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It’s a Tuesday in November, which means the College Football Playoff selection committee will announce its latest rankings this evening, giving me another chance to try to project what it’s going to do — this time after a hectic Saturday in the SEC.
Last week’s rankings showed us that the committee was more fond of the resumes from Texas and Oklahoma than BYU, which was the biggest miss on my part. In the end, my projected rankings got 24 of the 25 teams correct, including the top Group of 5 team, though the aim is to get at least the top 10 in order.
Here’s what I think will happen in the Nov. 17 rankings:
Projected CFP Top 25 after Week 12
Rank
Team
Record
SOR
SOS
1
10-0
4
71
2
11-0
2
48
3
10-0
1
20
4
9-1
3
15
5
10-1
7
49
6
10-1
5
31
7
9-1
10
60
8
8-2
11
10
9
8-2
8
13
10
8-2
9
24
11
9-1
6
30
12
8-2
14
41
13
8-2
16
29
14
8-2
13
39
15
9-1
15
83
16
8-2
12
37
17
8-2
17
44
18
7-3
27
6
19
9-2
18
76
20
7-3
26
33
21
7-3
25
32
22
8-2
20
74
23
9-1
23
120
24
9-1
34
116
25
7-3
24
11
Next five: Tulane, Washington, SMU, Louisville, Navy
Strength of record and strength of schedule rankings are based on The Athletic’s model
Biggest questions: Does Alabama fall past Notre Dame? Where’s Texas?
Texas fell off the board of my projections page at less than 1 percent, but there remains a small world where it can still make the Playoff after its third loss against Georgia.
Yes, there is still some hope. My model has been low on the Longhorns’ chances all season, but the committee ranked them higher than I projected last week, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they did again this week. Texas (7-3) has to hope the committee leans on its strong strength of schedule metric (sixth toughest, according to my model) to stay ahead of Vanderbilt (8-2) because of a head-to-head victory.
If that doesn’t happen, I’m not sure a win over Texas A&M in the regular-season finale will propel the Longhorns far enough to secure an at-large bid without a ton of help. They’ll have to find a way to win the SEC title to get a bid.
I don’t think Texas, which lost to Florida (3-7), has the resume to be ahead of the Commodores with an extra loss, especially after needing overtime to get past Kentucky and Mississippi State in recent games. The Longhorns should be the top three-loss team in the country right now, but they shouldn’t find themselves ahead of Vanderbilt, Miami, Georgia Tech, USC and Michigan.
With Texas on the periphery of the conversation, the most pressing question Tuesday is whether Alabama will fall past Notre Dame after losing to Oklahoma, as it did in the AP Top 25. We saw Texas and Oklahoma — both two-loss SEC teams at the time — jump over BYU and slot right behind Notre Dame last week; will Alabama share the same fate after losing at home to Oklahoma? It’s close.
Alabama does get the nod in my rankings this week, but the margin is so slim that it wouldn’t shock me to see the Crimson Tide fall further than No. 9 after being ranked No. 4 last Tuesday. The big issue will likely be that Alabama has the worst loss — on the road at Florida State, which is now 5-5 — and that’s the decider between the two teams, given that the Irish have lost only to Texas A&M and Miami.
If people were mad about Notre Dame being ranked so far ahead of Miami two weeks ago despite the head-to-head result (my projections agreed with the committee), I think we will have similar discourse with the committee siding with the Fighting Irish this week.
Again, it’s close, but I’d give the nod to Alabama, which has a better collection of wins, including against Georgia.
What the 12-team bracket would look like
The bracket below is based on the projected selection committee rankings for Nov. 18. Find my projections for the final bracket here.