Here’s How USC Upset Over Oregon Could Create College Football Playoff Chaos

Ten teams could have legitimate playoff resumes with SEC, Big Ten, and Notre Dame all vying for limited spots

PublishedNovember 20, 2025 4:30 PM EST•UpdatedNovember 20, 2025 3:11 PM EST

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One of the longest-running traditions in college football is debating which team is better than the other. Regional divides, exacerbated by conference affiliations, led to unending superiority arguments. 

“This team would lose 5 games in our conference.” “Of course, our schedule is harder than yours.” “It just means more, which is why our teams are better.” 

On and on it goes. And these arguments, which previously primarily affected just a handful of teams, have grown only more widespread and important as the College Football Playoff has expanded to a 12-team field. Thanks to the advent of NIL and unlimited transfers, the gaps between teams has never been smaller. Which makes these debates even more difficult. 

Well, with one significant result on Saturday, the debate over which teams deserve at-large bids in this year’s playoff could become even more intense and tough to decide. And it’s not any one of the SEC’s traditional cupcake weekend games.

RELATED: It’s That Time Of Year: SEC Football Cupcake Weekend Is Back And Better Than Ever

What happens to the playoff race if the USC Trojans upset the Oregon Ducks in Eugene on Saturday? Chaos. That’s what happens.

EUGENE, Ore. – Dan Lanning of the Oregon Ducks reacts during the first half of the game against the Oklahoma State Cowboys at Autzen Stadium on September 6, 2025. (Photo by Robin Alam/ISI Photos/ISI Photos via Getty Images)

USC Win Over Oregon Would Have Massive Impact On CFB Playoff Rankings

In this week’s poll, USC is No. 15 and Oregon is No. 7. But what happens if USC wins? The Trojans would then sit at 9-2, with wins over Michigan, Iowa, Nebraska and Oregon. Their two losses would be to No. 21 Illinois and No. 9 Notre Dame, both on the road. SC’s last game of the season is against the UCLA Bruins at the Coliseum a week from Saturday. The Trojans will enter that game as heavy favorites, likely by two touchdowns, depending on the health of quarterback Nico Iamaleava. 

Given the likelihood that Indiana and Ohio State win out, the Trojans would avoid having to face either of those top teams in the Big Ten Championship. You’d then have a 10-2 USC team, with several quality wins, two “quality” losses, and an 8-1 Big Ten Conference record. How can that team be left out of a 12-team field? 

Sure enough, ESPN’s playoff predictor gives that hypothetical SC resume a 75 percent chance of making the playoff. But then what about Oregon? 

The Ducks, assuming they lose on Saturday and beat Washington, would also be 10-2. Their two losses would be to Indiana, arguably the best team in the country this year, and a top-10 caliber USC team. The playoff predictor gives them a 78 percent chance of making the playoff, even with a loss. 

Except, and here’s where the chaos comes in, what happens with the SEC’s at large bids in this scenario? 

Texas A&M and Georgia are near shoe-ins to make the 12-team field. Ole Miss is likely to finish with just one loss in the SEC, assuming the Rebels don’t make the SEC Championship game. Oklahoma just beat Alabama, in Tuscaloosa, and will be heavily favored in its remaining games. Alabama beat Georgia on the road, plays a high school team this weekend, then will be heavily favored over Auburn. 

Then there’s Notre Dame at 10-2, with two losses to Texas A&M and Miami, and a win over a top-10 USC team.

Here’s how this shakes out with contending teams, in this hypothetical:

USC 10-2Oregon 10-2Alabama 10-2Oklahoma 10-2Texas A&M 12-0 (11-1 w/loss to Texas, or 12-1 w/loss in SEC Championship)Georgia 11-1 (11-2 w/loss in SEC Championship, or 12-1 with a win)Ole Miss 11-1Indiana 12-0 (12-1 w/loss in Big 10 Championship)Ohio State 12-0 (12-1 w/loss in Big 10 Championship)Notre Dame 10-2

That’s 10 teams. Except at least one Big 12 team will make the playoff. A Group of 5 team will make the playoff. An ACC team will make the playoff. And depending on how conference championship games play out,  there could be teams like Texas Tech that could still have a case to be included with a loss to say, BYU. Then what happens if Texas beats Texas A&M, and Alabama beats Georgia to win the SEC? Georgia and A&M would still need to make the field, so does that push USC or Oregon out? Or does Notre Dame take a back seat, even with its win over the Trojans? Or does Oklahoma lose out in that scenario, despite its big win in Tuscaloosa? 

Here’s the playoff percentages if that scenario happens.

USC 75%Oregon 78%Alabama 100%Oklahoma 98%Texas A&M 99%Georgia 99%Ole Miss 99%Indiana 99%Ohio State 99%Notre Dame 82%

Except…it isn’t possible for all these teams to make it. Someone with a 75 percent chance or better to make the playoff would be left out. That’s chaos.

If Oregon wins, the picture becomes a bit clearer. And the conference championship games will play a significant role, even more so for teams that don’t have to risk another loss in the SEC or Big 10. But if USC wins? Put simply, there are going to be too many teams with legitimate, playoff-worthy resumes. Some will be left out of the field. And the arguing and debating will only intensify.