TOPSHOT – Personnel use a Royal Air Force (RAF) Chinook helicopter to lower bags of aggregate to reinforce the damaged spillway of the Toddbrook Reservoir dam above the town of Whaley Bridge in northern England on August 2, 2019. – Emergency services continued work to repair a damaged dam they fear could collapse as hundreds of evacuated residents of the northern town of Whaley Bridge spent the night away from home. (Photo by Roland HARRISON / AFP) (Photo by ROLAND HARRISON/AFP via Getty Images)
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Only urgent and radical action can prevent systemic breakdown affecting our economy, food supply and national security. This was the stark message from the U.K.’s first national emergency briefing on climate and nature to policymakers this week.
The briefing’s central message was unequivocal. The foundations of Britain’s economy, security and governance no longer make sense in a world being rapidly destabilised by climate and biodiversity breakdown. Ten experts, spanning science, economics, food, medicine, security and civil society, were comprehensive and clear that this is not a moment for idealism, but for immediate action and risk management. Several speakers noted it is above all a moment that demands political courage.
The Time For Incrementalism Is Over
Broadcaster and environmental campaigner Chris Packham CBE opened the event by urging politicians to rise above division and misinformation, imploring them to treat the climate and nature emergency with the seriousness of any national crisis. Chair of the session, Professor Mike Berners-Lee echoed this by asking for a World War II level of leadership. Every speaker converged on the same conclusion, delaying action or making only incremental changes are no longer aligned with physical reality, financial prudence, or national security.
The scientific consensus presented was stark and unyielding. The world is heading for 2°C of warming by 2050, with a “small but real” chance of 4°C by century’s end. A level climate scientist Professor Kevin Anderson described as “far beyond the safe zone that has nurtured our civilisation,” leading to “unprecedented societal and ecological collapse.”
WRAYSBURY, UNITED KINGDOM – JANUARY 10: A resident carries her pet dog to her parent’s home as the impact of flooding continues to impact the lives of those living on the banks of the River Thames, on January 10, 2024 in Wraysbury, United Kingdom. Rising water levels along certain parts of the Thames riverside have caused substantial impacts on homes and businesses, leading to the evacuation of vulnerable residents in the flood-hit village of Wraysbury. At the same time, the entire stretch of the river in Surrey is under warnings. (Photo by Leon Neal/Getty Images)
Getty ImagesA New Era of National Security Threats Emerges
Scientific leaders from security, health, and finance all framed climate and nature breakdown in terms of compounding, systemic risk. The kind that breaks markets and overwhelms states.
“We’re facing the potential of an unguardable state unless Government takes this seriously,” Lieutenant general (ret’d) Richard Nugee shared. ”Climate shocks fuel global instability,” and climate change is a “threat multiplier,” making existing threats worse, more frequent, and introducing new threats.
He described a shifting threat picture and how the climate crisis is reshaping Britain’s security environment faster than predicted. He referenced NATO Article 3, highlighting that each member country needs to be resilient to withstand major shocks, “whether they are military, natural disasters or other crises.”
What concerns Nugee most though is not any single crisis but “crises cascading together. Food, health, infrastructure, migration, energy, extreme weather all hitting at the same time,” and Government systems and institutions not just being strained, but overwhelmed.
Those who think about nature as a walk in the park, or cut flowers in a vase, had a wake up call too. “Nature is critical, national infrastructure,” shared University of Oxford Professor Nathalie Seddon. The U.K. has lost 50% of its biodiversity since the industrial revolution and sits in the bottom 10% globally for biodiversity. This isn’t just ecological loss, it’s a direct threat to national resilience. Four escalating risks were highlighted that stem from this; food security, infrastructure, public health and economic stability. From declining soil health to flooding, nature degradation and chronic illnesses, nature loss is a national security threat.
Technology Will Not Save Us From Governance Failure
The reliance on technological optimism as a rationale for political and corporate delay was highlighted by Professor Kevin Anderson. He noted that carbon capture and storage, often used as a solution and rationale for delaying fossil fuel regulation, currently stores just 0.03% of annual fossil-fuel CO₂, in spite of decades of investment.
Anderson differentiated these examples of “delay technologies” with “timely technologies” such as heat pumps, electric vehicles, public transport, and electrification, which should be should be urgently deployed at scale, ‘Marshall’-style, he said.
Economist Angela Francis argued Britain is stuck because its markets still reward the fossil-era economy. “The market rules are not driving right outcomes, and the old world is not making way for the new,” she said, as she systematically debunked thought-processes that are slowing down the transition.
“We need to align incentives, so standards, taxes, subsidies and procurement, all back the businesses that are investing and innovating to reduce risk,” she shared. As clean alternatives are developed, then old technologies should be phased out. “We need to highlight risks, not elimate them. Risks move people.” Francis concluded that this “has to work for lower income households. They are the key to public acceptance.”
Food Is the Fragile Backbone of National Stability
All speakers referenced food in some way, underlining the fragility of our food systems, and how unprepared we are for what is to come. Professor Paul Behrens highlighted that the U.K.’s three worst harvests on record have occurred in the past five years, and 80% of British farmers say climate change is seriously threatening their ability to make a living. 54% of food that ends up on Briton’s plates is grown in the U.K., and 25% of food imported comes from the mediterranean, a climate change hotspot.
Estate Director of the Euston Estate farm Andrew Blenkiron speaks to journalist about his expectations regarding a drop in yields of 50 percent for the crops they are unable to irrigate, as he stands by a field of forage maize which has largely failed to germinate due to lack of rain, in Euston, outside Thetford, on August 10, 2022. – Skyrocketing energy prices, drought and historic heatwaves are all heavily affecting the Euston Estate farm, who has been forced to make painful choices to save part of his crop. The electricity bill for the 4,250-hectare Euston estate, 130km northeast of London, will quadruple this year to “£370,000” (438,000 euros), manager Andrew Blenkiron told AFP. This is the consequence of the tripling of tariffs but also of the need to pump more water to cope with the weather, at a time when part of the UK is once again experiencing temperatures of over 30°C. (Photo by William EDWARDS / AFP) (Photo by WILLIAM EDWARDS/AFP via Getty Images)
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Food shortages will lead to price increases, and the real political risk is food price inflation, for families already struggling. “When families can’t afford to feed their children, societies break down,” warned Behrens. A food supply crisis could cause civil unrest in the U.K. within the next decade 40% of food security experts say, showing the interconnectedness of nature, food and national security.
85% of total agricultural land in the U.K. is used for animal agriculture, which isn’t resilient or sustainable Behrens advised. However, we already have the solution, a move to healthy plant-rich diets, that can still include some meat and dairy, but far less than currently consumed. Behrens acknowledged this shift is politically difficult to talk about, but warned we will be forced into this anyway.
This ‘great food transformation’ is something that scientists, medical experts and food systems leaders have been talking about for years. Behrens clocked up a ‘win counter’ totalling 15 wins from a shift to healthy plant-rich diets, from saving NHS money to increasing agricultural income, improving mental health and providing carbon storage.
Positive Tipping Points Are Real And Achievable
Professor Tim Lenton was frank about tipping points accelerating collapse. Some, like the decline of coral reefs, have already passed, with others such as mountain glaciers and ice sheets at risk as our world warms. However, he also highlighted that positive tipping point transformations can happen faster than expected too.
DURHAM, ENGLAND – AUGUST 17: The last of the coal to be extracted is loaded onto plant machinery on the final day of mining operations at the Bradley Open Cast Mine on August 17, 2020 in Durham, England. The Banks Group, who own the mine had applied for permission to extend the life of its last mine in England until 2021 but the application was turned down earlier this summer. The last coal will be extracted today, two months after its sister site at Shotton in Northumberland ended its own coal production. The closure leaves only the Hartington mine in Derbyshire, which had planned to shut at the start of the month, as the last surface mine operating in England. (Photo by Ian Forsyth/Getty Images)
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While the phase out of fossil fuels is proving difficult, transitioning energy in the U.K. has happened in our recent history. A combination of market forces, regulations, and government policies lead to the decline of coal use in the U.K. Once a modest carbon price made it unprofitable, a government-triggered tipping point reshaped an entire sector within a decade.
What Is Stopping Us? We Aren’t Wired For The Risks
Climate change is slow enough to ignore, but fast enough to insidiously overwhelm. “Humans aren’t wired to manage indeterminate, medium-term risks,” shared professor of intensive care medicine, Hugh Montgomery, capturing the behavioural challenge. For business leaders and policymakers, his message was clear. When it comes to the climate crisis, the absence of panic is not a signal of safety, with 12 of 20 key health indicators now at unprecedented levels.
“I know what an emergency looks like, and I know how to respond to an emergency,” Montgomery said, a physician with over 30 years of experience, who was part of the medical response to the London 7/7 terrorist bombing and COVID19 pandemic. Climate change “is an emergency,” he went on, and “the climate emergency is a health emergency.”
The New Leadership Requirement: Courage
The thread running through every presentation at the first U.K. national emergency briefing, from security experts to climate modellers to economists, was not simply data, but courage. Chris Packham highlighted that there are lots of good people, but that the world “will be lost by a lot of good people doing nothing.”
The climate and nature crises are a governance stress test, an economic fault line, and a national security priority. Experts agreed that the U.K. has the tools to navigate this transition, with credible technologies, a strong scientific base, and proven examples of policy-driven transformation. What seems to be missing is the political will to move at emergency speed. “In the military you learn to face the threat that is in front of you, not the threat as you would wish it to be,” Richard Nugee shared. “We have to plan realistically for a future others cannot see or would rather not wish to imagine.” The question posed to policymakers this week was simple. Will we make the necessary changes before the window to choose closes?