Baseball is not just a young man’s game. The most valuable players in both leagues are above the age of 30. That said, no baseball player can play the game forever, and offensive production decreases as players get older. Immediate production is important for dynasty success, but so is continuity. Fantasy managers need to recognize when a player’s value is at its peak—or decreasing, and work to maximize the value they can get from them before they’re stuck with a depreciating asset.

I did a similar article to this last offseason and was right on 60% of my selections. Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, and Marcus Semien all saw their values decrease last season. However, George Springer and Cody Bellinger proved me wrong and then some. They serve to show that even players with the warning signs for regression can adapt their game and find another level. The same thing can certainly happen to these selections as well, even if there are legitimate reasons for concern.

This article aims to identify players whose values could drop significantly next season, even if they’re still valued highly on paper. This does not mean their production will decrease immediately, but it’s a real possibility for these names. Here are five players who could see their dynasty value decrease significantly in 2026.

Note: NFBC’s Average Draft Position (ADP) is referenced multiple times in this article. These values are for Redraft leagues and do not represent dynasty values. However, they serve as valuable indicators of where the industry values certain players in the present day. 

 

Veteran Hitters With Regression Potential

 

Eugenio Suárez – Free Agent

We’re starting this list off with a bang. Suárez was one of the most potent power threats in the league last season, mashing 49 home runs in 2025 with the Arizona Diamondbacks and Seattle Mariners. Now a free agent, Suárez is one of the biggest bats on the market. He ranks second among team-less hitters with a .526 SLG, and trails only Kyle Schwarber in home runs.

Shockingly, for a player near 50 home runs, Suárez’s best asset at the plate is his electric power. His bat speed (72.3 mph) and average exit velocity (90.2 mph) are right at the league average, but Suárez’s barrel rate (14.3%) and AirPull% (28.6%) are among the league’s best. When he gets his pitch, he doesn’t miss. The problem is with the rest of his game. Suárez’s whiff rate is among the worst in the league (33.3%), and his 31% chase rate prevents him from being a threat to work walks. He also greatly overperformed (.228 AVG, .526 SLG) his expected stats (.211 xBA, .449 xSLG). If he regresses, his value will regress too.

On top of that, the lack of clarity around where Suárez will play 81 home games next season leads to high levels of volatility in his value. His Process+ took a nose-dive in the second half of the season after he was traded to Seattle. There was a glaring difference in the offensive production Suárez generated at Chase Field (103 Park Factor from 23-’25, third most hitter-friendly in MLB) than he did at T-Mobile Park (91 Park Factor, dead last in MLB).

Can Suárez match or exceed his home run total from 2025? Sure. Could his power regress as a result of his below-average contact and discipline tools? That’s just as likely. Suárez is a high-risk, high-reward asset that can be an elite power hitter if he maintains the same performance he did last season. At the same time, he could also regress towards the 100 wRC+ mark as a 35-year-old. You can trust the pop in Suárez’s bat as he enters the twilight of his career, but managers shouldn’t be blamed for cashing in on a career year from a mid-30s hitter with holes in his game.

 

Luis Robert Jr. Jr – Chicago White Sox

To say that this is a different situation than Suárez would be an understatement. In two straight seasons, Robert has been marketed as a potential “change of scenery” candidate with 30/30 potential. Instead, he’s posted two straight 84 wRC+ seasons and is still with the White Sox despite the team being in the midst of a rebuild. Robert’s .223 AVG, .364 SLG, and .274 BABIP are all the worst marks of his career. The aforementioned wRC+ and .661 OPS were in the bottom 12 among MLB outfielders last year (min. 400 PA’s).

Still, managers continue to have faith that Robert’s tools will translate into production in the future. It does make some sense. Robert’s an all-around athlete who has elite raw skills. His bat speed (75.6 mph) and sprint speed (29 ft/s) are both in the 90th percentile or higher, and he has great range in the outfield (7 OAA, 93rd percentile). He also made significant strides in terms of plate approach. His whiff rate dropped over 4%, which led to a 7% drop in strikeouts. Those improvements, in tandem with a near 10% walk rate for the first time in his career, are encouraging for the 28-year-old.

That’s where the fun stops, though. Robert’s “improved” whiff rate is still well below league average at 31.7%. He still struggles to lay off on pitches out of the zone (32.5% Chase), and can get beat in the zone too (15.7% SwStr). When he makes contact, he has the potential to do damage, but his batted ball numbers don’t match the potential he has given the elite bat speed (41.6% Hard Hit, 89.4 AVG EV). Robert’s underlying (10.2% Barrel) and expected (.419 xSLG, .321 xwOBA) all hover around the league average mark, but they’re a long way off from his 2023 marks, a year where he posted a .857 OPS.

Despite the drop, he still holds value in the top-140 picks in redraft leagues. Jo Adell (37 HR), Steven Kwan (.741 career OPS), and Brandon Nimmo (114 wRC+) are some of the other names in his ADP region. All of those names are safer than Robert. Sure, the White Sox center fielder has more fantasy upside, but it’s been absent for two years. If you’re a Robert owner, and can sell a league-mate on his upside, cash in before he regresses any further.

 

Christian Yelich – Milwaukee Brewers

It always hurts to watch a player you grew up watching start the beginning of the end of his career. That might be the case for Yelich. On paper, 2025 looked like a mini-revival for the 33-year-old. He mashed 29 home runs, his most since 2019, when he finished as the runner-up in MVP voting. However, nearly every other offensive metric took a step back, which could limit his value in 2026 and beyond.

2024 got off to a great start for Yelich, but a series of back issues kept him from maintaining his 154 wRC+ pace across the full season. Yelich’s HR/FB of 29.6% in 2025 was his highest since the COVID season. That came at the expense of a five-point bump in CSW% and a six-point bump in whiff rate. Yelich still has good power, but the rise in swing-and-miss and a drop in bat speed (down a full tick since 2023) could cause regression.

On top of the drop in production, his competition field just became much larger. Yelich will likely be losing his outfield eligibility this season, as he spent just 153 innings (all in left field) with the Brewers in 2025. In order to get Yelich into your lineup, you have to place him in your utility spot every day. There are definitely worse options to have in that spot on a day-to-day basis, but the lack of flexibility that Yelich offers as he enters his age-34 season is worrying.

For a player in the top 100 in ADP, Yelich comes with a lot of red flags. He’s going in the same region as Drake Baldwin and Will Smith, and before Michael Busch. In a vacuum, you could make the argument that Yelich has the potential to outperform all of those names and more because of the newfound power-first approach. However, considering all of those names have other ways to get into fantasy lineups outside of the utility spot, their value increases while Yelich’s stays stagnant. Obviously, the dynasty values are different, but it’s an indication that it’s possible to pick up significant assets in return for the Brewers’ star.

 

Spencer Steer – Cincinnati Reds

In terms of name recognition, Steer is a tier below the other names on this list. That said, he broke out in 2023 with a 118 wRC+, 23 home run season. Reds fans were hoping that he’d blossom into a consistent .270 AVG, 25-HR bat in the middle of their lineup, as did dynasty owners. In the two years since, he’s been good, but not great. Steer posted a .722 OPS and 97 wRC+ in 1224 plate appearances between 2024 and 2025.

To give credit to Steer, he’s remarkably consistent. However, the performances he puts in on a frequent basis are below the level required to be a fantasy-effective first baseman. Steer’s batted ball data is bad. An 87.3 mph average exit velocity (14th percentile) and 33.2% Hard Hit rate are not going to cut it for a player hitting in the cleanup spot for a playoff team. His expected stats are worse than his .723 OPS and 97 wRC+ indicate. He outperformed his .220 xBA by 18 points and his xSLG by over 50 points. It would be one thing if Steer had good swing decisions or elite bat-to-ball skills to make up for the lack of damage, but he’s average (or even arguably below average) in both areas. He does hit the ball in the air at a high rate (25.8%), but his fast swing rate (7.1%) and EV50 (97.8) indicate he doesn’t produce enough power to consistently turn those batted balls into damage.

Steer is still expected to be a part of the Reds’ lineup going into 2026, but his role has changed. Sal Stewart’s arrival means competition for Steer at first, although Steer should win the majority of time due to his glove (8 DRS). Given the amount of competition there is at first base in fantasy, Steer could be surplus to requirements on fantasy rosters. He’s not the on-base and power threat that other players in his position are. Some other players around Steer’s ADP are intriguing arms like veteran Matthew Boyd and youngster Hurston Waldrep. Kyle Manzardo (~240 ADP) is being drafted after Steer, and arguably has more upside than him. Steer has value because of his consistency, but there are other options at his price point that have the upside to warrant making a move.

Mookie Betts – Los Angeles Dodgers 

We started with a bang, and we’re going to end with a bang. Take nothing away from Mookie Betts. He’s been one of the best players of his generation and has quite the track record to back it up. If four World Series titles, an MVP Award, six Gold Gloves, seven Silver Sluggers, and eight All-Star Games aren’t good enough for the Hall of Fame, what is?

There’s no doubt that Betts will be immortalized in Cooperstown. His legacy is secure. However, like all great careers, Betts will have to hang up his cleats at some point. While the 33-year-old still generates offensive production, his .732 OPS and 104 wRC+ were both career lows. The numbers indicate it wasn’t a fluke, as there are major differences between his career marks and his 2025 performance.

Mookie Betts
AVG
SLG
wOBA
AVG. EV
HardHit%
Barrel%

Career (’14-’24)
0.294
0.524
0.38
90.5
45.5
8.7

2025
0.258
0.406
0.318
89.1
35.8
5.5

His season, while a step down from his usual performance, still generated 3.4 fWAR last season, 13th in the Majors among shortstops. There are also reasons to believe he could rebound. Betts’ undisclosed illness that affected his physicality seems to be a thing of the past. However, his bat speed has stayed consistently below league average (69.0 mph) since 2024, and his fast swing rate in 2025 was his lowest on record (8%). Betts still has 20 home run power, but the days of him reaching 30+ may be behind him. His saving grace is his plate approach, which is still elite. Betts continues to be a hard out (15.3% Whiff, 21.6% Chase), which should allow him to get into counts that allow him to do damage.

Is Mookie Betts still going to put together outstanding games in 2026? Yes. He’s going to have stretches where he plays to the level that he’s been at for years: one of the best players on the planet. Those performances are becoming rarer, though. Considering he’s still being drafted as the seventh shortstop in the top-40 picks, well before Geraldo Perdomo (7.2 fWAR), Corey Seager (4.0), and CJ Abrams (3.1), there’s still a market out there for Betts’ production. Given the regression Betts has already undergone, it could be wise to cash in on his name-brand value now to get a top-of-the-line return.