Jim Hiller had a line that resonated with me after yesterday’s win over Ottawa.
“The game, to me, is very similar to probably about five of them here that we’ve had that maybe we’ve come up short by a goal.”
It made me think about how the team has struggled to win games at home. They’ve played nine games in Los Angeles this season and won just two. If you were to rank those nine games by how well the Kings played, the 3-0 win over Winnipeg probably sits at the top, but although the Kings won last night against Ottawa, I don’t think that means it was the second-best game the Kings have played here this season, just like that. The Kings dominated Detroit and New Jersey but lost both games. They should’ve comfortable beaten Pittsburgh but lost on small mistakes. Even against Boston, the Kings should’ve won that game by multiple goals and didn’t. So I understand Hiller’s point. While it’s nice to win, it doesn’t mean that every time the Kings have lost it’s been a poor performance, or that just because they won, it means they suddenly played better.
He referenced multiple times that he felt last night’s game was very similar to some others played at home this season. The difference was that Brandt Clarke delivered a power-play goal late that secured the two points. So often this season, the Kings have had chances or moments to win games and they have not taken them, many times on the man advantage. Last night, it wasn’t really all that different in how they played, but they took their chance to win the game.
“You could be talking about, man, he didn’t get the goal and it was a hard-fought game and what’s wrong, but when the puck goes in, now we’re celebrating the results.”
Indeed.
The puck went in, so we’re talking about the result being a good one. But it wasn’t as if last night was really any different than the Boston game. Both games were low-scoring and tightly-contested. Not an “A-Game” offensively speaking. There were similarities to some other games the Kings have played at home as well. There were attempts, there were high-danger chances from top-quality players, ample opportunities to lead by more. But once again, there was a dearth of goals scored.
In games played at home, the Kings rank fourth in the NHL in shot attempts per/60 minutes played. They’re also in the league’s Top-10 in high-danger chances.
Goals scored, though? The Kings rank 31st. PDO, which combines shooting percentage and save percentage? The Kings rank 31st. No team in the league has a worse disparity at home between actual goals per/60 and expected goals per/60 than the Kings, who are -1.3 per 60 minutes played at home this season.
Depending on your point of view, I think that represents one of two things with the Kings right now. If you’re a glass half full person, you’d look at it very optimistically. You’d see a team that, despite averaging under two goals per game at home this season, is on pace for 100 points, sitting just one point out of the division lead in the Pacific Division, with a head-to-head matchup against the current leaders coming up on Friday. You’d look at an unsustainably low set of metrics and several players scoring below their career metrics and understand that a regression towards the mean is far more likely than not. And with that regression towards the mean, you’re taking a team on pace for 100 points and trending upwards……while it’s been far from perfect, that should be pretty exciting.
If you’re on the other side of the glass, you’ll point to a team that doesn’t have a ton of natural finishers who are simply not finishing, especially at home. For a team that was built to deliver depth scoring offensively, they really haven’t gotten goals from anywhere in the lineup, they’ve just gotten enough in key moments to win close games or force close games into overtime. You’d likely look back instead of ahead and point to a body of work that doesn’t scream change, rather than the law of averages theory.
The truth, as always, lies somewhere in the middle.
Over the last four seasons, even the NHL’s worst teams averaged North of two goals per/60 at home over 41 games. In that span, only three teams in total – San Jose, Anaheim and Chicago in 2023-24 – averaged below 2.5 goals per/60 at home. Those were the three worst teams in the NHL by far. So, even going off the barometer of say the fourth-worst team offensively at home over the last four seasons, the Kings would improve by nearly a half-goal per/60 at home just by hitting that super-low barometer. And that is the bare minimum. Eventually, things will swing upwards in that area.
However, you’ve also got to see the change. Someone has to be the change or in this case, multiple someones have to be the change. The Kings have seen just about all sources of offense dry up as of late, minus the shorthanded prowess of forward Joel Armia. Adrian Kempe has two goals in his last 14 games and it’s two in 19 for Quinton Byfield. Andrei Kuzmenko has one goal in 14 games, while Trevor Moore hasn’t scored this month and Phillip Danault hasn’t scored this season. They know that and they’re working on changing it, the right way. Lots of guys with room to grow. All players with track records and bodies of work to point to. Even if they don’t hit their career highs or even their career averages, there’s a lot of room between where they’re at and those high-end numbers. But that’s in the past. Looking forward, there’s lots of directions to point in looking for change.
I guess that’s all to say that in time, we should expect natural improvements, but that can’t be the approach the Kings are taking. They’re working on proactive changes, sticking to their process of how they play but trying to find more goals within that structure and style of play. It’s not easy nor will it be overnight. They’re in a good spot right now despite all of these things and with that foundation, now it’s time to get the offense going to take it to the next level.