We’re around two weeks into the new NBA season.
So what better time to make some unnecessarily early takeaways from what we’ve seen so far?
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Below we’ve dived into some bold predictions, hot takes and general overreactions for the marathon season ahead.
So yes, it’s early days. But …
THUNDER ARE STILL KINGS OF THE NBA
Nothing we didn’t know already.
The reigning champions are still the team to beat.
OKC has been without its second-best player, Jalen Williams, yet the defensive juggernaut is still coasting with an NBA-best 6-0.
The offence has been a little clunky and it took them double overtime to win their first two games over Houston and Indiana.
But that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander guy goes alright.
Plus Chet Holmgren has taken his game to another level, averaging career highs in points (23), rebounds (10.3) and 3-point percentage (41.7).
That’s the scary thing about the Thunder. There’s still so much upside across the board, with one of the youngest rosters in the NBA after last season posting the second-best net rating in NBA history — second only to the 1995/96 Chicago Bulls.
And after winning 68 games last season — a season Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein both missed a key chunk of — 70 wins is in play for this ball club.
Oh, and general manager Sam Presti has seemingly never missed on a draft pick.
Add Ajay Mitchell, the No. 38 Pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, to Presti’s collection of hits.
Mitchell has slotted into the Thunder’s undermanned rotation seamlessly as yet another option Mark Daigneault can roll out from the deepest roster in the NBA.
Things can change, but OKC is still the clear frontrunner for the NBA championship. And it’s a group built of the right stuff that you sense won’t be complacent with last season’s title, with dynasty potential written all over it.
If they can get back to the NBA Finals, hard to say who their most likely opponent is after several Eastern Conference contenders have started the season slow.
Cairns claim upset win over Tasmania | 00:46
BUT LOOK OUT SHAI AND JOKER — WEMBY IS A LEGIT MVP CONTENDER
Tough to call exactly what San Antonio’s ceiling is this season, despite a hot 5-0 start as one of the most improved teams in the league.
One thing’s clear — Victor Wembanyama has arrived in a massive way in year three.
While Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic should be the rightful favourites for the MVP, Wembanyama is firmly in the conversation. Particularly if the Spurs can push for a top six, or higher seed, in the stacked West.
You can’t take your eyes off the 7-foot-4 French phenom when you’re watching a Spurs game. Which, even when multiple games are on, it’s hard to not to pick them on League Pass.
That’s largely due to Wembanyama, who does one or two things every game you’ve never seen before — from swatting shots from all sorts of impossible angles, to hitting step-back 3-pointers with Steph Curry-like confidence.
His length just makes for unprecedented possibilities on the court. It’s almost like a maxed out MyPlayer on NBA 2K.
That added swagger to go at defences and really believe he’s the biggest alpha on the floor is what’s really taken Wembanyama’s game to another level, averaging 30.2 points, 14.6 rebounds and 4.8 blocks.
His defensive impact specifically is off the charts and his greatest weapon. Wembanyama has near singlehandedly carried San Antonio to the No. 2 defensive rating in the NBA by swatting anything that comes near the paint as the clear frontrunner for Defensive Player of the Year.
At this rate, he might take home a few awards this year. The dude is a cheat code and out of this world good.
NZ Breakers HAMMER Illawarra Hawks | 01:10
AND ROOKIE OF THE YEAR RACE ISN’T AS CLEAR CUT AS WE THOUGHT
We knew it was a strong draft class. Yet No. 1 pick Cooper Flagg was the consensus best player and hottest of hot favouries for Rookie of the Year.
It mightn’t be that clear cut, however.
Flagg hasn’t exactly hit the ground running after being given uncustomary starting point guard duties for the Dallas Mavericks with Kyrie Irving sidelined.
The 18-year old is highly regarded for how well-rounded his game is including his passing abilities. But running an NBA offence is a whole different kettle of fish.
Flagg has averaged 13.4 points, 6.2 rebounds and 2.8 assists on 41 per cent shooting from the field and 26 per cent shooting from downtown for the 2-4 Mavericks.
The young gun hasn’t been a disappointment by any means, but he just isn’t quite hitting the immense expectations placed on him for a team still finding its way and overall identity.
Though you’d be pretty confident Flagg will find his groove eventually and show us all his tricks.
The other piece to this is that there’s been several other impressive rookies. None more so than Philadelphia’s V.J. Edgecombe.
The No. 3 pick has helped power the Sixers to a 4-1 start to the season alongside Tyrese Maxey.
With Joel Embiid being heavily managed and Paul George yet to play a game, Edgecombe had flourished and then some with extra touches.
If you’d never watched the sport before, you wouldn’t know he’s a rookie. He plays with a level of maturity beyond his years.
The 20-year old has averaged 21.2 points, 5.6 rebounds, 5.4 assists and 1.2 steals on 49 per cent shooting from the field and 43 per cent from three.
Sure, you’d think there will be some regression to the mean.
But that’s genuine All-Star numbers helping pace the NBA’s No. 2 best offence and making basketball fun for Philadelphia fans again.
It included a 34-point explosion in Edgecombe’s first game — the most ever by a Sixers rookie – as the clear standout rookie so far.
San Antonio’s Dylan Harper, Charlotte’s Kon Knueppel and Washington’s Tre Johnson have also looked good.
Flagg is still the betting favourite for Rookie of the Year. This is more to say the race isn’t the absolute cakewalk we thought it was going to be.
Rollins’ career high leads Bucks to win | 01:05
PG TO BE PUT ON THE TRADE BLOCK
With VJ Edgecombe’s ascension in mind and Philly on the right path with he and Tyrese Maxey as its main guys, Paul George becomes a fascinating trade watch.
If the Sixers can somehow find a suitor for the 35-year old and his lucrative contract — in the second season of a four-year $211 million ($322m AUD) deal.
Shedding Joel Embiid’s mega salary, which rises to $67 million in its final season in 2028/29, would probably be preferable. But it’s probably near impossible to move at this point, given his injury history.
A team might be able to talk itself into George, however, particularly if he can overcome his own injury woes and produce at a high level for a couple of months.
In terms of other big names on trade watch, Utah’s Lauri Markkanen would be an appealing option for teams and the Finnish forward has replenished a lot of his trade value in a hot start to the season.
Could Boston consider deals for Jaylen Brown or Derek White if their season really goes south? What about Dallas and Anthony Davis with their top-heavy roster? The ‘fire Nico’ chants would reach fever pitch.
Hard to see Phoenix moving Devin Booker given the Suns don’t control their first-round pick this season — or any first-round pick until 2032.
LeBron James likely plays out the season in LA and who knows what’s beyond that. Giannis Antetokounmpo seems happy enough in Milwaukee for now. And there seems to be more tension brewing between Ja Morant and Memphis.
But a lot can change between now and the February deadline.
Reaves sinks buzzer beater! | 01:49
A PLAYER WILL SCORE 80 POINTS. AND WILT’S RECORD MIGHTN’T BE OUT OF REACH
One of the big themes of this season, at least so far, has been the ridiculous scoring rate.
It’s the first time in NBA history there’s been four 50-point games — to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Aaron Gordon, Austin Reaves and Lauri Markkanen — so early in the season.
It includes 16 40-point games in an unprecedented scoring wave.
That’s down on an average of 2.4 40-point games in the first four games of the season, according to Fox Sports (US).
Of course, we’re in a much higher scoring era than ever before with 3-point shooting so rife. But this is on another level entirely.
Free throw rates are through the roof at an average of 26.5 per game — up nearly five from last season.
And eight players are averaging over 30-points per game — up from two last season.
It means we’re due for an 80-point game — a number only reached twice in NBA history by Kobe Bryant and Wilt Chamberlain.
We had two 70-point games last season to Luka Doncic and Joel Embiid after Damian Lillard and Donovan Mitchell also put up 70 points the campaign prior.
But Bryant in 2006 is the last player to put up an 80 burger. And suddenly Chamberlain’s record 100-point record from 1962 doesn’t feel so out of reach.
If any era was to produce a triple-figure game, it’s this. So who could be the contenders to hit the 80-plus mark?
Doncic’s 73 points last season, around a week before he was traded to the Lakers, are the most points a player has scored since Bryant.
You feel like Doncic has more in him as the most likely candidate.
Gilgeous-Alexander and Giannis Antetokounmpo, who leads the NBA in scoring, are capable of monster scoring bursts and spent a lot of time at the free throw line.
Tyrese Maxey ranks second in the league in scoring (35.2) and has been an offensive dynamo.
Nikola Jokic is probably too unselfish.
And on the trajectory Victor Wembanyama is on, it feels like nothing is out of reach for him — literally and figuratively.
Giddey shines for the Bulls AGAIN | 00:31
GIDDEY TO MAKE FIRST ALL-STAR
Josh Giddey is doing special things for the improved Chicago Bulls in a career-best season.
If he can keep it up, a maiden All-Star appearance looms.
The Aussie has been on a tear to begin the season as the driving force for the 5-0 Bulls, which is their best start since the 1996-97 season
Giddey has averaged career highs across the board in points (22), rebounds (8.8), assists (eight), and perhaps most significantly, two 3-pointers on 45.5 per cent shooting.
He has four double-doubles already including scoring a career-high 32 points against the New York Knicks with 10 rebounds and nine assists.
The betting favourite for Most Improved Player of the Year, the 6-foot-7 guard is thriving with the keys to the Bulls’ No. 5 ranked offence now that Zach LaVine is gone and Coby White has been sidelined to start the season.
Fair to say the 23-year old is living up to his newly signed $100 million contract.
Most importantly, he’s playing a leading role on a winning team, which he haven’t really seen him do before.
If the Bulls can push for a playoff spot, it will only boost Giddey’s All-Star chances.
It’s early days, but there’s a buzz in United Center we haven’t seen in some time. And Giddey is a big reason why.
Josh Giddey dazzles in masterful showing | 00:38
BUT DANIELS WON’T AVERAGE THREE STEALS AGAIN
While Giddey is flourishing, fellow Aussie Dyson Daniels hasn’t come out of the gates as hot.
We know he’ll bounce back.
There’s a few things that will normalise, such as his career-low field goal percentage due to rise.
And he had his best game of the season in Atlanta’s most recent win over Indiana, tallying 18 points, nine rebounds, six assists and three steals. He’ll get to do more on offence now with Trae Young sidelined.
But don’t expect the Aussie young gun to average three steals again like he did last year.
That’s not a knock on Daniels — he’s still averaging 2.3 steals through five contests. Three is just a ridiculously high number. Anything over two is already the elite of the elite.
In fact, Daniels’ average of three steals per game last season was the most since Alvin Robertson in 1990-91.
He’ll probably do it again at some point, but two seasons in a row would be crazy.
Bullets claim first home win of season | 00:51
MAGIC’S MASSIVE TRADE OVERPAY LOOKS SHAKY
Speaking of teams that have underwhelmed in the East, the loudest alarm bells surround the 3-4 Orlando Magic.
The record is looking better after they’ve won two in a row.
But this is a team that went chips in by acquiring Desmond Bane for four first-round picks to help provide a much-needed outside scoring boost.
It was widely acknowledged as an overpay, but Bane figured to be the missing piece they solely lacked.
Well, not only have Orlando’s offensive rating and 3-point shooting barely improved, the team has taken a step backwards defensively.
Defence was their absolute backbone last season in a promising season where the Magic pushed for a high seed in the Eastern Conference despite injuries to key stars.
This isn’t to pin the team’s woes on Bane, who’s 3-point shot is way off and he’s struggled to mesh with Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner.
But a team that took a big trade punt to try and take it to the next level is floundering.
And their currently forecasted to be among the top three most expensive rosters over each of the next four seasons.
Banchero, Wagner, Bane and Jalen Suggs are set to make a combined $154 million from next season, which is this year’s entire salary cap, in an era where depth is more important than ever.
Words exchanged between Goulding & Wells | 00:24
BUT THERE’S AN ACTUAL TRADE DISASTER. AND THERE MIGHT BE A FALL GUY
Not that we’re in the business of predicting people to get fired. But there’s already smoke surrounding New Orleans Pelicans coach Willie Green’s future.
The 0-5 Pelicans have disaster potential this season, especially given their bold trade gamble on draft night.
It’s been rough on both ends of the floor, with the second-worst net rating in the entire NBA. Yikes.
And an ever-changing line-up and confusing roster that’s half going for it. Hard to know exactly what the plan is, but Zion Williamson is healthy and they’re still struggling.
Yet they invested in this season by trading their first-round pick to Atlanta to move up the 2025 draft to get Derik Queen. Plus they flipped CJ McCollum’s expiring contract for Jordan Poole and took more money back.
So they don’t own their first-round pick despite currently sitting the lottery mix, and in an absolute worst case scenario, might kiss goodbye the No. 1 selection.
The front office has to take accountability for that. The trade raised eyebrows at the time and is only ageing worse.
But Green might be the immediate fall guy if this team can’t get its season back on track.
Epic fourth quarter comeback in NBL | 01:41
WORST SEASON SINCE ‘TRUST THE PROCESS’ SIXERS? NETS REBUILD COULD GET UGLY
The 0-5 Nets remain the biggest mess in the NBA.
The clear weakest team in the league, they could be in contention to have one of the worst records in NBA history. Or at least recent history.
You might think back to this time last year and how they started OK out of the gates under new coach Jordi Fernández and finished with a respectful 26-56 record.
But the starting line-up at the beginning of last season was Dennis Schroder, Cam Thomas, Cameron Johnson, Dorian Finney-Smith and Ben Simmons.
This year it’s Ben Saraf, Cam Thomas, Terrence Mann, Michael Porter Jr. and Nic Claxton and an influx of rookies across the board.
You sense the general roster overhaul was the front office’s way to ensure they win less games this season to boost their lottery odds. That could be enhanced if the likes of Porter and Thomas sit more games as the campaign progresses.
They were basically too good last year for a team in a rebuild that’s clearly prioritising its long-term future.
So could they be the first team to win 10 or fewer games since the 10-72 Philadelphia 76ers in 2016? Also known as the ‘Trust the Process’ Sixers.
The Charlotte Bobcats went 7-59 in the 2012 shortened season, while Philadelphia’s 9-73 record in 1973 remains the worst ever record in an 82-game season.
It mightn’t be that bad for Brooklyn. But it mightn’t be that much better.
The Nets might be closer to the team with the worst record this decade, the 14-78 Detroit Pistons in 2024. Yes, a team with Cade Cunningham on it.