With free agency now underway in Major League Baseball, the Texas Rangers can start making moves to improve their roster for 2026.
Per their president of baseball operations Chris Young, there are factors that will influence who the roster is build. He’s used the words “younger” and “cutting payroll” to describe what could happen this offseason. Yes, one trusted site connected the Rangers to a Top 10 free agent with a long-term deal.
MLB Trade Rumors considers Cody Bellinger to be the No. 8 free agent. The outfielder and first baseman was projected to receive a five-year, $140 million deal that would have an average annual value of $28 million. One of MLBTR’s four analysts predicted the Rangers would sign him but didn’t offer context. That certainly isn’t cutting payroll.
So, in the absence of analysis, why and how could the Rangers do this?
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There was a time Bellinger’s career looked done. The Los Angeles Dodgers non-tendered the former NL rookie of the year and MVP after the 2022 season in which he slashed .210/.265/.389 with 19 home runs and 58 RBI. Injuries played a key role. But in two seasons with the Cubs and one with the Yankees he’s resurrected his career — and his long-term free agency stock.
In those three seasons he’s slashed .281/.338/.477 with 73 home runs and 273 RBI. He finished in the Top 10 in NL MVP voting in 2023 and won a Silver Slugger. The 30-year-old is back to being the star he was early in his career in Los Angeles.
That’s the why. His bat is back. Additionally, his left-handed swing would have an inviting landing spot in right field in Globe Life Field. He also gives the Rangers position flex, as he can play outfield, first base and DH. He’s also played at least 130 games in each of the last four seasons. The president injuries issues appear to be behind him.
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That’s the hard part. Young made it clear in October that the mandate is to cut payroll. The Rangers have a projected $149.7 million in veteran payroll spread among six players for 2026, per Spotrac. From there, the site projects the Rangers will land at approximately $191.9 million based on arbitration and pre-arbitration players. That’s if the Rangers do nothing else.
At a $28 million average annual value, the Rangers would have to trim payroll to make room for him. Some potential options:
Non-tender outfielder Adolis Garcia and catcher Jonah Heim for arbitration. That would save a projected $18 million. Trade first baseman Jake Burger, who is arbitration-eligible, and shed his projected $3.5 million. Sign Bellinger, absorb the remaining $7.5 million and make him the first baseman.
Trade Marcus Semien, who is due $25 million in 2026 and has three years remaining on his deal. Trade Burger. Take that $28 million, sign Bellinger and put him at first. Allow Josh Smith, Ezequiel Duran and Cody Freeman to compete for second base.
Find a taker for Joc Pederson’s $18.5 million option. Non-tender Garcia and Heim. Trade Burger. Save approximately $40 million. Sign Bellinger, put him at first base and pocket the rest.
Those are just three options. But it’s clear the Rangers would have make multiple moves to sign a player like Bellinger, who is at the top of the market and has the credentials to demand a high-dollar contract. It seems somewhat counter-intuitive, given that Bellinger is 30 and a five-year deal would take him to his age 35 season.
But, if the Rangers combined a pursuit of Bellinger with an opportunity to cut cost, it can work. The why is clear. He would make the Rangers’ offense better. The how is much more complicated and leads on to believe that connecting the Rangers to Bellinger feel more like a pipe dream than realistic.