TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Florida’s population growth is expected to continue growing over the next decade, but at a slower pace than in recent years as more residents begin to leave the state amid rising costs and economic pressure, according to a new economic forecast released Thursday by Florida TaxWatch.
The Florida Economic Forecast report projects Florida’s population will grow by about 2.3 million people, from 23.4 million in 2025 to 25.7 million in 2034. But net migration is set to decline, with daily inflows dropping from 891 people in 2025 to 705 by 2034.
Analysts cited rising housing costs, property taxes and insurance rates, along with increasingly frequent severe weather, as top reasons residents are leaving. Many are moving to states with no income tax, such as Tennessee and Texas, or with lower living costs, including Georgia and North Carolina.
“Florida entered 2025 with strong growth trends, but whether that pace is sustainable over the next several years is an open question,” Florida TaxWatch President and CEO Dominic M. Calabro said in a statement.
The report also projects employment will rise from 10.1 million in 2025 to 11.6 million in 2034, with unemployment holding near 4% long term. Gross domestic product growth is projected at 2.4% in 2025, slowing to 1.2% by 2034.
The group’s executive vice president and general counsel, Jeff Kottcamp indicated the projections are encouraging.
“Overall, Florida’s economic growth matches the national economic growth pattern in most economic indicators for the next five years,” Kottkamp said. “This is encouraging news as Florida TaxWatch continues to monitor our state’s economy through the year 2034 and beyond.”
Tourism, which hit a record 142.9 million visitors in 2024, is expected to drop in 2025 before steadying later in the decade.