There’s a tendency in data circles to focus on growth rates and turn our sights to the high-growth areas as the best opportunities. Doing so upon the publication of NBJ’s Global Supplement Business Report would, deservedly, place the Middle East in the spotlight. From 2024 through at least 2028 (the extent of our forecast period) NBJ sees this as the fastest growing of the 22 countries or regions we track. Indeed, the Middle East is a region to watch, and companies that can develop early positioning in the region—brands finding distribution, suppliers finding partners—can likely win big in a market approaching $5 billion in 2028.
But growth tells an incomplete story. Even with its stellar growth, the Middle East is slated to grow to $3.43 billion in 2025. We expect the U.S. market to grow by $3.93 billion this year.
I like to look at those areas that are tops in both market size and growth rates, and for the fourth year in a row, that turns eyes to India and Latin America—both holding top 5 status by both metrics. Of these two, India—though lower than Latin America in both size and growth—will be the more dynamic market to watch.
At Global Report press time, we’re forecasting India growing by 8% in 2025 to become a $15.83 billion market. But there’s so much more going on for the nation that has so effectively challenged China as the “it” country in the global supplement market. Some data points come from geopolitical wranglings, and as India finds itself near the center of a trade war with the U.S., that couldn’t be truer.
How the subcontinent, overall, navigates the economic hit of U.S. tariffs—a meaningful, but not catastrophic hit as just 17% of India’s export market is to the U.S.—will depend on rapid strategizing. In supplements, this will mean shoring up agreements with U.S. brands on key India-only ingredients while also deepening partnerships with other global markets.
But local markets are the focus of the Global Supplement Business Report, and development here may depend on how much necessity drives innovation. Growth is already strong in India, and even stronger since the pandemic. Brands like Dabur, Himalaya and Patanjali are well established, and a growing middle class, rising urbanization and greater focus on preventive health all create a massive addressable market beyond what existing brands can serve. While this may present an opportunity for foreign brands to move in, it may also present an opportunity for more domestic brand/product development.
But where India is hit in global competitive advantage—ingredient supply—is mismatched with such opportunity. A deeper focus on the domestic market will be no simple pivot. India is already showing strong growth, and building new brands and e-commerce and retailer relationships will likely take much more time than the uncertain duration of the punitive tariffs.
Still, such focus on the domestic market will be a worthy effort regardless of U.S. trade war outcomes. If India does turn inward in such a manner, or if Europe or other nations swoop in to serve the growing market, the consistent 8% growth NBJ forecasts into the future may prove conservative.
Smart data analysis requires looking beyond the obvious datapoints—and right now, some of the datapoints most crucial to India are being delivered by the White House. The degree to which NBJ’s 8% forecasts prove conservative may directly correlate to how quickly and creatively India responds to these pressures. India may continue to demonstrate how the strongest markets are those that can make lasting change.
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