The Capitals are better analytically this season than they were during the 2024-25 campaign, but aren’t winning games: ‘It really tests us as coaches to stay with our process’

The Washington Capitals are just 7-7-1 to start the 2025-26 season. After running roughshod over the rest of the NHL to a 51-22-9 record last season, the Capitals, with a relatively unchanged roster, currently sit in nearly the exact opposite spot 15 games into their campaign — three points out of a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.

At this same stage of the season a year ago, the Capitals were 10-4-1 and five points ahead of the teams vying for the East’s wild card spots. Although their position in the standings has been reversed, the club is actually performing better analytically at five-on-five this season than they did during their strong start to the 2024-25 season.

Year
Record
CF%
xGF%
SCF%
HDCF%

2024-25
10-4-1
50.7
55.1
54.5
55.8

2025-26
7-7-1
55.4 (+4.7)
58.0 (+2.9)
57.5 (+3.0)
59.1 (+3.3)

Head coach Spencer Carbery spoke about the mental hurdles of balancing his team’s performance process-wise with their inability to finish and secure standings points after practice on Monday afternoon.

“Yeah, it’s really challenging because, as you know, in this business, there’s not a lot of moral victories, and when you don’t get two points, it really doesn’t matter how it looked,” Carbery said. “You have an L in the column that matters the most. It really tests us as coaches to really stay with our process.”

Among all teams in the league five-on-five, the Capitals rank third in shot attempt percentage, second in expected goals for percentage, second in scoring chance for percentage, and third in high danger chance for percentage. However, their .500 point percentage ranks just tied for 22nd in the NHL with six other teams.

The two largest issues remain incredibly clear to the team’s coaching staff and all outside observers: the Capitals have not been able to finish their chances, and they are struggling on special teams worse than any other team in the league.

As of November 9, the Capitals have scored 10.1 fewer goals than expected, which is the 29th best conversion rate in the league. In layperson’s terms, they’re getting great looks in dangerous areas on the ice, but have just been unable to put the puck in the back of the net.

In tandem with those shooting woes comes their inability to create chances while up a man and prevent chances while down a man. Heading into Tuesday night’s game against the Carolina Hurricanes, the Capitals have the fifth-worst power play and the sixth-worst penalty kill in the NHL.

The Capitals have converted on just seven of their 47 chances with a man advantage and have allowed two shorthanded goals against. On the flip side, they have allowed 13 power-play goals on 46 opposing power-play attempts and have yet to score a shorthanded goal of their own.

While the season is still young, Carbery is choosing to remain positive about the things his team is doing well, while simultaneously hoping their luck turns around with the factors limiting their success in the standings.

“Over time, things will shift, and hopefully, pucks will start to go in, and we’ll be rewarded, and we’ll get a few bounces, and special teams will flip and even itself out, and our shooting percentage will even itself out,” Carbery said. “Then you would hope that the wins and the points in the standings column come.

“But it is trying because guys want results, and you want to win hockey games. And when you don’t, guys are not happy with the way things are going, staff and players included. So it’s on us as coaches to point out the things that we continue to be strong at five-on-five and reiterate those and continue to do those things. And maybe take them to even another level and continue to work and be hungry to turn our tides of luck. But yeah, we’re trying to stay positive as we go through.”

The Capitals do not have an easy schedule for the rest of November, as nine of the 11 teams they face off against were playoff teams last year.

To turn things around, they’ll need to start with wins on the road against the Hurricanes and Florida Panthers this week. They have not beaten the Hurricanes on the road since December 17, 2023, losing in five straight outings at Lenovo Center. Similarly, the Capitals have lost six of their last seven against the Panthers at Amerant Bank Arena.