Cubs flash leather vs. Padres, but can they beat well-rested Brewers at their own game in NLDS?

NL Central rivals meet in the NLDS, as the Milwaukee Brewers are set to square off against the Chicago Cubs. It’ll mark the first time the two teams have ever faced one another in the postseason (they played a one-game playoff for the division title in 2018, but that counts as a regular-season affair). The Brewers were resting up with their bye, but the Cubs had a hard-fought series against the Padres. 

In it, the Cubs flashed the leather with particularly great defensive showings from their up-the-middle guys, second baseman Nico Hoerner, shortstop Dansby Swanson and center fielder Nico Hoerner. 

That wasn’t a surprise. That’s what the Cubs do. The fun thing is, so do the Brewers. We’re in for a defensive clinic this series. 

Team defense

One of my favorite defensive stats is defensive efficiency. That would be the percentage of balls put in play converted into outs. For a team stat, it accounts for everything. Does a team make too many errors? Position poorly? Have a lack of range? Any of that would show up here in a bad way. If a team has great range, doesn’t make errors and positions their players well, they’ll convert a great number of batted balls into outs. 

The Cubs were second in the majors this season at 71.9% (the Rangers were first at 72.0%). The Brewers sat fifth at 70.9%. 

Both teams are sure-handed in sitting above average in fielding percentage (Cubs fourth, Brewers 10th). 

Defensive runs saved attempts to assign a value of how many runs a defense either saves (positive) or costs (negative) its team over the course of a season. For example, unsurprisingly, the Rockies are brutal here and ranked dead last at -59. The Cubs were second at +83 while the Brewers were a respectable 11th at +31.

In Statcast’s fielding run value, the Cubs are second in all of baseball and the Brewers are third. In Statcast’s outs above average, the Cubs rank fourth in baseball, with the Brewers fifth. 

It might appear the Cubs have an advantage here, maybe even a sizeable one, but batted balls are fickle in short series and the biggest takeaway should be that both teams are excellent at defense and will help their pitchers all series. 

The individual stars

On the Brewers’ side, catcher William Contreras is a strong defender who is above average at cutting down basestealers. Second baseman Brice Turang is second in defensive runs saved at his position. Shortstop Joey Ortiz sits fifth in fielding run value among shortstops. Sal Frelick ranks third among right fielders in fielding run value and fourth in DRS while Isaac Collins rates out well in left. Ortiz is also eighth in the NL, regardless of position, in Fangraphs’ defensive WAR. 

For the Cubs, using fielding run value, Hoerner rates out as the best second baseman in baseball by a large margin and is 11th in all of baseball at any position. He also leads Turang in DRS at second base, 17-7, for the top spot. Crow-Armstrong rates as the fourth-best defender in baseball, via fielding run value, and the second-best outfielder behind Ceddanne Rafaela of the Red Sox. He’s also second to Rafaela in DRS. Swanson is fourth among shortstops in DRS. Third baseman Matt Shaw is third among third basemen in DRS. 

In baseball-reference.com’s defensive WAR, Hoerner is third among NL players, with Crow-Armstrong fifth and Swanson seventh. In Fangraphs’ version of defensive WAR, Crow-Armstrong is fourth with Hoerner ninth and Swanson 21st.

For the eye test in search of highlight-reel plays, watch PCA, Hoerner, Swanson and Ortiz the most. 

Again, it looks like the Cubs have the advantage here, but the big story is that the Cubs-Brewers NLDS is going to be a glove affair for the ages.