This post reflects the common assumption that raising the money supply (to lower rates by buying bonds) is the prime cause of *commodity* price inflation. Inflation in this view is driven by excess demand, not limited supply. The greater effect of low interest rates on *asset* prices is overlooked.
In an alternative view, demand “inflation” largely affects asset prices, not commodity prices. Money from the Treasury’s purchase of bonds goes into the coffers of wealthy bondholders, banks, and corporations. They recycle this as assets or loans to purchase assets. With exceptions for commodities purchased on credit like homes and cars, it’s just as likely that increasing the supply of money has a greater influence on the current inflation of speculative assets like stocks or cryptocurrency (and, increasingly, housing purchased by speculative buyers).
The oft-cited commodity inflation of the 1970s was more likely a supply problem, caused by cartel-induced shortages of Middle Eastern oil and the downstream effects of higher energy prices in the extraction, refining, manufacturing, distribution, and sale of all commodities. Volcker brought inflation under “control” by strangling the durable goods and housing sectors, raising unemployment. The market eventually adjusted to stable higher energy prices, cooling inflation.
If successful, Trump’s lust for controlling independent agencies (like so much else) will reap a bonanza for holders of speculative assets. Not so much consumers of beef. His high tariff policy, however, will indeed briefly raise commodity prices before its effects cool, as well.