The stage is set.

The Seattle Seahawks and Los Angles Rams both held serve on Sunday, with the Hawks prevailing for an 18-16 win over the Indianapolis Colts and the Rams outlasting the Detroit Lions 41-34.

Seattle Seahawks win: Instant Reaction | Observations | Stacy’s column | Recap | Box Score

That means the Seahawks (11-3) and Rams (11-3) remain tied atop the NFC West heading into Thursday night’s high-stakes showdown at Lumen Field, where Seattle will look to avenge last month’s 21-19 loss to L.A.

And don’t forget about the San Francisco 49ers (10-4), who handled the Tennessee Titans 37-24 on Sunday to stay just one game back of the Seahawks and Rams in the razor-tight NFC West race.

NFL standings

Elsewhere in the NFC, the Green Bay Packers (9-4-1) lost to the AFC-leading Denver Broncos. That means three of the NFC’s top four records now belong to NFC West teams. The Seahawks and Rams are tied for the NFC’s best record, while the 49ers and Chicago Bears (10-4) share the conference’s third-best mark.

According to The Athletic’s NFL Playoff Simulator, there’s now a 95% chance that the NFC’s No. 1 seed will go to an NFC West team. The Rams have a 56% chance of claiming the NFC’s top seed, followed by the Seahawks at 28%, the 49ers at 11% and the Bears at 4%.

The No. 1 seed, of course, comes with two major advantages: the conference’s lone first-round bye and home-field advantage through the NFC playoffs. And keep in mind, the NFL’s playoff format awards the conference’s top four seeds to the four division winners, so the best a non-division winner can be seeded is No. 5.

In other words, the NFC West champion might only need to win two home playoff games to reach the Super Bowl, while the division’s second-place and third-place teams would probably have to string together three consecutive road playoff victories.

That all underscores the magnitude of Thursday night’s titanic Seahawks-Rams clash.

The current NFC playoff picture

Here’s how the playoff picture currently looks in the NFC:

No. 1 seed: Los Angeles Rams – 11-3 (NFC West leader)
No. 2 seed: Chicago Bears – 10-4 (NFC North leader)
No. 3 seed: Philadelphia Eagles – 9-5 (NFC East leader)
No. 4 seed: Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 7-7 (NFC South leader)
No. 5 seed: Seattle Seahawks – 11-3 (top NFC wild card)
No. 6 seed: San Francisco 49ers – 10-4 (second NFC wild card)
No. 7 seed: Green Bay Packers – 9-4-1 (third NFC wild card)

In the hunt: Detroit Lions (8-6), Carolina Panthers (7-7), Dallas Cowboys (6-7-1)

If the playoffs began today, the No. 5 seed Seahawks would travel to face the No. 4 seed Buccaneers in the wild-card round. In the other wild-card round matchups, the No. 2 seed Bears would host the No. 7 seed Packers and the No. 3 seed Eagles would host the No. 6 seed 49ers.

As the No. 1 seed, the Rams would receive a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.

What the odds say

According to The Athletic’s NFL Playoff Simulator, the Rams currently have a 60% chance to win the NFC West, followed by the Seahawks at 29% and the 49ers at 12%.

The Seahawks’ NFC West title odds would jump to 54% if they beat the Rams in Week 16, but they would plummet to just 1% if they lose that game. If the Seahawks beat both the Rams in Week 16 and the 49ers in Week 18, their division title odds would surge to 84%.

And if the Seahawks win each of their final three games to finish 14-3, they would claim their first NFC West crown since 2020 and their first No. 1 seed since their back-to-back 2013 and 2014 Super Bowl runs.

Roster Moves: Seattle Seahawks activate 3 players, place 1 on IR