Our Northern Illinois vs. Toledo prediction expects NIU’s offensive woes to continue, leading to the Under hitting.
Nov 5, 2025 • 15:55 ET
• 4 min read
Photo By – Imagn Images. Toledo Rockets quarterback Tucker Gleason (4) carries the ball.
The Northern Illinois Huskies aim for their second straight win when they visit the Toledo Rockets for a Wednesday night MAC matchup.
However, NIU’s offense has been quiet all season, and that’s a key factor in why I’m backing the Under in my Northern Illinois vs. Toledo predictions and college football picks below.
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Northern Illinois vs Toledo prediction
Northern Illinois vs Toledo best bet: Under 42.5 (-110)
There have been few FBS teams that have been less productive on offense this year than the Northern Illinois Huskies. The Huskies rank 133rd in yards per play, 136th in yards per passing attempt, and 134th in scoring at just 13.4 ppg.
It’s not as though the Huskies have been playing a world-class schedule, either. Sure, you can excuse nine points against Maryland and 10 against Mississippi State as simply being outclassed against power conference foes, but Northern Illinois hasn’t scored more than 21 points against any opponent this year, including scoring just 19 against Holy Cross.
The Huskies have stayed in games by playing slow — they rank 127th in FBS in averaging just 61.7 players per game — and by hanging tough defensively, allowing only 22.1 ppg, but even that won’t be enough against the Toledo Rockets, who have been outstanding defensively, giving up just 4.0 yards per play, the fourth-best mark in the country.
Both defenses should shine on Wednesday, and it’s hard to see how Northern Illinois will be able to move the ball much against the Rockets at all. In a slow, grinding slog of a game, the Under is my bet.
Northern Illinois vs Toledo same-game parlay
While a spread of more than 14 points is always a bit scary, the Rockets are clearly the better team, and I expect them to cover at home. Toledo’s defense has been particularly stingy against the running game, which should put a stop to Telly Johnson’s recent run of big games for the Huskies.
Northern Illinois vs Toledo SGP
Under 42.5
Toledo -14.5
Telly Johnson Under 68.5 rushing yards
Our deep-ball SGP: Ready for takeoff
Tucker Gleason has gone Over this total in each of his last four games and is a good bet to do so again against a mediocre Northern Illinois defense.
Northern Illinois vs Toledo SGP
Under 42.5
Toledo -14.5
Telly Johnson Under 68.5 rushing yards
Tucker Gleason Over 229.5 passing yards
Northern Illinois vs Toledo game predictions
Northern Illinois vs Toledo moneyline prediction
There’s not much value here, but this is a mismatch; even if Northern Illinois slows the Rockets on defense, there’s no way that offense will score enough to win.
Northern Illinois vs Toledo spread prediction
Toledo has been by far the better team this year, and could come close to shutting out the Huskies, which should be enough to cover the spread at home.
Northern Illinois vs Toledo Over/Under prediction
Northern Illinois plays slow, doesn’t score, and is fairly effective on defense — all of which are pushing me towards the Under in this one.
Northern Illinois vs Toledo odds
Spread: Northern Illinois +14.5 | Toledo -14.5
Moneyline: Northern Illinois +500 | Toledo -700
Over/Under: Over 42.5 | Under 42.5
Northern Illinois vs Toledo trend to know
Northern Illinois is 6-2 to the Under this season. Find more college football betting trends for Northern Illinois vs Toledo.
How to watch Northern Illinois vs Toledo
Location
Glass Bowl, Toledo, OH
Date
Wednesday, November 5, 2025
Kickoff
7:00 p.m. ET
TV
ESPN2
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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