Could Matchday 9 prove
to be a defining weekend in the Premier
League title race when we look back in May? Arsenal certainly
made the most of it, according to the Opta
supercomputer.
As far as weekends go, it was a pretty good one for Arsenal.
Mikel Arteta’s side kept yet another clean sheet and earned three
more points,
beating a potentially awkward opponent in Crystal Palace 1-0 at the
Emirates.
That result may have been expected, but what happened elsewhere
in the division across Matchday 9 was slightly more
eyebrow-raising.
Both of Arsenal’s direct title rivals slipped up.
Liverpool’s torrid run continued with a 3-2 defeat away at
Brentford, before
Manchester City were beaten 1-0 at Aston Villa.
Those results leave Arsenal four points clear at the top of the
table ahead of Bournemouth in second, with Tottenham and Sunderland
(both on 17 points) rounding out the top four.
The Gunners now hold a six-point lead over City and a
seven-point cushion over Liverpool, the two sides who still remain
their most credible challengers, even with their early-season
hiccups.
Unsurprisingly, those results led to a major swing in the Opta
supercomputer’s title probabilities. Before the weekend, Arsenal
were already firm favourites at 53.8%, ahead of Manchester City
(18.5%) and Liverpool (17.4%).
But with Arteta’s side the only one of the three to claim any
points, their title chances leapt up to 67.3%. City (12.4%) and
Liverpool (11.0%) both slipped further back, while Chelsea – down
from 4.5% to just 1.7% – were also downgraded in the model after
they lost at home to Sunderland.
Things are looking rosy for Arsenal, who are now in a strong
position to win their first Premier League title in 21 years.
Their defensive record continues to be extraordinary. Ahead of
the Palace game,
we noted they were on pace to break Chelsea’s record of conceding
just 15 goals in a season. Another clean sheet has only
increased that likelihood, with Arsenal now on track to concede
only 12.6 goals across the campaign.
The league leaders have faced the fewest shots (72), the fewest
shots on target (19), the lowest xG (5.3) and conceded the fewest
goals (3) in the Premier League this season. It’s the fewest
goals they’ve conceded after nine Premier League matches, and the
first time they’ve kept six clean sheets in their opening nine
games.
What’s more, in the current Premier League tactical cycle, where
set-pieces have become increasingly important, Arsenal remain kings
in that department.
With Liverpool in crisis and City’s form inconsistent,
everything seems to be aligning for Arteta.
So, what can history tell us from here? Opta’s supercomputer
title database only goes back to 2022-23, but looking back suggests
Arsenal are in a strong position.
Across the last three full seasons, only once has a team held a
title probability higher than 67% from this point and failed to win
the league. That came in November 2024, when City – with 23 points
from nine games and one point ahead of Liverpool – were rated as
75.3% favourites, but ultimately fell short.
On every other occasion a team’s forecast has climbed above 67%
(which is what Arsenal’s is now), they’ve gone on to lift the
trophy.
Arteta, though, will not allow complacency to creep in. Not only
because City’s implosion from 2024-25 serves as a warning, but also
because Arsenal have been here before and ended up empty-handed.
This is the seventh time they’ve taken 22 points or more from their
opening nine Premier League games of a season. Only once in the
previous six occasions have they then gone on to win the title
(2003-04, when they had 23 points after nine games).
They’ve faltered from strong starts in recent memory, too. They
led after nine games in 2022-23 with 24 points and finished second,
while they were joint-top in 2023-24 with 21 points before again
finishing as runners-up.
But Arsenal appear better equipped this time. The squad is
deeper and it says a lot that William Saliba’s half-time withdrawal
against Palace has not been met with the outcry it would have
received a few years ago. The team is set up to absorb such
setbacks.
If they can maintain this level of control and consistency,
Matchday 9 may be the moment we look back on as the beginning of
the end of Arsenal’s long wait for another Premier League
title.
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