If the mere thought of a 9-3 College Football Playoff team makes you cringe, well, consider this a warning.

The chances of having a team — or two — in the 12-team Playoff with three losses seem pretty good right now.

What we learned about the CFP in Week 8, as the number of unbeaten teams dwindled to six, is that Vanderbilt isn’t just a fun story this year, Georgia Tech might be a team of destiny and the losses are piling up around the country.

A weekend of upsets

It started Friday. Louisville knocked off No. 2 Miami in an ACC game that put the Cardinals (5-1, 2-1 ACC) back in the mix to win the conference and knocked the Hurricanes (5-1, 1-1) from the ranks of the unbeaten.

Then Saturday, No. 7 Texas Tech went down at Arizona State, as the defending Big 12 champion showed it’s not ready to simply hand the league over to the Red Raiders’ high-priced portal all-stars.

It was tempting to pencil both Miami and Texas Tech into the Playoff field during their impressive starts to the season. And this weekend’s losses might just be detours on the way to the CFP. The Hurricanes’ odds of making the field, according to Austin Mock’s projections, are still 89 percent, third-best in the nation behind Ohio State and Indiana.

Texas Tech’s CFP odds dropped to 67 percent. The Red Raiders (6-1, 3-1 Big 12) are still the favorites to win the Big 12, though BYU (7-0, 4-0) is the only unbeaten team left in the conference after the Cougars beat rival Utah (5-2, 2-2) on Saturday night in another tense and physical Holy War.

No. 5 Ole Miss (6-1, 3-1 SEC) was the other unbeaten Power 4 team to fall, losing 43-35 at No. 9 Georgia (6-1, 4-1), despite scoring touchdowns on its first five drives.

Kirby Smart’s defense is unrecognizable from his best teams, but the Bulldogs still have championship mettle. They’ll need it to return to the CFP this season. The SEC race is shaping up to be an absolute free-for-all. There were eight SEC games played Saturday, a first for the conference. Six were decided by one possession, including two that went to overtime. The margins within the conference have never seemed slimmer.

Average margin of victory in SEC games so far this season is 10.0. That would be lowest since at least 2000. Pvs low was 11.2 in 2006.

Average margin of victory was above 16.7 in SEC games from 2010-23 https://t.co/dj0jZQh7wY

— Josh Dubow (@JoshDubowAP) October 19, 2025

With all that, the SEC favorites right now, at least according to Mock’s projections, are the usuals: Alabama and Georgia.

The Crimson Tide (6-1, 4-0), who beat Tennessee 37-20, and the Bulldogs are two of the 10 Power 4 teams projected to win 10 or more regular-season games.

Quick math suggests that unless more than one Group of 5 conference team makes the CFP — highly unlikely — somebody is getting in at 9-3. Probably out of the SEC, or maybe the Big Ten.

Nine wins felt like an unofficial cutoff for the CFP selection committee last year, but remember, if Clemson hadn’t won the ACC championship to steal a bid, Alabama would have gotten in at 9-3 over 10-2 Miami, 10-2 BYU and 10-3 Iowa State.

The committee has a new strength of record metric to use this year, which is supposed to emphasize schedule strength. That alone should increase the chances of a team getting in with only nine victories.

Playoff Pavia?

First, Indiana. Now, Vanderbilt?

Last year, Vandy was a fun upstart story after upsetting Alabama, while IU was the CFP interloper in Curt Cignetti’s first season with the Hoosiers.

After the Commodores beat LSU (5-2, 2-2 SEC) on Saturday in a game that was very much not an upset, Vanderbilt is now a legitimate CFP contender. Sounds wild, but we also live in a world where Indiana (7-0, 4-0 Big Ten) will probably be the No. 2 team in the Associated Press Top 25 when it comes out Sunday.

“This game won’t define our season,” Vanderbilt coach Clark Lea said. “There’s a lot more for this team to accomplish.”

As the super-team era gives way to the NIL/transfer portal era, here are the six remaining unbeaten teams in the middle of October: Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, BYU, Georgia Tech and Navy. Totally normal.

As for Diego Pavia and Vandy, the path to a CFP bid is still bumpy, despite reaching 6-1 for the first time since 1950.

Vanderbilt plays Missouri (6-1, 2-1) and Texas (5-2, 2-1) the next two weeks and its regular-season finale is at Tennessee (5-2, 2-2). The Commodores have a 6 percent chance to reach the Playoff, according to Mock’s model.

But doubt Pavia and the Dores at your own peril. Think of it this way: Vandy secured bowl eligibility Saturday. Most years, that alone would have been cause for celebration in Nashville.

“I don’t want to sound like I’m not excited about the fact that we’ve secured a postseason bid, but we’re really interested in taking this as far as we can,” Lea said.

Team of destiny

No. 12 Georgia Tech (7-0, 4-0 ACC) has a team of destiny vibe. The Yellow Jackets could have been buried early at Duke on Saturday. The Blue Devils reached the red zone four times in the first three quarters. But those possessions resulted in as many touchdowns for Georgia Tech as for Duke (4-3, 3-1).

GEORGIA TECH SCOOP N’ SCORE 🤯 pic.twitter.com/ibu9s5Eqyn

— ACC Network (@accnetwork) October 18, 2025

Instead of being down two or three touchdowns midway through the third quarter, Georgia Tech was down 10-7. The Yellow Jackets then went on a 20-0 run to improve to 7-0 for the first time since 1966.

A few weeks ago, Georgia Tech took advantage of a missed offside call to beat Wake Forest in overtime. The first sign of a magical season for the Yellow Jackets was a 55-yard game-winning field goal as time expired against Clemson in mid-September.

“It’s a special group of men. They gotta stop doing this to me though,” said coach Brent Key, whose team has won four games by fewer than 10 points.

Nothing should be taken for granted, but with only Syracuse, NC State, Boston College and Pitt left on their ACC slate, the Yellow Jackets would likely have to absorb two significant upsets to miss out on the ACC title game.

The downside is Georgia Tech’s schedule isn’t going to leave it much, if any, room for error. Clemson’s (3-4, 2-3) continued descent isn’t helping its ACC rivals’ strength of schedule. Same goes for Florida State (3-4, 0-4).

Georgia Tech does finish the season with its traditional rivalry game against Georgia. The Yellow Jackets and Bulldogs went eight overtimes last year in Athens before Georgia prevailed.

Georgia has a 77 percent chance of reaching the CFP, according to Mock’s projections. Georgia Tech is sitting at 49 percent.

Five more things to know about the CFP race

1. No. 13 Notre Dame (5-2) won a wild 34-24 game against No. 20 USC (5-2, 3-1 Big Ten), behind the dynamic running back duo of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. The Irish are up to 73 percent to reach the CFP. Notre Dame should be favored by double digits in each of its remaining games, with Navy and resurgent Pitt the toughest hurdles to clear.

2. According to the SEC, Alabama became the first team in the conference to win four straight games in four straight weeks against ranked teams (Georgia, Vandy, Missouri, Tennessee).

3. Two Group of 5 unbeatens also went down Saturday, one not surprising and the other downright shocking. Boise State (5-2, 3-0) pounded previously unbeaten UNLV 56-31 to assert itself as the clear favorite in the Mountain West. Having already lost to USF and Notre Dame, the Broncos are probably not going back to the CFP — which means the Mountain West probably is not either. Meanwhile, in the American, No. 22 Memphis (6-1, 2-1) was shocked by UAB (3-4, 1-3), previously winless in conference. The Blazers, in their first game since firing coach Trent Dilfer, held off a late surge by the Tigers for a 31-24 victory. The American race still sets up well to decide a CFP spot, but Memphis’ loss probably cost the school a chance to host ESPN’s “College GameDay” next Saturday when No. 19 USF (6-1, 3-0) comes to town. Still, it’s a huge game in what’s looking like a four-way race with Navy (6-0, 4-0) and Tulane (6-1, 3-0).

4. Looking for a Group of 5 dark horse outside of the American? How about James Madison (6-1, 4-0) of the Sun Belt? The Dukes’ only loss was at Louisville. On Saturday, they outscored Old Dominion 35-0 in the second half to win 63-27. Craziest stat: ODU had 275 yards at halftime and 10 in the second half.

5. The Big 12 is always good at producing one surprising contender, and this season it’s Cincinnati. The 24th-ranked Bearcats (6-1, 4-0), who finished 5-7 last season, avoid Texas Tech and Arizona State in the conference schedule, but do host BYU in November. Cincinnati has an 11 percent chance of reaching the CFP.