Inside: Risers and fallers after Sunday of Week 7, plus key matchups in tonight’s games. Let’s roll.
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A running back for MVP?
The NFL’s most prestigious individual award wasn’t always reserved for the league’s best quarterback. Four of the first five MVP trophies went to running backs, and the winners list includes multiple defenders and even a kicker.
For backs to win the award in today’s game, though, the requirements remain simple (if difficult). They need …
A record-setting season …
… as the best player on a playoff team, while
… no quarterback has a truly standout year.
Those factors applied to every modern-day running back MVP: Marshall Faulk in 2000, Shaun Alexander in 2005, LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006 and Adrian Peterson in 2012.
So far, 2025 seems like a perfect storm for Jonathan Taylor’s MVP candidacy. His latest performance, a 132-yard, three-touchdown day, was a big reason why the Colts beat the Chargers 38-24 in L.A. (full takeaways here). Here’s more on those three factors, in a slightly different order:
1. Wins. Indy is 6-1 and in first place in the AFC. Even more relevant to this debate, Taylor has been the catalyst. Just over half of the Colts’ yards have come from either his rushing (they lead the league in rushing EPA) or play action (they also lead in play-action yardage).
2. Stats. To merit even discussing this, they’d better be great. Peterson had 2,097 rushing yards, the second-best mark of all time. Alexander totaled 1,958 scrimmage yards and 28 touchdowns, while Tomlinson’s 31 scores still stand as the NFL record (he had 2,323 scrimmage yards that year, too).
Taylor? He’s on pace to finish in the same ballpark, with 2,142 scrimmage yards and 27 touchdowns. His 697 rushing yards are 105 more than the next-closest running back, and even more than Faulk, Tomlinson or Peterson had in their MVP seasons at this point.
3. Quarterbacks in general. While BetMGM’s frontrunners for MVP (Patrick Mahomes and Baker Mayfield) are fairly placed, the former’s Chiefs are just 4-3, and the latter’s number of turnover-worthy throws makes interception regression likely. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, meanwhile, lead teams performing below expectations.
Taylor is at least the RB frontrunner for MVP, but Christian McCaffrey deserves to be in the mix. Last night, CMC ran for 129 yards and two touchdowns and also caught seven passes for 72 yards, dragging the 49ers to a 5-2 record via a 20-10 win against Atlanta.
Still, even if Taylor and McCaffrey continue their torrid pace, it’ll be difficult to overcome Mahomes — both in the MVP race and in the playoffs. Here he comes now:
Other Week 7 movers
📈 Mahomes. Despite sitting for the entire fourth quarter of their 31-0 win against Las Vegas, Mahomes had 286 passing yards and three touchdown passes.
He also converted a fourth-and-1 after a profanity-laden acting job, and welcomed back Rashee Rice with the type of no-look pass that should factor into MVP voting.
📈 Exciting Giants games. New York led 26-8 with under six minutes remaining, but Denver’s 33-point fourth quarter broke a longstanding streak. While explaining the disastrous loss, Dan Duggan pointed out a 🤯 stat:
💬 “There had been 1,602 consecutive wins by teams leading by 18 points with six minutes remaining, according to the CBS broadcast.”
Fair to again question New York’s coaching staff, particularly defensive coordinator Shane Bowen. The search should also be underway to replace New York kicker Jude McAtamney, who missed two costly extra points in the one-point loss.
📈 Concerns about Jayden Daniels. Worries are inevitable after a 44-22 blowout loss to the Cowboys, but a hamstring injury to their franchise quarterback tops the list. Coach Dan Quinn said Daniels wanted to return to the game, but was ruled out and awaits an MRI today.
My impatient nature forced me to send videos of Daniels’ injury to my friend and sports chiropractor, Dr. Evan Kirkelos, who offered some optimism:
💬 “It just seems like a general knee strain to me, and him walking into the locker room without a limp should rule out the meniscus. If the MRI rules it out, and it’s instead a low grade sprain/strain, the only way Daniels would miss next week is if the team is extremely cautious.”
Still, after the second-year QB’s second injury this season (and with memories of Robert Griffin III firmly implanted in Washington), you can’t blame The Athletic’s David Aldridge for suggesting that level of caution with Daniels.
The problem? Losses over the next three weeks could crush the postseason odds for the 3-4 Commanders, as our Playoff Simulator illustrates:
📉 Futures in Miami. After Tua Tagovailoa’s three-interception, three-fumble day in a rainy 31-6 loss to the Browns, Miami’s outs look like this, with figures per OverTheCap:
Cut Tagovailoa today: $137.6 million in dead money, an untenable option.
Cut him this offseason: Pay him $54 million guaranteed in 2026 and have $99.2 million in dead money on the books.
Cut him after 2026: He has zero guaranteed money in 2027, and would leave the Dolphins with just $31.8 million in dead money.
The Dolphins seem stuck with this QB for 2026, though Mike Sando shared another option in his Pick Six column: Trade him and an early draft pick to incentivize another team to take on the salary. The Jets and Raiders might be interested.
What Dianna’s Hearing: ‘Man of the people’
You don’t need to be a Super Bowl-winning GM like Jason Licht to know Baker Mayfield is a GUY. But it was less obvious two years ago.
Licht bet on Baker when the rest of the league had folded. He still laughs, thinking about the night the Bucs agreed to terms with Mayfield after Tom Brady retired.
“The day we signed him, I went to my favorite dive bar to get wings. I called him from there. Looking back, it feels like the perfect setting — because I’ve always said he’s a man of the people, not about flash.”
Monday night against the Lions, Mayfield can make the latest statement in his MVP campaign. And I’m told any extension talks will happen after the season, giving Mayfield space to focus on his third year in Tampa — and potentially add some more zeroes to a new contract.
Back to you, Jacob.
Tonight’s marquee matchups
Whenever two top quarterbacks take the field, we’re always quick to assert that they are “matched up.” We were often sold Peyton Manning vs. Brady. That’s never truly the case, as we all know.
So, unless Mayfield gets back in his defensive lineman stance, let’s look at the true matchups tonight. Buccaneers-Lions begins at 7 p.m. ET …
Jared Goff vs. Buccaneers pass rush. Detroit’s reshuffled offensive line has struggled with pass protection, particularly in the interior, and is without starting left tackle Taylor Decker. Tampa Bay gets more pressure than all but four teams, thanks in part to Todd Bowles’ blitz-heavy scheme.
Mayfield vs. Detroit’s secondary. The Buccaneers’ injured receiver room should at least get back Mike Evans, and I’d expect Mayfield to lean on his top receiver against an even more shorthanded Lions secondary, one without three starting corners and their top two safeties.
… followed by Texans-Seahawks at 10 p.m. Both games are on ESPN.
C.J. Stroud vs. Seahawks pass rush. Seattle coach Mike Macdonald has schemed brilliance from his talented defensive line, which allows Seattle to bring pressure despite rarely blitzing. They should feast against the Texans’ line, one of the league’s worst units (though it’s overachieved in pass protection).
Sam Darnold vs. Texans pressure. Houston has pressured quarterbacks at the league’s fourth-highest rate, but don’t fret for Darnold. He has the third-best off-target throw percentage against pressure (missing just 7.1 percent) and has taken the third-fewest sacks when pressured.
Extra Points
☑️ Confident. Seahawks’ Jaxon Smith-Njigba isn’t surprised by his success: “Ever since I stepped on the field, I just knew I was a great.” The Athletic’s Michael-Shawn Dugar wrote a must-read feature on Seattle’s ascending, confident superstar, who is quietly on pace to break Calvin Johnson’s single-season receiving yards record.
💪 Dominant. A career-best three sacks for Micah Parsons was a reminder of why he’s double-teamed so often. “I tell coach all the time, ‘If I got a 1-on-1, I like myself eight out of 10 times,’” said Parsons, who played a crucial role in a win that got Green Bay to 4-1-1.
📓 Learning. Zak Keefer explains what Week 7 taught him, from the Colts’ MVP-level running back to the 49ers’ surprise savior, Mac Jones.
▶️ Friday’s most-clicked: PFF owner Cris Collinsworth pushed back on criticism of his platform’s player grades: “Thanks for the attention.”
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