The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) has issued a stark warning ahead of the delayed 2026 COLA announcement, claiming that seniors have already lost thousands in benefits and that “it’s only going to get worse” if Congress doesn’t act.

Social Security Warning Issued Over COLA: Overview

Agency/GroupThe Senior Citizens League (TSCL)IssueInaccurate COLA calculations using CPI-WProposed FixReplace CPI-W with CPI-E (Consumer Price Index for the Elderly)Average Loss (1999–2024 Retirees)$5,000 – $12,000 in lifetime benefitsAffected Beneficiaries70 million + Social Security recipientsForecasted COLA 20262.7 % – 2.9 % (subject to CPI-W data release)COLA Announcement DateOctober 24, 2025 (delayed due to shutdown)

TSCL Raises Alarm: COLA Calculations ‘Failing Seniors’

As the government shutdown delays the 2026 Social Security Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) announcement, the Senior Citizens League (TSCL) has issued a major warning: the way the government measures inflation is costing retirees thousands.

TSCL’s analysis shows that the average senior who retired in 1999 has lost nearly $5,000 in lifetime benefits because the COLA uses the CPI-W, which tracks inflation for urban wage earners—not retirees.

“If Congress continues to pass the buck on switching to the CPI-E, the problem is only going to get worse,” said Shannon Benton, Executive Director of TSCL. “Current retirees’ Social Security benefits will fall further behind inflation, while future retirees will start from the back.”

The CPI-W vs. CPI-E Debate Explained

What Is CPI-W?

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) measures inflation based on the spending habits of working Americans living in cities.

What Is CPI-E?

The Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E) focuses on seniors, weighting costs like health care, prescription drugs, and housing more heavily — categories that rise faster than average inflation.

Index TypeMain FocusWho It RepresentsAvg. Inflation DifferenceCPI-WWorking-age urban consumersUrban wage earners & clerical workersBaselineCPI-ERetired consumersAmericans 62 ++ 0.1 percentage point higher

Over the past 25 years, CPI-E has exceeded CPI-W 69 % of the time, meaning retirees’ real costs have risen faster than the measure used for their benefit adjustments.

How Much Seniors Have Lost Because of CPI-W?

TSCL estimates that using the CPI-W instead of CPI-E has created a compounding loss in lifetime benefits:

Retirement YearEstimated Benefit Loss (1999 – 2024)1999 Retiree$ 4,9802014 Retiree$ 8,0002024 Retiree$ 12,000

Each year that Congress fails to update the formula, the gap widens further — eroding retirees’ purchasing power for essentials like housing and healthcare.

Delayed COLA 2026 Announcement

The Social Security Administration (SSA) typically announces the next year’s COLA around October 15, but this year’s government shutdown has pushed the release to October 24, 2025. The delay occurred because the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) postponed the September CPI-W data, a critical component in the COLA formula.

Despite the delay, the SSA confirmed that benefits will still increase in January 2026 once the final number is published.

“The COLA delay is administrative, not financial,” an SSA official stated.
“All beneficiaries will receive their adjusted payments on schedule.”

Projected 2026 COLA and Inflation Outlook

Early data suggest a modest increase in benefits for 2026. TSCL forecasts a COLA between 2.7 % and 2.9 %, influenced by tariffs introduced by the Trump administration, which have nudged inflation upward.

YearCOLA %Economic Context20238.7 %Post-pandemic inflation spike20243.2 %Moderating prices20252.5 %Stable inflation2026 (Est.)2.7 % – 2.9 %Tariffs & supply-cost rebound

However, experts warn that even a higher COLA may fail to match rising costs if Medicare premiums and utility rates keep climbing.

“When the COLA doesn’t reflect real expenses, retirees lose thousands over time,”
said Kevin Thompson, CEO of 9i Capital Group. “That’s money that could’ve gone toward healthcare and housing.”

Why the CPI-E Would Better Protect Seniors?

Switching to the CPI-E would tie Social Security increases more directly to seniors’ real-world spending patterns.

“The CPI-E already exists; Congress just refuses to use it,” Benton emphasized. “It’s not about creating a new formula — it’s about fairness.”

Economists agree that CPI-E adjustments could slightly raise annual COLAs — about 0.1 % per year — translating to thousands more in lifetime benefits for retirees.

Broader Impact on America’s Aging Workforce

Experts caution that inadequate COLA adjustments could ripple beyond seniors’ finances, affecting the labor market itself.

“Delaying a decision on the 2026 COLA and using the wrong index could force older adults to stay in the workforce longer,” said Rachel Shaw, HR executive at Rachel Shaw Inc. “That pushes costs onto employers through higher workers’-comp claims, more sick leave, and higher private disability claims.”

Younger workers may also face tighter job markets as seniors take part-time positions traditionally held by new entrants, she added.

Reform Efforts: What Congress Has (and Hasn’t) Done

Bills like the Social Security Expansion Act (2025) and Social Security 2100 Act (2023) both proposed using CPI-E, but neither gained traction in Congress.

Lawmakers cite the funding shortfall of the Social Security trust fund — projected to deplete around 2034 — as a major barrier.

“The bigger issue is overall Social Security reform,” said Kevin Thompson. “The COLA formula won’t change soon because lawmakers can’t afford to increase payouts without new revenue. What’s coming instead could be benefit cuts for those who can least afford them.”

Key Takeaways

TopicDetailsMain ConcernCOLA uses CPI-W instead of CPI-E — hurting retireesLoss in Benefits$ 5 k – $ 12 k over a lifetime (1999–2024 retirees)COLA 2026 Estimate2.7 % – 2.9 % increase expected Oct 24 announcementRoot CauseCPI-W ignores rising senior costs (health care & housing)Proposed FixSwitch to CPI-E for fairer adjustmentsLegislation StatusReform bills stalled in Congress

What Experts Are Saying?

Shannon Benton (TSCL Director):
“If Congress doesn’t fix the formula, this problem will get worse and worse. Every year seniors lose more ground to inflation.”

Kevin Thompson (9i Capital Group):
“The CPI-E would offer a small boost — not a windfall — but it better reflects real life for those on fixed incomes.”

Alex Beene (University of Tennessee):
“Switching to CPI-E would mean thousands more for seniors, but political gridlock makes any change unlikely soon.”

The Bottom Line

The Senior Citizens League’s warning is clear: if Congress continues using CPI-W to calculate COLA, retirees will keep falling behind.

While a 2.7 % – 2.9 % COLA for 2026 is expected later this month, it won’t reverse years of lost buying power. With Social Security reform stalled and the trust fund’s future uncertain, the gap between inflation and reality for America’s seniors is indeed “only going to get worse.”