On one hand, it would make sense for the Minnesota Twins to continue the teardown they started at the trade deadline and make the best deals they can for right-handers Joe Ryan and Pablo López.
Then again, the Pohlad ownership has left fans alienated. The team just hired a new manager, Derek Shelton. And in the ever-winnable AL Central, who’s to say the Twins couldn’t compete if they built around Ryan, López and center fielder Byron Buxton?
The Twins aren’t the Colorado Rockies, even after trading their entire bullpen at the deadline. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey has been successful finding contributors at bargain prices — infielder Donovan Solano and outfielder Michael A. Taylor in 2023, first baseman Carlos Santana in ‘24, outfielder Harrison Bader and reliever Danny Coulombe in ‘25. Given the chance, perhaps he could build a contender on a modest budget again.
Per Fangraphs, the Twins’ estimated payroll for 2026 stands at $95.6 million. The combined salaries for the players on their roster, however, is $85.6 million, because the Twins are contributing $10 million of Carlos Correa’s salary to the Houston Astros. As recently as 2023, the Twins’ Opening Day payroll was $153.7 million.
In August, the Pohlad family took on two minority investors after failing to find a buyer at their believed asking price of $1.7 billion. Pohlad and sources familiar with the sale said the investment would be used to pay down more than $425 million in debt. Putting some of that money back into the team would be a show of faith not to Shelton, but also the fans. Twins home attendance dropped from 1.95 million in 2024 to 1.77 million in 2025, the sixth-largest decline in the sport.
Ownership has yet to give the front office a clear direction on the 2026 payroll, according to sources briefed on the Twins’ situation. Whatever the number turns out to be, the Twins almost certainly will proceed like most teams, and decline to announce their intentions. Their actions, though, will be telling.
López, who made only 14 starts last season due to shoulder and forearm injuries, is due $21.75 million in each of the next two seasons. Ryan projects to earn nearly $6 million in arbitration next season, with one year of arbitration remaining after that. The return for him, in particular, could be significant.
Unless, of course, the Twins want to compete.
Which way Texas?
The Texas Rangers are another team with a new manager, Skip Schumaker, and another team that is not entirely sure of its direction.
The team seems virtually certain to cut payroll. The amount might depend upon whether the Rangers pay the luxury tax for the third straight season, resulting in a 50 percent penalty on every dollar they spent over the $241 million threshold.
Baseball Prospectus projected the Rangers’ final luxury-tax payroll to be $238 million. Major League Baseball, however, has not yet released the final numbers. The Rangers paid $1.8 million in tax in ’23, $10.8 million in ’24.
Whatever the outcome, a non-tender of outfielder Adolis Garcia (projected $12.1 million salary in arbitration, per MLB Trade Rumors) or catcher Jonah Heim ($6 million) appears likely as the Rangers seek the flexibility to build a more complete roster.
The Rangers almost certainly will not trade shortstop Corey Seager or right-handers Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi. Any team willing to take declining second baseman Marcus Semien almost certainly would require the Rangers to pay a chunk of the $72 million he is owed over the next three seasons, or accept a similarly inflated contract in return. Semien, 35, lacks a no-trade clause.
Coming off a .500 season, the Rangers want to add a back-end starting pitcher, bullpen help and a right-handed hitting outfielder. If they non-tender Heim, they also would look to add another catcher to pair with Kyle Higashioka.
The deal with Fairbanks
The Tampa Bay Rays traded numerous players at the past two deadlines, from outfielder Randy Arozarena, third baseman Isaac Paredes and reliever Jason Adam in 2024 to righty Taj Bradley, infielder José Caballero and catcher Danny Jansen in 2025.
Yet, for all their activity, the Rays never parted with closer Pete Fairbanks. It’s not that they were terribly attached to him. They just could never get the return they wanted, according to sources briefed on their discussions.
The difficulty in trading Fairbanks helps explain why the Rays declined his $11 million club option. Their other choice was to exercise it, carry him into the offseason and attempt to move him after the top free-agent relievers came off the board.
Fairbanks has a 2.98 ERA in 267 games over seven seasons with the Rays. (Darren Yamashita / Imagn Images)
The Rays, before making Fairbanks a free agent, found that few teams are willing to take on a salary that high for a reliever this early in the offseason. The Baltimore Orioles were an exception, re-acquiring Andrew Kittredge last Wednesday knowing they would exercise his $9 million option.
For the Rays, getting stuck with Fairbanks at $11 million if they again failed to move him later in the offseason would have been an unacceptable outcome. Even under new ownership, the team is expected to continue operating on a limited budget.
Fairbanks, who turns 32 next month, had an expected ERA last season in the top 11 percent of the sport. He ranks among the top four in Rays history in saves, strikeouts and appearances. But while he avoided the IL last season, he has a lengthy injury history, including Raynaud’s syndrome, which disrupts the blood flow to his fingers and affects his grip on the ball in cold weather.
Some teams that play outdoors in cooler climates might consider him a risk, especially if they are intent on playing in October. But even in a free-agent market that includes closers Edwin DÃaz, Devin Williams and Robert Suárez, Fairbanks should attract considerable interest, with the Los Angeles Dodgers and Toronto Blue Jays among his expected suitors.
The Bieber mystery (cont.)
Across the industry, executives remain baffled by right-hander Shane Bieber’s decision to exercise his $16 million player option with the Blue Jays, calling it one of the most bizarre in recent memory.
Bieber, 30, had a $4 million buyout, so he effectively took a one-year, $12 million deal. And while he was effusive about his time with the Jays, he almost certainly would have fared better on the open market.
Left-hander Matt Boyd signed a two-year, $29 million free-agent deal with the Chicago Cubs last December after making only 11 starts for the Cleveland Guardians, including postseason, coming off Tommy John surgery. Bieber, 18 months removed from the same surgery, also made 11 starts, and in those games had a combined 3.57 ERA. The Athletic’s Tim Britton projected him at three years and $63 million.
Free agents rarely sacrifice money, even from their preferred clubs. The Jays, too, might have paid Bieber more than $12 million on the open market, assuming they were one of his bidders. His decision would have been understandable if an extension was forthcoming. But no such deal is imminent, according to sources briefed on the matter.
Bieber, who joined the Blue Jays in a deadline trade, evidently trusts the Jays’ medical and training staffs to help him continue his recovery. But some executives wonder if he is concerned about his health. By exercising his player option, he avoided the physical examination required of free agents before their contracts become official.
Bieber started Game 3 in both the Division Series and American League Championship Series before the Jays moved him to Game 4 for the World Series, wanting to give him an extra day of rest and avoid starting him twice in the series. But he showed no signs of strain in Game 4, allowing just one run in 5 1/3 innings. And while he gave up Will Smith’s go-ahead, 11th-inning homer on a 2-0 hanging slider in Game 7, he was pitching on three days rest and making his first relief appearance since March 2019.
Maybe Bieber just wanted stability; his wife, Kara, gave birth to their first child, a son named Kav, on March 14. But again, he could have worked out a better deal with the Jays, and perhaps he will at some point in the future.
For now, the mystery lingers.