We’re days away from the regular season ending and coaches officially taking new jobs, including Lane Kiffin … right? Here’s what we’re hearing around all of it.

The latest with Lane

The longer this has dragged on, the more strongly industry sources have felt that Kiffin is likely to leave Ole Miss. If he were staying, he could announce it whenever and remove a distraction for the Rebels’ Egg Bowl rivalry game against Mississippi State. Everyone at Ole Miss but Kiffin is acknowledging the awkwardness of this.

Athletic director Keith Carter put out a statement last Friday saying Kiffin would make his decision after this Friday’s game. Multiple Ole Miss players, including quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, have posted on social media that they’re not distracted and are focusing on the game. Kiffin at his weekly press conference said three times he wouldn’t talk about other jobs.

He’s the first big domino that has to fall. People familiar with LSU’s and Florida’s searches have painted the picture of two schools that both feel confident in their ability to land Kiffin, with similarly enormous salaries and commitments for tens of millions toward the roster (those payments are supposed to be capped or approved by the Collegiate Sports Commission, but who’s counting?).

Of those two schools, Florida seems more prepared for backup plans, like Tulane coach Jon Sumrall, Washington coach Jedd Fisch (a Florida alum), Louisville’s Jeff Brohm and Vanderbilt’s Clark Lea. Figuring out to whom LSU would turn if it’s not Kiffin has been difficult to pin down. Few to no names have been mentioned, depending on who you talk to. Does that mean LSU is the more likely landing spot for Kiffin, or is LSU just more confident and/or secretive with a big and unexpected swing as a backup option? We’ll find out Friday or Saturday.

It puts the schools that don’t end up with Kiffin in the difficult spot of hyping up a new coach while their fans know he wasn’t the first choice. Not landing a first choice is a normal part of coaching searches, but the pursuits typically don’t last this long in the public eye. If Kiffin leaves Ole Miss, he’s not likely to coach the Rebels in the College Football Playoff, and the most likely interim options would be defensive coordinator Pete Golding or quarterbacks coach Joe Judge.

Dominoes and intel on other searches

After Kiffin, the next domino is Sumrall. Here’s what I’m hearing on other searches.

At Ole Miss, Sumrall is expected to be a top option if Kiffin leaves. Sumrall was an Ole Miss assistant in 2018, and the Rebels’ roster spending has made that job much more attractive than it used to be. But Sumrall, an Alabama native, has been a top focus of the search at Auburn, where his wife went to school. And again, Florida could be an option if Kiffin goes to LSU. It’s also worth noting that Fisch has a $10 million buyout to leave Washington. Auburn has long planned to name a coach the day after Saturday’s Iron Bowl. If not Sumrall, Missouri’s Eli Drinkwitz, Georgia Tech’s Brent Key and Lea could be options, as well as current interim head coach D.J. Durkin, who has support.

Arkansas is in the final stretch of its search and could wrap up any day. The top candidates are down to Alabama defensive coordinator Kane Wommack (a former Arkansas player), South Florida head coach Alex Golesh, Texas A&M offensive coordinator Collin Klein and Memphis head coach Ryan Silverfield, whose regular season wraps up Thursday night. North Texas’ Eric Morris was in on this search before taking the Oklahoma State job, though he will stick with the Mean Green through the rest of the regular season (a G5-to-P4 move is different from Kiffin moving within the SEC to a rival).

With Morris off to Oklahoma State, North Texas will have a slew of options. Texas special assistant Neal Brown (the former Troy/West Virginia head coach) has been talked about. Clemson offensive coordinator Garrett Riley was in the mix last time the job opened, and his time at Clemson has seen mixed results. Texas State head coach GJ Kinne has done a good job there despite a down 2025 season, and while he has a good $2 million salary, North Texas has better facilities and resources, although his buyout could be prohibitive, too. Texas Tech offensive coordinator Mack Leftwich helped build FCS Incarnate Word’s success alongside Morris (and then with Kinne). Oregon running backs coach Ra’Shaad Samples has deep Dallas-Fort Worth ties and will make a run at it. Other names to watch could include Miami (Fla.) offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson, Alabama co-defensive coordinator Mo Linguist, Baylor offensive coordinator Jake Spavital, TCU offensive coordinator Kendal Briles and Abilene Christian head coach Keith Patterson.

Colorado State’s search to replace Jay Norvell stayed relatively quiet until Jim Mora emerged as the choice on Tuesday night, but Mora taking a job out west ultimately wasn’t a surprise. The well-resourced Rams get the California native closer to home, and Mora was in the process of building a new house in Idaho in 2021 while working at ESPN when he took the UConn job and went east.

At Oregon State, credit Oregonian reporter Ryan Clarke for finding Montana State head coach Brent Vigen at the Portland airport on Sunday (Vigen declined comment to the paper). He’s in the mix, as is Alabama co-offensive coordinator JaMarcus Shephard, a former Washington and Washington State assistant. North Dakota State head coach Tim Polasek agreed to a new contract with the Bison on Tuesday, seemingly taking him out of the race. Former Cal coach Justin Wilcox could be a potential late addition option to shake up that search after getting fired on Sunday.

At Cal, Oregon defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi is the early favorite to replace Wilcox. If Cal moves quickly, he appears likely to be the choice, as a former Cal player and assistant with strong West Coast recruiting ties. If the search goes longer, it could open up to several options.

At UAB, SMU offensive coordinator Casey Woods is among the final options. Navy offensive coordinator Drew Cronic (a former Mercer head coach) is also a name to watch, while Mercer’s Mike Jacobs and Presbyterian’s Steve Englehart were in the mix earlier.

Stanford’s search has been kept close to the vest. Washington Commanders quarterbacks coach Tavita Pritchard (Andrew Luck’s former backup QB at Stanford) was a popular name early on but may be cooling off as he leans toward sticking in the NFL. This search has long expected to have more NFL names in the mix.

At UCLA, James Madison coach Bob Chesney is still in the mix. He’s also a candidate at Penn State, whose search has also been relatively quiet.

Have we reached a ceiling on buyouts?

We may be watching the coaching contract landscape beginning to change in real-time, outside of the very top of the market.

In recent weeks, Florida State, Wisconsin, Maryland and Baylor have all announced that their coaches — Mike Norvell, Luke Fickell, Mike Locksley and Dave Aranda — are coming back for 2026. The news was met with groans from their respective fan bases, but in an era where players are getting paid, schools outside the richest tier are finally showing there is a limit to how much they’re willing to commit to pay to start over with a new coach.

The theme here is money and a desire not to spend it to fire someone right now. Norvell had a $59 million buyout and Fickell $25 million, both with offsets, while Locksley’s was $13 million with no offset and half due within 60 days. (Aranda’s buyout is not known because Baylor is a private university, but the school is also dealing with an athletic director change). If you think this evolving change is bad news for coaches, it’s actually the opposite.

“The buyout is there to protect the coach,” as one coaching agent put it. “That means it’s working.”

These coaches will get more time to get it right. The richest of schools (LSU, Penn State, etc.) will continue to spend whatever it takes, agents say, but other schools are trying to figure out how to be more fiscally responsible and not lock themselves into a coach they may sour on. One option could be shorter contracts with more money up front.

“I think assistant salaries will be suppressed and the personnel (staff) bubble will burst,” the agent said. “Schools are going to get smarter about the length and take protection on the back end, because there’s so much parity. That’s what’s been going on in FCS for years. They’re not giving out long deals.”

Driving this approach is the need to find as much money as possible for players. Wisconsin and Maryland said as much in their announcements, while Florida State will also make changes to its front office department. But can you convince fans to pay up for players if they don’t believe in the coach?

“Donors are tired of you going back to them for this,” the agent said.

But top-20 seasons at Texas Tech and Virginia this year should be proof of how investing in the roster can make a difference regardless of the coach.

As much as people want things to change, not everyone is convinced the leverage shift from coaches to players has changed enough yet.

“I doubt anything really changes,” a second agent said. “Maybe some schools and coaches will get a little more creative with front-loading contracts, but as of right now, the only way to continue to bring in big names is offer big money if it doesn’t work out. That’s the consideration some of these schools are having. They don’t want to be on the hook for the buyout money, while also having to promise another coach probably even more buyout money.”

New contracts are becoming more incentive-laden

The idea that schools should make contracts more incentive-based rather than guarantee-based is at least halfway playing out in the new contracts that have been signed so far this fall. That is, there are certainly a lot more incentives in this year’s crop of deals.

Take James Franklin’s letter of intent with Virginia Tech signed last week. Per the letter, Franklin will receive a $9.5 million pool for 10 assistant coaches and $6 million pool for support staff, but those numbers can increase with all kinds of accomplishments (along with bonuses for himself). Winning as little as six games in his first year would increase the assistant pool by a bonus of $200k and the support staff pool by $125k for a year, with escalating increases with more wins. Even ACC Championship Game appearances up to a national championship can further grow that pool with bonuses, separate from Franklin’s own pay.

Matt Rhule’s new extension at Nebraska stipulates he can receive a $1 million base salary raise for making the Playoff. That one is cumulative, meaning the raise for one CFP appearance applies to every remaining year on the deal. Rhule’s contract was extended, but without any non-incentive raises.

And as mentioned in this notebook a few weeks ago, Curt Cignetti’s new Indiana contract includes a good faith effort clause to make him a top-three paid coach if Indiana makes a CFP semifinal. That could be especially notable with Lane Kiffin’s raise coming from whatever school he chooses.

A Lincoln Riley update

USC’s head coach finally said Tuesday night that he “100 percent” will be back at USC next season, so we can close the door on that.