By Kameko Marquez
Business sentiment in Thurston County has fallen to its lowest level since 2010, a Thurston Economic Development Council Economic Vitality Index report showed.
The report found signs of a moderate downward trend taking shape after several years of post-pandemic recovery.
The Economic Vitality Index (EVI) posted a reading of 116.8 for the second quarter of 2025 — down 1.7 points from its post-pandemic high of 118.5 at the end of 2024.
The composite index measures performance using five monthly indicators: total residential building permits, initial unemployment claims, consumer sentiment, U.S. securities yield spreads, and equity financial instruments deemed impactful to the local economy.
The EVI, developed in partnership with Saint Martin’s University in Lacey and supported by public sector and private sector sponsors, serves as a planning and forecasting tool for regional economic stakeholders.
Thurston Economic Development Council and Council for Business & Innovation Executive Director Michael Cade said in a statement on Tuesday, July 15, that the recent decline has paralleled “delayed decisions, paused investments, and shelved expansion projects.”
The downturn also corresponds with sharp drops in both business and consumer sentiment.
Business confidence index falls
The CEO Confidence Index, published semiannually by the Economic Development Council, dropped to 34.5 — a fall of 10.6 points from the previous quarter and its lowest value since its inception. in 2010.
The index reading is derived by responses from local business executives, who assess their outlook based on conditions in their own industries and the local economy.
“There is a good deal of uncertainty facing Thurston County’s economy. … The start of a moderate downward trend does appear to be materializing,” said Saint Martin’s University Professor Riley Moore.
Profit strategies, price pressure
Among the people surveyed, 52% of executives said they expected profits over the next year to be “substantially better, moderately better, or the same,” down from 68% in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Of those executives projecting gains, 47% attributed profits to “an increase in market growth and demand,” down from 54% six months earlier.
Meanwhile, 26% said they anticipated needing to raise prices, up from 17 percent in the previous quarter. In the latest findings, price increases overtook cost reductions as the second-most cited source of projected profits, behind demand growth.
The Economic Development Council uses the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index as a proxy for local perceptions of economic conditions. The national index fell to 52.2%, down from 73% at the end of 2024 — the second-lowest score since the EVI’s inception.
“Consumer and household expenditures are a major driver of economic growth at both the local and national levels,” the report states.
The EVI report also notes macroeconomic and political factors are contributing to local uncertainty.
“The rollout of policies to address state budgetary shortfalls, along with reduced national, state, and local public sector allocations, are expected to mute economic gains for Thurston County given the large public sector influence on the local economy,” said Moore in the report..
Foundational sectors stay active
Although economic sentiment has weakened, the Economic Development Council cites government and military sectors as key sources of stability.
“Thurston County remains uniquely resilient. With a high concentration of stabilizing institutions — including our state government and Joint Base Lewis-McChord — we benefit from a base of recession-resistant economic activity,” Cade said.
Cade also added Thurston County continues to rank among the top 10 U.S. regions in multiple economic performance categories, and is home to “the most inclusive middle class of any similarly sized region in the country.”
Other public-sector partners echoed support for EVI and its influence in development planning.
Jennica Machado, Economic Development Director for the City of Olympia, backed the EVI as it gives city government a big-picture view and up-to-date data about how the economy is doing. She said city staff utilize the information to help guide planning and make decisions.
Port of Olympia Executive Director Alex Smith said the port’s vision for a strong and resilient Thurston County depends on continued collaboration with local partners. She said sponsoring the 2025 EVI mirrors the port’s support for efforts that advance the region’s economic health.
South Puget Sound Community College Tim Stokes said the college’s role as a founding sponsor of the EVI showcases its commitment to supporting local economic development.
He noted the college works closely with county partners in order to build a resilient and inclusive economy that meets the changing needs of students and the workforce.
Stokes added the college’s partnership with the Economic Development Council uplifts long-term community growth.
In terms of planning support, the Economic Development Council sis expanding its capacity to deliver actionable economic data, and now invites community groups and project stakeholders to request planning presentations and in-depth analysis, as part of its advocacy in supporting community and economic development decision makers.
The report can be accessed here. People seeking customized briefings or data sessions can reach out to Connor Tibke, lead author of the EVI, at CTibke@thurstonedc.com.