The Seattle Mariners just set their 40-man roster a couple days ago, but don’t get too used to how it looks. The deadline for teams to tender contracts for 2026 is on Friday, and it’s doubtful that the Mariners will be so kind to all of their eligible players.

In case anyone’s totally lost, the tender deadline only applies to players who are eligible for arbitration for the 2026 season. Teams can either “tender” them contracts or they can “non-tender” them, which forces them off the roster and onto the free-agent market.

As per Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors, the Mariners have 11 such players, and most of them present uncomplicated choices. Randy Arozarena, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Matt Brash, Gabe Speier and Bryce Miller are too good to be cut loose, and the Mariners have already sealed Taylor Saucedo’s fate by designating him for assignment.

This leaves four players who are on the chopping block, and they fit neatly into two categories: sure goners, and likely stayers.

2 Mariners who won’t survive the non-tender chopping blockRHP Gregory Santos

2026 Projected Salary: $800,000

Santos looked like a clever pick-up when the Mariners got him in a trade with the Chicago White Sox in February of 2024. He was coming off a breakout season in Chicago’s bullpen, and his Statcast profile featured such goodies as 98th percentile fastball velocity and a barrel rate in the 100th percentile.

Unfortunately, the 26-year-old has been a flop as a Mariner. Injuries have limited him to a total of 30 appearances between the minors and the majors across the last two seasons, and he couldn’t throw strikes to save his life when he did pitch this year.

Even if $800,000 isn’t a lot of money, the Mariners could potentially spend less and do better with one of their other pieces, such as newcomer Alex Hoppe or even Emerson Hancock if they want to try him in relief again.

RHP Jackson Kowar

2026 Projected Salary: $800,000

Kowar is one of the players the Mariners got back when they shipped Marco Gonzales and Jarred Kelenic to the Atlanta Braves two winters ago. He had formerly been a top-100 prospect in the Kansas City Royals system, and was thus a good upside play in the abstract.

That ship sailed almost immediately, as Kowar ended up missing all of 2024 after having Tommy John surgery. He returned this year and finally made his Mariners debut on May 28, yet he failed to make an impression in the majors with a 4.24 ERA in 15 appearances. He did have a 2.81 ERA with Triple-A Tacoma, but with 10 walks against 16 strikeouts in 16 innings.

Again, $800,000 isn’t a lot of money. But it is slightly more than the major league minimum for 2026, and the 29-year-old Kowar has yet to prove he’s better than any standard minor leaguer.

2 Mariners who could survive the non-tender chopping blockOF/1B Luke Raley

2026 Projected Salary: $1.8 million

Raley just had a year he’d like to forget. He only played in 73 games because of a drip, drip, drip of injuries, and these saw him post a .631 OPS and -0.3 rWAR. The 31-year-old was largely in the background by the time the Mariners were in the playoffs, and then off their roster for the ALCS.

However, the Mariners have all but promised that Raley will be back in 2026. As general manager Justin Hollander said during last week’s GM meetings, according to Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times: “He didn’t have a great year, and a lot of it was out of his control. I would expect a big bounce-back year.”

This was notably before the Mariners re-signed Josh Naylor and closed off a path to playing time for Raley at first base. Yet he still fits as part of a right field platoon with Victor Robles, and $1.8 million just isn’t a lot of money to bet on a guy who had a 127 OPS+ across 2023 and 2024.

RHP Trent Thornton

2026 Projected Salary: $2.5 million

This one might be a reach, and not just because Thornton was facing a recovery time of six-to-eight months after tearing his left Achilles tendon in August. He also had an ugly 4.68 ERA in 33 appearances before that.

Barring any setbacks, though, Thornton should be ready to pitch sometime early in the 2026 season. And even if the 32-year-old has a general profile that screams “league average pitcher,” he has a track record as a bulk innings-eater out of the bullpen. His 235 career appearances cover 401 innings.

The Mariners were willing to pay $2 million for Thornton’s services this year, so a bump up to $2.5 million may not be a leap too far.