’s happened in WNBA history was in the 2008 WNBA Finals when the Detroit Shock took the first two games on the road en route to a sweep of the San Antonio Silver Stars, who were led by Hammon in points and assists.

The Aces are looking to avoid a third loss in four games after winning 17 in a row and had to survive a potential buzzer-beater in their lone win since the streak ended. Las Vegas allowed offensive ratings over 110 points per 100 possessions to both the Storm (110.3 in Game 2) and Fever (111.3 in Game 1) in its losses so far this postseason, but inconsistent defense is nothing new for a team which finished the regular season eighth in defensive rating. The bigger concern, given how the Aces have won games this season, is that Las Vegas’ offensive rating has been on a straight downward trajectory since opening the playoffs with a rout of the Storm and a rating of 129.1 points per 100 possessions. That fell all the way to 105.1 in the Game 2 loss to the Storm before the dips to 94.9 and 91.3 in the last two games. The Aces are 3-11 (.214) when held to a rating below 100.0 points per 100 possessions compared to a 29-5 (.853) record when they put up a mark of at least 100, including 1-1 records in each bucket in the postseason.

In contrast to the Aces, the Fever have scored more efficiently as the postseason has gone on, posting a meager offensive rating of 82.9 points per 100 possessions in Game 1 at Atlanta before improving to marks of 91.7 in their Game 2 win, 104.8 in the series-clincher and most recently the aforementioned 111.3 in Game 1 against the Aces. Indiana also hasn’t allowed an opponent to put up an offensive rating higher than 98.8 points per 100 possessions so far this postseason, ranking third in the postseason field with a defensive rating of 90.6 points per 100 possessions in these playoffs. Defense has been the leading indicator of Fever results all season — they’re 26-6 (.813) when holding opponents to offensive ratings of 104.1 points per 100 possessions or worse and 17-1 (.944) when holding opponents to ratings under 95 points per 100 possessions. The Fever’s problem in the regular season was that they went 1-15 (.063) when allowing an offensive rating higher than 104.1, with the one win coming against the last-place Wings. Those 16 games represent exactly a third of the season including the playoffs, but if Indiana can really eliminate those outings entirely, there’s no reason it can’t keep winning.

One of the biggest questions facing each team in Game 2 is how their respective MVP finalist will follow up her Game 1 performance, but the Aces’ four-time MVP A’ja Wilson and the Fever’s fifth-place finisher Kelsey Mitchell are being asked for very different reasons.

Wilson finished with 16 points on 6-for-22 (27.3%) in Game 1, her worst shooting performance in 55 WNBA games with at least 20 field-goal attempts. That brought her field-goal percentage down to 47.4% for this postseason, which would be her lowest mark in a playoff run since 2021. It’s almost certainly not fair that the Aces depend so much on Wilson being at her best, but it’s pretty clear that they do. Las Vegas is 28-19 (.596) in Wilson’s postseason career, with a 17-5 (.773) mark when she scores more than 20 points compared to an 11-14 (.440) record when she has 20 or fewer. Pushing the bar a little higher, Las Vegas is unbeaten (10-0) when Wilson has at least 25 points in a playoff game, but it has a losing record (18-19) when she has fewer than 25 points.

Mitchell scored 34 points in Game 1, tied for the fifth-most points ever by a player in a playoff road win. Only Maya Moore (40), Angel McCoughtry (39), Breanna Stewart and Diana Taurasi (37 each) had ever scored more in that scenario while Mitchell tied Elena Delle Donne and Wilson for fifth on the list. As I’ve mentioned throughout Mitchell’s sensational start to the postseason, she’s scored at least 17 points in all six games of her playoff career, tied with Liz Cambage and Cappie Pondexter for the third-longest such streak to start a playoff career behind only McCoughtry (nine straight) and Cynthia Cooper (seven). It’s also tied for the longest active streak of playoff games with at least 17 points with a player I’ll spotlight shortly for the Lynx, but it’s probably not who you think.