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Las Vegas Aces coach Becky Hammon has a lot of reasons to smile with her team on the brink of a third WNBA title in four years (Photo credit: Chris Poss)
My apologies if this is the third time you’re hearing this from me in four days, but if the history of best-of-seven series in American sports is to be believed, the Las Vegas Aces are about as close to guaranteed a WNBA title as a team can be short of hoisting the trophy. Teams in MLB, the NBA and the NHL have a combined 368-5 (.987) series record after taking a 3-0 lead, including 120-0 on the hardwood. NBA teams in the Aces’ position have gone 76-44 (.633) in their attempts to finish sweeps in Game 4, with 34 of the 44 remaining teams finishing the series off in Game 5. So, history says there’s a pretty good chance that Monday’s edition of Tulin’s Treasures will be a celebration of my preseason Aces championship prediction the Aces dynasty and the Mercury’s season to wrap up my postmortem series. Judging by that history and the sports miseries befalling a certain other city starting with a “Ph” this week, it’s probably not gonna be a fun weekend for the “mighty Mercury.” On the other hand, who could be better equipped to rise from the ashes than a team representing a city whose name was inspired by a mythical bird that did the same?
The Mercury will have to play tonight without star forward Satou Sabally, who was probably her team’s best player in the first three games of the Finals but suffered a concussion just over halfway through the fourth quarter of Game 3. She’s averaging 21.7 points per game in the Finals while hitting 45.7% from the field and making multiple 3-pointers in each Finals game. Losing Sabally is undoubtedly a crushing blow for the Mercury, although there did seem to be at least an immediate galvanizing effect. Phoenix scored 11 of the next 13 points following Sabally’s injury and eventually tied the game on multiple occasions after having trailed by 17 points through three quarters. It’s genuinely heartbreaking to see Sabally’s first Finals appearance so tragically interrupted after she already endured more than her share of injuries during her six seasons in the WNBA. With 39 regular-season appearances, this season was only the second time Sabally’s played more than 17 games in a regular season, and I imagine she’ll earn All-WNBA honors today just like she did when appearing in 38 games in 2023. She missed time with a back problem as well as a previous concussion as a rookie in 2020, Achilles soreness limited her to about half of the season (17 of 32 games) in 2021, knee and ankle injuries kept her out of all but 11 games in 2022, and she didn’t play until after the Olympic break in 2024 due to a shoulder injury suffered during Olympic qualifying.
There was a clear strength-vs-strength matchup at the heart of this series from the start, as the Aces came into the Finals with the best offensive rating in the postseason while the Mercury had the best defensive rating. Each team was ranked fifth at the other end of the floor, so that end also looked to be relatively evenly matched. Two of the games have ended up pretty close, but Las Vegas has won the clash of titans when it has the ball with flying colors. The Aces have put up offensive ratings of at least 107 points per 100 possessions in every game, the first three times Phoenix let its opponent score at a rate higher than 97.6 points per 100 possessions so far this postseason. The Aces had marks of 111.3 and 116.9 points per 100 possessions in their one-possession wins in Games 1 and 3, making them the 12th team ever with multiple ratings of 111+ points per 100 possessions in a single Finals, the fourth team with multiple wins by three or fewer points in a single Finals, and unsurprisingly, the only team on both of those lists. In fact, the Aces’ wins in Games 1 and 3 matched the total number of times a team won a game by one possession with an offensive rating of 110+ points per 100 possessions in Finals history before this season. Minnesota did it once each in 2015 and last year. The Mercury, on the other hand, are the first team with multiple Finals losses with an offensive rating of at least 107 points per 100 possessions while taking the sixth and seventh such losses all-time. No team had lost a Finals game under those circumstances since 2019 before it happened to Phoenix in Games 1 and 3.
I’m guessing it’s not news to you that the Aces’ dominant offense is powered by the incomparable A’ja Wilson. I’m just going to declare Wilson the overwhelming favorite to win Finals MVP because I can’t find a sports book listing odds and I’m certain it’s the case. The GOAT is averaging 27.7 points per game so far in the Finals after scoring 34 in Game 3, capped off by an iconic game-winner over a double team from DeWanna Bonner and Alyssa Thomas (to my knowledge, they’re not actually married yet, but never let the facts get in the way of a great joke). She’s scored 18 more points than any other player in the series so far, with Sabally the next-highest scoring player. If (when) Wilson does in fact win her second Finals MVP, she’ll join Sheryl Swoopes as the only player to win MVP, Finals MVP and Defensive Player of the Year (which she shared with Alanna Smith) in the same season. It would also make her the second player to win each of the league’s top three individual honors multiple times, along with Lisa Leslie.