ARLINGTON, VA — After a high-scoring 2024-25 season, the Capitals have been relatively quiet on the scoreboard this fall. The Capitals rank 26th in the league in average goals per game after scoring just 27 times in their first 10 contests, 17 goals fewer than they’d had at the same point last season.

Head coach Spencer Carbery told reporters on Thursday that he’d done a dive into the Caps’ offensive analytics as he looked for ways to increase total scoring. He argued that the team’s larger processes were successful in setting up valuable opportunities; instead, the trouble came from players’ inability to convert.

“Yeah, it’s something that we’ve talked a lot about,” Carbery said. “The underlying numbers are there. The film’s there. We’re doing a lot of good things. I think there’s some things that we could do a little bit better job of while we work ourselves through a little bit of guys not finishing at a high rate. I think that’s probably the biggest difference right now.

“We’re not finishing at a high rate, so what does that mean? That means when we get in on a two-on-one or a breakaway right now, last year those were going in the net a lot for a lot of different guys. For the first ten games (this season), it hasn’t gone in a lot for a lot of guys. Okay, no problem. You can still win games and still score goals without finishing at a high rate”

Carbery, who’s spoken in the past about benefitting from an analytic perspective, also looked into the team’s middling success at getting time in the offensive zone, though his research into the numbers suggested that was less of an issue than he’d first expected.

“Zone time is something we’re not very — I don’t want to say strong — but it’s not a strong suit of our group,” he said. “Because we have a couple lines that it’s more difficult for them to move around and skate and cut back and hold on to pucks. We, in my time here, and I’ve dove into it a lot, because you want to spend as much time in the offensive zone as you can. And we’re generally around the middle of the pack in that stat. It’s always caught me off guard.

“Last year especially, we’re one of the top offensive expected goal teams in the league, but our O-zone time is middle of the pack. Why is that? So then when you dive into it, it’s just a little bit more challenging for us to move around. It’s just not how we’re built a little bit. It is something that I pay attention to, but I don’t get overly concerned with us being in the top five or top three zone time.”

Some of the scoring decrease from 2024-25 was to be expected: that Capitals group had an impressive 14.4 shooting percentage through 10 games, ending the year first in the NHL with 12.2%. This season, they rank 27th in the NHL with just 9.3% of shots hitting paydirt.

The team’s analytics support Carbery’s assertion that players are managing to generate chances, even if they aren’t making it to the back of the net. Per Natural Stat Trick, Washington is averaging a league-leading 3.84 expected goals per game, more than a full goal per game above its actual scoring.

Other extenuating factors have also played a role. Washington’s special teams have struggled mightily to begin the year, ranking 20th in power play percentage (18.8%) and 27th in penalty kill percentage (67.9%). The Caps’ top two centers, Dylan Strome and Pierre-Luc Dubois, have both already lost time to injury. And Alex Ovechkin, like many of his teammates, has had a slow start with just two goals so far.

Though last year’s Capitals racked up goals at a rapid-fire pace, Carbery got experience dealing with a low-scoring team in his debut season in DC, where the Caps ranked fourth-worst in the NHL with an average of just 2.63 per night. Carbery made light of that early dry spell on Thursday when questioned about the team’s scoring woes compared to 2024-25.

“Well, I’d ask you, what year are you referring to? My first year here or my second year?” he asked, grinning. When reassured the question wasn’t about the 2023-24 campaign, he quipped, “Happy thoughts. Happy thoughts.”

The current Capitals’ team, unlike the 2023-24 squad, has largely been able to compensate for low scoring with strong defense, limiting opponents to a league-leading average of 2.20 goals per game. But while defense has remained steady and the underlying numbers suggest offense could be on the way, Carbery still believes the group has some things to work on to regain the ability to convert on chances they showed last year.

“We’re missing a little bit of how we were able to score a little bit more often last year, and we’ve looked at it as a staff,” Carbery said. “We’re dialing in. We’re working on it and addressing it.”