Farmer’s prediction: Notre Dame makes Pat Narduzzi eat his words, turning their matchup with Pittsburgh into a full-on showcase.
Nov 15, 2025 • 09:15 ET
• 4 min read
Photo By – Imagn Images. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pittsburgh Pirates NCAAF
With no disrespect to Syracuse or Stanford, the Pittsburgh Panthers stand as the last true hurdle of the season for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
My Notre Dame vs. Pittsburgh predictions and college football picks anticipate the Irish securing their College Football Playoff bid with a complete performance when kickoff arrives at 12 p.m. ET on Saturday, November 15.
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Notre Dame vs Pittsburgh prediction
Notre Dame vs Pittsburgh best bet: Notre Dame Team Total Over 33.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have cleared its Team Total just once in its last five games, so worry in this approach would make sense.
But first recognize that Pittsburgh head coach Pat Narduzzi may have ran his mouth a bit too much this week, dismissing the thought of this as a “must-win game” since it is not an ACC game and thus does not impact the Panthers’ chances at reaching the College Football Playoff by winning their conference.
It was not a comment that Notre Dame will receive well. Nor was it a comment that will help the Pittsburgh locker room focus.
Second, know that the Panthers throw the ball at the second-highest relative frequency in the country. Against the Irish pass defense, that will most likely lead to repeated quick and failing drives, giving Notre Dame the ball more often.
And the Irish should turn each opportunity with the ball into a touchdown.
The Irish score 4.56 points per quality drive, the second-highest rate in the country. The Panthers’ defense ranks No. 120 in the country in that regard, allowing 4.2 points per quality drive.
If Notre Dame can get inside Pittsburgh’s 40-yard line just five times, it is reasonable to think that will be enough opportunities for the Irish to clear this team total.
And given the Panthers’ pass-heavy offense, Notre Dame should see at least a dozen possessions, meaning five quality drives would actually be quite a disappointment.
Notre Dame vs Pittsburgh same-game parlay
Jeremiyah Love has cleared this prop in three straight games and in four of his last five. Most pertinently, if Notre Dame wants to get its star running back an invite to the Heisman ceremony in New York City, it needs to boost some of his stats. As long as this game is remotely competitive, Love should keep getting carries.
To keep Pittsburgh honest, the Irish will obviously throw the ball a bit. Will Pauling has scored in five of the last six games, the exception coming last week as he was tackled just short of the goal line against Navy.
Notre Dame vs Pittsburgh SGP
Notre Dame Team Total Over 33.5
Jeremiyah Love Over 90.5 rushing yards
Will Pauling touchdown
Our deep-ball SGP: Look out for Carr
Pittsburgh’s passing attack will not serve it well against Notre Dame; the Irish have gone 2-1-1 against the spread against somewhat comparable passing offenses, the ATS loss coming by the hook in a 34-24 win against USC.
That was also the only game in his last seven that CJ Carr did not throw multiple touchdown passes.
Notre Dame vs Pittsburgh SGP
Notre Dame Team Total Over 33.5
Jeremiyah Love Over 90.5 rushing yards
Will Pauling touchdown
Notre Dame -12.5
CJ Carr Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Notre Dame vs Pittsburgh game predictions
Notre Dame vs Pittsburgh moneyline prediction
For all the vague praise often given to Narduzzi for springing upsets to halt promising seasons from top-tier teams, Pittsburgh is just 1-6 outright as a two-score underdog in the last six seasons. That one win came against ever-more-disappointing Florida State just this season.
Obviously winning as a two-score underdog is always a hard thing to do, but dismiss any storylines saying this is a spot that Narduzzi frequently excels in.
Notre Dame vs Pittsburgh spread prediction
Pittsburgh has gone 5-0 against the spread in its last five games, also the same stretch of time that freshman quarterback Mason Heintschel has been starting. That said, bookmakers have caught up with the Panthers a bit: The first two ATS wins under Heintschel came by 40.5 and then 13.5 points. Most recently, Pittsburgh slipped by Stanford 35-20 as a 14-point favorite.
Notre Dame vs Pittsburgh Over/Under prediction
Three of Heintschel’s five starts have gone Over their totals, not the most convincing of trends but one worth noting.
Notre Dame vs Pittsburgh odds
Spread: Notre Dame -12.5 | Pittsburgh +12.5
Moneyline: Notre Dame -490 | Pittsburgh +380
Over/Under: Over 53.5 | Under 53.5
Notre Dame vs Pittsburgh trend to know
Notre Dame has held its last six opponents all below their Team Totals and by an average of 6.7 points per game. Find more college football betting trends for Notre Dame vs Pittsburgh.
How to watch Notre Dame vs Pittsburgh
Location
Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
Date
Saturday, November 15, 2025
Kickoff
12:00 p.m. ET
TV
ABC
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