Elena Rybakina kept her hopes of reaching the PIF WTA Finals Riyadh alive with a 6-3, 6-2 win over Jasmine Paolini in Saturday’s semifinals of the AUX · Ningbo Open. Paolini would have clinched her spot in Riyadh with a win, but Rybakina’s victory meant her qualification would have to wait — at least for a few hours.

The qualification picture changed again when the Tokyo draw was released. Mirra Andreeva was not among the entrants for next week’s tournament, and as a result, Paolini now qualifies for Riyadh based on her current position in the Race.

That leaves one singles spot still available, and it will be decided in Tokyo between Rybakina and Andreeva:

If Rybakina loses the Ningbo final, she must win Tokyo to qualify.

If Rybakina wins the Ningbo title, she must reach the Tokyo semifinals to qualify.

Any other combination of results means Andreeva qualifies and Rybakina becomes the first alternate.

In a battle of Top 10 players, Rybakina prevailed in 1 hour and 29 minutes to reach her second final of the season. 

“I knew the match would be very tough,” Rybakina said after the match. “Jasmine has played really well this season. She’s a really tough opponent, and I knew I would need to bring my best. I’m happy I stayed focused until the end and won in straight sets.”

Ningbo: Scores | Draws | Order of play

Paolini pushed her opponent to the final point, but Rybakina stayed locked in from start to finish to seal the win.

In a match filled with extended rallies and marathon games, here were the biggest moments in the semifinal:

Set 1 – 0-0, 40-40: From the opening game, both players showed they understood what was at stake. Rybakina entered the match as one of the WTA’s top servers this season, leading the tour in aces, as well as percentage of first-serve points, total serve points and service games won.

Naturally, she faced a break point before she could blink.

Rybakina responded with her usual poise, using a sharp serve and forehand combination to erase the threat. It was the first of three break points she saved in the opening set, ultimately holding for a 1-0 lead.

Set 1 – 5-3: After a back-and-forth game that featured 20 points, Rybakina converted her fourth break point with another forehand winner, this time of the cross-court variety, to finally break serve and earn a chance to serve for the first set.

Despite eight break points between the two players, it would be the only break of the opening set.

Set 1 – 5-3, 40-40: The third break point came as Rybakina served for the set. Paolini opened the game with a dynamite forehand winner and clawed back from 30-15 down to earn another chance to break.

Once again, Rybakina stood tall, this time producing a backhand winner to fend off danger. She followed it with an ace — one of 10 she would hit in the match — to earn a set point before closing out the opener after 51 minutes.

First-set stats that mattered:

Rybakina hit 21 winners, including seven aces.
She landed just 47% of her first serves but won 81% of those points.
She converted one of five break points; Paolini went 0-for-3.

Set 2 – 6-3, 3-2: With the second set knotted at two games apiece, Rybakina applied the first real pressure of the set. She jumped out to a 0-40 lead in the fifth game, threatening to go up a set and a break.

Paolini, as she often does in the face of adversity, responded with grit, winning three straight points to force deuce. But she couldn’t hold off a fourth break chance, as Rybakina ripped a backhand “return-to-sender” winner off Paolini’s serve to take control.

Set 2 – 6-3, 5-2, 15-40: Serving for the match, Rybakina faced one last challenge. Paolini earned three break points at 0-40 but again couldn’t convert. Rybakina fired her final ace of the match to save the first, then won the next two points to reach deuce. 

Paolini earned one final break chance after that, but Rybakina closed with three straight points to book her spot in the final.

What’s next

Rybakina will face Ekaterina Alexandrova in Sunday’s final. Alexandrova, who made her top 10 debut this week, defeated Diana Shnaider in straight sets in Saturday’s other semifinal.

Alexandrova leads the head-to-head 3-1 and won their most recent meeting in straight sets, though the two haven’t faced off since Adelaide in early 2024.