Wondering what your next move should be with Mosaic stock? You are not alone. If you have been watching this company for any length of time, you have probably noticed the recent rollercoaster ride. After a solid year-to-date gain of 20.3%, the stock has taken a bit of a breather over the past month, dipping 14.2%. Pull back further and you see that five-year holders are still up by an impressive 72.9%, but the longer three-year stretch paints a less rosy picture, with shares down over 40.2%. These swings are not just numbers on a screen; they reflect big-picture shifts for global agriculture and commodity markets that keep Mosaic in the spotlight. Sometimes it is a winner when fertilizer demand spikes, and other times it becomes a riskier play when things get volatile.
One factor keeping investors interested, even through the ups and downs, is how Mosaic stacks up on valuation. By our count, the company clears five out of six undervaluation hurdles in our value scorecard, earning a strong 5 out of 6. In plain English, that means Mosaic is looking like a bargain right now by most yardsticks, even if the market has been slow to notice. As we break down exactly what that score means, we will take a close look at the usual valuation tools and, if you stick with us to the end, introduce an even more revealing way to measure Mosaic’s worth.
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model aims to estimate a company’s intrinsic value by projecting its future free cash flows and then discounting those back to today’s dollars. This helps investors understand what the company is truly worth, rather than relying solely on current market prices.
For Mosaic, the latest available free cash flow (FCF) is $68.7 Million. Analysts provide cash flow estimates for the next five years, projecting it to climb to $675.5 Million by 2029. After that, future free cash flows are extrapolated by Simply Wall St using conservative growth assumptions. All cash flows are considered in US dollars.
Based on these projections, Mosaic’s intrinsic value per share comes in at $33.67 using the DCF method. Compared to the current share price, this implies the stock is trading at a 12.9% discount. This suggests the market has not fully recognized the company’s underlying value.
Result: UNDERVALUED
Story Continues
MOS Discounted Cash Flow as at Oct 2025
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Mosaic is undervalued by 12.9%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover more undervalued stocks.
The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is widely used for valuing profitable companies like Mosaic because it captures how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of earnings. It reflects both a company’s earnings potential and what the market expects for its future growth, while also accounting for risks and the broader industry climate.
Generally, a higher PE ratio can be justified if investors anticipate strong future growth or if the company operates with lower risks. Conversely, companies in riskier or slower-growing sectors often deserve a lower PE. For Mosaic, the current PE ratio stands at 9.9x, which is notably lower than the Chemicals industry average of 25.9x and the peer average of 29.9x. This suggests the market may be assigning less optimistic growth prospects or more risk to Mosaic compared to its competitors.
Simply Wall St’s proprietary “Fair Ratio” for Mosaic is 16.6x. Unlike a simple peer or industry comparison, the Fair Ratio is customized for a company’s specific profile, factoring in its growth outlook, profit margins, risks, industry context, and size. This provides a more accurate benchmark for what the PE should be, rather than relying solely on broad averages.
With Mosaic trading at a PE of 9.9x compared to its Fair Ratio of 16.6x, the stock appears undervalued from this perspective. The gap reflects that the market may be overlooking Mosaic’s earnings power or factoring in more pessimism than warranted.
Result: UNDERVALUED
NYSE:MOS PE Ratio as at Oct 2025
PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.
Earlier we mentioned there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let’s introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is a simple story you create about a company, combining the numbers with your own perspective on its future, such as the growth you expect in revenue or margins, or the risks you think matter most.
Unlike traditional tools that focus only on snapshots of value, Narratives link Mosaic’s big picture (what you believe is happening in the business or industry) directly to financial forecasts and ultimately to a Fair Value. In this way, every investor’s valuation becomes personal and transparent.
Best of all, Narratives are easy to use and available right now within the Community page on Simply Wall St’s platform, trusted by millions. By comparing Fair Value (from your Narrative) to the current share price, you get a clear signal to help you decide whether now is the time to buy, sell, or hold Mosaic.
Because Narratives update automatically when news or earnings break, you always have the latest view. For example, some Mosaic investors may use Narratives to justify a bullish price target of $49, betting on long-term demand and margin improvement. Others might take a more cautious stance with targets as low as $33, focusing on industry risks and earnings volatility.
Do you think there’s more to the story for Mosaic? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!
NYSE:MOS Community Fair Values as at Oct 2025
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include MOS.
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