If the Detroit Tigers make ace Tarik Skubal available in trade discussions this winter, and signs point to them doing just that, then the New York Mets are expected to get involved.

The question would be, to what extent? Enough to close a deal? That part, based on conversations with league sources, depends on a couple of factors, such as how much the Mets would need to surrender and what the rest of the market may look like.

Skubal, 28, is entering his walk year after producing a 2.30 ERA in 62 starts over the last two seasons. The New York Post reported that the Tigers and Skubal, a Scott Boras client, were more than $200 million apart in contract talks last year. A lot has happened since then. Garrett Crochet, for instance, signed an extension with the Boston Red Sox (six years, $170 million) following a deal from the Chicago White Sox. Skubal, meanwhile, authored another season worthy of the American League Cy Young Award.

It’s unknown how far apart the sides would be today, but at this point, that may just be semantics. While it’s possible the Tigers, fresh off back-to-back postseason appearances, may hold onto Skubal, some executives around the league are figuring that Detroit will make the right-hander available based on the Post’s reporting.

The Mets are interested in adding to their rotation in a meaningful way. Nolan McLean, the pitcher on their staff most resembling a No. 1, has thrown in a total of eight major-league games. Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns also said at his last news conference that counting on Kodai Senga to make 30 starts would be foolish. That leaves Clay Holmes, Sean Manaea and David Peterson, plus rookies Brandon Sproat and Jonah Tong. The Mets need more innings from their starters, and they are motivated to find help.

Since taking over in late 2023, Stearns has not signed a pitcher to a long-term deal or given up top prospects in a trade. The Mets were at least involved, however, in Crochet talks. Skubal presents another intriguing opportunity. Unless the Pittsburgh Pirates make Paul Skenes available in trade talks, Skubal would end up being the best pitcher in the market. Any team with aspirations of winning should pick up the phone.

Outside of McLean, the Mets are probably willing to consider dealing any player in hypothetical trade talks. Skubal, though, is just a rental; executives suggested that it’d be unlikely for Boras to do an extension so close to free agency.

Just to provide a general idea, one industry source unaffiliated with the club speculated Detroit may look to ask for two top-level starting pitchers and a position player prospect. In Mets parlance, that means something like Tong, Sproat and prospect Jett Williams. The Mets’ farm system ranks among the league’s best, but such a demand would significantly compromise its health. Perhaps it takes less or involves a major-league player or two; teams in recent years haven’t exactly received jaw-dropping returns for players entering their walk years.

Skubal’s situation draws some parallels to the Milwaukee Brewers trading Corbin Burnes two winters ago, but multiple high-ranking executives speculated that the cost should be greater to acquire Skubal. The Baltimore Orioles ended up dealing DL Hall and Joey Ortiz, plus a 2024 competitive balance round A draft pick. The executives suggested Skubal would require a greater return because the free-agent market is lacking.

If the Mets hold a similar viewpoint of the free agent class (which includes Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez and Dylan Cease), then they’d have to operate in the trade market. That gets to the heart of the issue regarding any Skubal pursuit. Would it be worth trading for someone like, say, Freddy Peralta (whom the Brewers hold a team-friendly club option on) instead?

Peralta is very good. He just hit a career-high in innings (176 2/3). But in each of the last two seasons, Skubal has surpassed 190 innings. Peralta, 29, is just one example of a helpful pitcher who should be available, while requiring less of a return than Skubal. That’s because Peralta is not as good as Skubal.

Then again, who is?