After a week filled with big games, the hierarchy of college football appeared to reshuffle a touch. Alabama isn’t dead and still owns Georgia, which might not be that good again? Penn State yet again fell short against an elite opponent and Oregon could win the Big Ten again. Plus, LSU is not who we thought they were and Ole Miss could be ready to enter the big stage.
Even with all of that, the movement in the odds to win the national title among the top teams was minor. That is less exciting, but the betting market is less reactionary to the results of big games, especially compared to when teams had to be near perfect to get in the College Football Playoff.
Ohio State smushed Washington 24-6 and is still the favorite on BetMGM to win the national title with +500 odds. Oregon picked up a massive road win against Penn State, but only moved from +700 to +600. The Ducks are all alone in second in the odds after being in a three-way tie for third last week. Texas’ odds remained +700 and the Longhorns are now third all by themselves. Penn State dropped from +600 to +800.
Alabama had a bigger move, going from +1300 to +850 with its win at Georgia. Georgia is +1000 after being +700 a week ago.
All the top six teams in the odds to win the national title were in the top seven last week. With the 12-team playoff, individual losses won’t affect the national title favorites that much this early in the season, especially when Penn State and Georgia lost such close games that won’t drastically change their ratings. As far as the odds are concerned, it’s about getting into the CFP, not entering as a top seed, as last year’s champion Ohio State showed.
LSU, meanwhile, took a bigger hit. On the strength of flimsier-than-expected wins against Clemson and Florida, LSU was +1000 to win the national title last week, sixth-best in the country. That loss at Ole Miss, a game in which LSU was a slight underdog, did more to confirm worries about the Tigers after uninspiring performances throughout the season now that Clemson and Florida are no longer viewed as quality wins. The Tigers are +2500 to win it all, matching two-loss Notre Dame’s odds.
Movement in CFP odds
It’s the odds to make the College Football Playoff where things are more volatile. By clearing the Penn State hurdle, Oregon went from -325 to -2500 to make the 12-team playoff. The Ducks are the most likely team in the country to make the CFP, according to BetMGM’s odds. Ohio State isn’t far behind at -2000.
Miami didn’t play, but saw its odds improve from -300 to -475. Florida State’s loss at Virginia increased Miami’s chances of winning the ACC. Those teams meet this week with Miami favored by 4.5 points on the road. The betting market was skeptical of Florida State relative to other top contenders, even with that win against Alabama, and the Seminoles are now +500 to get into the CFP.
Nine schools are favored to make the CFP after Week 5’s action: Oregon (-2500), Ohio State (-2000), Miami (-475), Alabama (-220), Ole Miss (-210), Penn State (-185), Georgia (-175), Texas (-165) and Texas A&M (-120).
That number is up from seven a week ago. Alabama and Ole Miss vaulted into the club with big wins, while Texas A&M crept into minus-odds territory with a home win against Auburn. Penn State and Georgia stay among that group despite losses, but the implied odds are giving them less than a two-thirds chance of getting into the CFP. LSU fell out, going from -200 to +200, implying their odds to make the 12-team field got cut in half with that loss in Oxford.
Texas Tech is viewed as the most likely Big 12 champion at +190 and is even more likely to make the CFP (+120).
For the pot-stirrers, 2-2 Notre Dame is +150 to get in. The Fighting Irish have a solid chance of winning out with a schedule that currently features no more top-25 teams. Barring another loss, Notre Dame will likely be on the edge until enough teams ahead of them lose more.
As for the fifth conference champion spot, the American has the three most likely contenders: South Florida (+320), Memphis (+400) and Tulane (+400).
(Photo of Ty Simpson: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)