If one thing has held true for the Atlanta Braves under Alex Anthopoulos, it is that the team refuses to pay more than they think a player is worth on longer deals. They will certainly spend to build a winner as the Braves have consistently been a top 10 payroll and have given nine figure deals to core players like Matt Olson, Spencer Strider, Austin Riley, and Michael Harris II. Not all of those deals will work out in all likelihood, but they were pretty pricey deals that didn’t feel like overpays at the time. This offseason, that philosophy could be put to the test.
We have already seen evidence of the Braves’ needing to overpay if they want to really address their roster holes this offseason. There have been no shortage of projections that would have the Braves landing Bo Bichette despite what he is likely to cost and the fact that he probably shouldn’t even be a shortstop. Unfortunately, that potential need to overpay could extend to their quest for rotation help.
Looking at The Athletic’s Andy McCullough’s Black Friday deals for every MLB team, a wide range of players were projected from the absolute top of the market free agents to what we will called the “Chas McCormick” tier of free agents. For the Braves, McCullough had them adding Dylan Cease and that move would have some concerns that would come with it.
Dylan Cease remains a possible fit for the Braves, but his price tag is likely to be problematic
McCullough is 100% right that Cease would likely providing something Atlanta could definitely use: bulk innings and plenty of them. He noted that Cease still has quality raw stuff and has made at least 32 starts every season since 2021. He is also correct that the Braves could (probably) afford to pay Cease on a long-term deal.
However, the fundamental issue here with Cease is price vs. production. Yes, Cease has been durable and his whiff rate, chase rate, and velo are intriguing, but he also posted a mid-4 ERA in two of the last three seasons with a less than ideal walk rate. For a guy predicted to get six years and $180+ million and who has Scott Boras as his agent, the price doesn’t seem to match up with what the Braves would be getting in return including the risk.
Look, we get it. Cease has been connected to the Braves a lot the last couple of years and the “local guy returning home” narrative is fun to talk about. However, signing Cease would be anything but a Black Friday bargain. In fact, he may end up being one of the values on the free agent market if he truly does end up getting $30+ million AAV on a long-term contract.