SALT LAKE CITY — Utah is fresh off its second bye week, riding the momentum of blowout wins over Colorado and Cincinnati — 98-21 combined score — and got another boost in the College Football Playoff rankings.

At 7-2, Utah is up to No. 13 and fourth among the many two-loss teams.

In addition to their potential playoff path as an at-large selection, Utah still has a shot to play in the Big 12 title game. If BYU loses to either TCU or Cincinnati, it could potentially create a group of 7-2 Big 12 teams, and the tiebreaker scenario could tilt to Utah.

If BYU loses both, then Utah controls its destiny to Dallas, and thus, the playoff.

It seems fitting that these two rivals are intertwined for positioning for a conference title and their first playoff berths. First things first, Utah must go on the road and beat pass-heavy Baylor (5 p.m. MST, ESPN2).

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2022-24): Utah 55.4 (23rd of 68 Power 4) | Baylor 46.9 (43rd)
2024 season: Utah 44.9 (48th) | Baylor 59.0 (25th)
2025 season: Utah 74.1 (10th) | Baylor 54.1 (35th)

My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.

In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected Utah to finish fourth in a wide-open Big 12 race. After their loss to Texas Tech, Utah fell out of the top 25, but they have surged back up to No. 10 after four blowout wins in league play and a tight loss to BYU.

I projected Baylor to finish third in the Big 12, and they fell short of those expectations. In the opener, they allowed 300+ rushing yards in a loss to Auburn, and the defense has been a weakness all season.

They grinded out close, comeback wins over SMU and Kansas State but are just 5-4 (3-3 Big 12) and check in at No. 35 in 2025 Game Grader.

Utah with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted metrics, per Pick Six Previews)

Utah offense: 15th of 68 Power 4 teams, 32nd passing, 4th rushing
Baylor defense: 46th of 68 Power 4 teams, 56th pass defense, 54th rush defense

After missing the Colorado game, quarterback Devon Dampier knocked the rust off in a 45-14 win over Cincinnati. Dampier threw for 213 yards and two touchdowns, and then added 78 more yards on the ground. He is one of the nation’s top dual-threat quarterbacks and is the best at avoiding the pass rush.

Utah’s offensive line should be a Joe Moore Award finalist, so the two remaining questions for Utah’s offense are the running back spot and if they could unlock explosive, downfield pass plays. So far they have hit one of two.

Wayshawn Parker has emerged as a true No. 1 back, and he is on pace to hit his stated 1,000-yard goal.

But the other category, explosive passing, still needs development. Head coach Kyle Whittingham admitted as much stating, “the deep balls and chunk yardage … that’s been a topic all season.”

Baylor head coach Dave Aranda is a defensive genius, but this side of the ball was performing like a weakness through the first half of the season. Their past two games were a sudden change, and a potential fix was they held Cincinnati below their season yardage averages and then held UCF to just 3 points.

It is a small sample size, but they seem to have found themselves after the bye week.

Baylor with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted metrics, per Pick Six Previews)

Baylor offense: 20th of 68 Power 4 teams, 27th passing, 31st rushing
Utah defense: 13th of 68 Power 4 teams, 8th pass defense, 31st rush defense

Baylor’s got the nation’s passing leader in Sawyer Robertson and a full arsenal of playmakers around him. Michael Trigg leads all FBS tight ends with six touchdowns and is second with 607 receiving yards.

Josh Cameron, Ashtyn Hawkins, and Kole Wilson form one of the top receiving trios, where they have combined for 1,473 yards so far. At running back, Bryson Washington earned All-Freshman honors in 2024, and they found another potential star in true freshman Caden Knighten who went for 104 yards in the UCF game.

Robertson does not have the mobility of other Big 12 quarterbacks and is more of a pure pocket passer. This is the style of quarterback that Utah’s defense tends to dominate and disrupt with an aggressive pass rush.

Utah is a top 10 pass defense, and also ranks No. 25 in negative play rate, tracking sacks and tackles for loss. Look for Utah to slow down this fast-paced passing offense.

Game prediction

Utah’s top-10 defense faces the national passing champ. This reminds me of two weeks ago when it was a “strength vs. strength,” with Utah facing Cincinnati’s top offense. Morgan Scalley’s defense held Brendan Sorsby to 33% completion and just 14 points.

This is the toughest defense Baylor has faced since its opening loss to Auburn, and I expect Utah to have success on both sides of the ball. Utah will pass their hardest remaining test and remain in both Big 12 and playoff contention.

Utah 34 | Baylor 23